Selection bias: neighbourhood controls and controls selected from those presenting to a Health Unit in a case control study of efficacy of BCG revaccination.

BACKGROUND: In most case control studies the hardest decision is the choice of the control group, as in the ideal control group the proportion exposed is the same as in the population that produced the cases. METHODS: A comparison of two control groups in a case control study of the efficacy of BCG revaccination. One group was selected from subjects presenting to the heath unit the case attended for routine prevention and care; the second group was selected from the neighbourhood of cases. All Health Units from which controls were selected offered BCG revaccination. Efficacy estimated in a randomized control trial of BCG revaccination was used to establish that the neighbourhood control group was the one that gave unbiased results. RESULTS: The proportion of controls with scars indicating BCG revaccination was higher among the control group selected from Health Unit attenders than among neighbourhood controls. This excess was not removed after control for social variables and history of exposure to tuberculosis, and appears to have resulted from the fact that people attending the Health Unit were more likely to have been revaccinated than neighbourhood controls, although we can not exclude an effect of other unmeasured variables. CONCLUSION: In this study, controls selected from people presenting to a Health Unit overrepresented exposure to BCG revaccination. Had the results from the HU attenders control group been accepted this would have resulted in overestimation of vaccine efficacy. When the exposure of interest is offered in a health facility, selection of controls from attenders at the facility may result in over representation of exposure in controls and selection bias

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Population Risk of Congenital Microcephaly in Pernambuco State, Brazil.

Since an outbreak in Brazil, which started in 2015, Zika has been recognized as an important cause of microcephaly. The highest burden of this outbreak was in northeast Brazil, including the state of Pernambuco. The prevalence of congenital microcephaly in Pernambuco state was estimated from the RESP (Registro de Eventos em Saúde Pública) surveillance system, from August 2015 to August 2016 inclusive. The denominators were estimated at the municipality level from official demographic data. Microcephaly was defined as a neonatal head circumference below the 3rd percentile of the Intergrowth standards. Smoothed maps of the prevalence of microcephaly were obtained from a Bayesian model which was conditional autoregressive (CAR) in space, and first order autoregressive in time. A total of 742 cases were identified. Additionally, high and early occurrences were identified in the Recife Metropolitan Region, on the coast, and in a north-south band about 300 km inland. Over a substantial part of the state, the overall prevalence, aggregating over the study period, was above 0.5%. The reasons for the high occurrence in the inland area remain unclear

A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.Instituto do Milenio REDE-TBConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq)Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES)Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP)Fundacao de Amparo a Ciencia e Tecnologia do Estado de Pernambuco (FACEPE)[0012-05.03/04]Fundacao de Amparo a Ciencia e Tecnologia do Estado de Pernambuco (FACEPE)[0203-1.05/08

Early epilepsy in children with Zika-related microcephaly in a cohort in Recife, Brazil: Characteristics, electroencephalographic findings, and treatment response.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence of epilepsy in children with Zika-related microcephaly in the first 24 months of life; to characterize the associated clinical and electrographic findings; and to summarize the treatment responses. METHODS: We followed a cohort of children, born during the 2015-2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in Brazil, with congenital microcephaly and evidence of congenital ZIKV infection on neuroimaging and/or laboratory testing. Neurological assessments were performed at ≤3, 6, 12, 15, 18, 21, and 24 months of life. Serial electroencephalograms were performed over the first 24 months. RESULTS: We evaluated 91 children, of whom 48 were female. In this study sample, the cumulative incidence of epilepsy was 71.4% in the first 24 months, and the main type of seizure was infantile spasms (83.1%). The highest incidence of seizures occurred between 3 and 9 months of age, and the risk remained high until 15 months of age. The incidence of infantile spasms peaked between 4 and 7 months and was followed by an increased incidence of focal epilepsy cases after 12 months of age. Neuroimaging results were available for all children, and 100% were abnormal. Cortical abnormalities were identified in 78.4% of the 74 children evaluated by computed tomography and 100% of the 53 children evaluated by magnetic resonance imaging. Overall, only 46.1% of the 65 children with epilepsy responded to treatment. The most commonly used medication was sodium valproate with or without benzodiazepines, levetiracetam, phenobarbital, and vigabatrin. SIGNIFICANCE: Zika-related microcephaly was associated with high risk of early epilepsy. Seizures typically began after the third month of life, usually as infantile spasms, with atypical electroencephalographic abnormalities. The seizure control rate was low. The onset of seizures in the second year was less frequent and, when it occurred, presented as focal epilepsy

From Re-Emergence to Hyperendemicity: The Natural History of the Dengue Epidemic in Brazil

The spread of dengue virus is a major public health problem. Though the burden of dengue has historically been concentrated in Southeast Asian countries, Brazil has become the country that reports the largest number of cases in the world. While prior to 2007 the disease affected mostly adults, during the 2007 epidemic the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases more than doubled, and over 53% of cases were in children under 15 years of age. In this paper, we propose that the conditions for the shift were being set gradually since the re-introduction of dengue in 1986 and that they represent the transition from re-emergence to hyperendemicity. Using data from an age stratified seroprevalence study conducted in Recife, we estimated the force of infection (a measure of transmission intensity) between 1986–2006 and used these estimates to simulate the accumulation of immunity since the re-emergence. As the length of time that dengue has circulated increases, adults have a lower probability of remaining susceptible to primary or secondary infection and thus, cases become on average younger. If in fact the shift represents the transition from re-emergence to hyperendemicity, similar shifts are likely to be observed in the rest of Brazil, the American continent and other regions where transmission emerges

Spatial point analysis based on dengue surveys at household level in central Brazil

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dengue virus (DENV) affects nonimunne human populations in tropical and subtropical regions. In the Americas, dengue has drastically increased in the last two decades and Brazil is considered one of the most affected countries. The high frequency of asymptomatic infection makes difficult to estimate prevalence of infection using registered cases and to locate high risk intra-urban area at population level. The goal of this spatial point analysis was to identify potential high-risk intra-urban areas of dengue, using data collected at household level from surveys.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two household surveys took place in the city of Goiania (~1.1 million population), Central Brazil in the year 2001 and 2002. First survey screened 1,586 asymptomatic individuals older than 5 years of age. Second survey 2,906 asymptomatic volunteers, same age-groups, were selected by multistage sampling (census tracts; blocks; households) using available digital maps. Sera from participants were tested by dengue virus-specific IgM/IgG by EIA. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to detect the spatial varying risk over the region. Initially without any fixed covariates, to depict the overall risk map, followed by a model including the main covariates and the year, where the resulting maps show the risk associated with living place, controlled for the individual risk factors. This method has the advantage to generate smoothed risk factors maps, adjusted by socio-demographic covariates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of antibody against dengue infection was 37.3% (95%CI [35.5–39.1]) in the year 2002; 7.8% increase in one-year interval. The spatial variation in risk of dengue infection significantly changed when comparing 2001 with 2002, (ORadjusted = 1.35; p < 0.001), while controlling for potential confounders using GAM model. Also increasing age and low education levels were associated with dengue infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study showed spatial heterogeneity in the risk areas of dengue when using a spatial multivariate approach in a short time interval. Data from household surveys pointed out that low prevalence areas in 2001 surveys shifted to high-risk area in consecutive year. This mapping of dengue risks should give insights for control interventions in urban areas.</p

Prevalence and risk factors for Hepatitis C and HIV-1 infections among pregnant women in Central Brazil

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hepatitis C (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections are a major burden to public health worldwide. Routine antenatal HIV-1 screening to prevent maternal-infant transmission is universally recommended. Our objectives were to evaluate the prevalence of and potential risk factors for HCV and HIV infection among pregnant women who attended prenatal care under the coverage of public health in Central Brazil.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Screening and counselling for HIV and HCV infections was offered free of charge to all pregnant women attending antenatal clinic (ANC) in the public health system, in Goiania city (~1.1 million inhabitants) during 2004–2005. Initial screening was performed on a dried blood spot collected onto standard filter paper; positive or indeterminate results were confirmed by a second blood sample. HCV infection was defined as a positive or indeterminate sample (EIA test) and confirmed HCV-RNA technique. HIV infection was defined according to standard criteria. Factors associated with HIV and HCV infections were identified with logistic regression. The number needed to screen (NNS) to prevent one case of infant HIV infection was calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 28,561 pregnant women were screened for HCV and HIV-1 in ANC. Mean maternal age was 23.9 years (SD = 5.6), with 45% of the women experiencing their first pregnancy. Prevalence of HCV infection was 0.15% (95% CI 0.11%–0.20%), and the risk increased with age (p < 0.01). The prevalence of anti-HIV infection was 0.09% (95% CI 0.06%–0.14%). Black women had a 4.9-fold (95% CI 1.42–16.95) greater risk of HIV-1 infection compared to non-black women. NNS to prevent one case of infant HIV infection ranged from 4,141 to 13,928.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The prevalence of HIV and HCV infections were low among pregnant women, with high acceptability rates in the opt-in strategy in primary care. Older maternal age was a risk factor for HCV and antenatal HCV testing does not fulfill the requirements for screening recommendation. The finding of higher risk of HIV-1 infection among black women despite being in consonance with the HIV-1 ethnic pattern in some American regions cannot be ruled out to be a surrogate marker of socio-economic condition.</p