Real Wages and Labor-saving Technical Change: Evidence from a Panel of Manufacturing Industries in Mature and Labor-surplus Economies

This paper uses panel cointegration and error correction models to unveil the direction of long-run causality between the real product wage and labor productivity at the industry level. I use two datasets of manufacturing industries: the EU-Klems dataset covering 11 industries in 19 developed economies, and the Unido Industrial Statistics Database covering 22 industries in 30 developed and developing economies. In both datasets, I find evidence of cointegration between the two variables, as well as evidence of two-way, long-run Granger causality. These findings are consistent with theories of directed technical change, which claim that a rise in labor costs sparks the adoption of labor-saving innovations. They are also consistent with distributive theories whereby real wages keep apace of labor productivity growth, giving rise to long-run stability in functional distribution

An empirical analysis of Minsky regimes in the US economy

In this paper we analyze Minskian dynamics in the US economy via an empirical application of Minsky’s financing regime classifications to a panel of nonfinancial corporations. First, we map Minsky’s definitions of hedge, speculative and Ponzi finance onto firm-level data to describe the evolution of Minskian regimes. We highlight striking growth in the share of Ponzi firms in the post-1970 US, concentrated among small corporations. This secular growth in the incidence of Ponzi firms is consistent with the possibility of a long wave of increasingly fragile finance in the US economy. Second, we explore the possibility of short-run Minskian dynamics at a business-cycle frequency. Using linear probability models relating firms’ probability of being Ponzi to the aggregate output gap, which captures short-term macroeconomic fluctuations exogenous to individual firms, we find that aggregate downturns are correlated with an al- most zero increased probability that firms are Ponzi. This result is corroborated by quantile regressions using a continuous measure of financial fragility, the interest coverage ratio, which identify almost zero effects of short-term fluctuations on financial fragility across the interest coverage distribution. Together, these results speak to an important question in the theoretical literature on financial fragility regarding the duration of Minskian cycles, and lend support, in particular, to the contention that Minskian dynamics may take the form of long waves, but do not operate at business cycle frequencies

The Empirical Analysis of Minsky Regimes in the U.S. Economy

In this paper we analyze Minskian dynamics in the US economy via an empirical application of Minsky’s financing regime classifications to a panel of nonfinancial corporations. First, we map Minsky’s definitions of hedge, speculative and Ponzi finance onto firm-level data to describe the evolution of Minskian regimes. We highlight striking growth in the share of Ponzi firms in the post-1970 US, concentrated among small corporations. This secular growth in the incidence of Ponzi firms is consistent with the possibility of a long wave of increasingly fragile finance in the US economy. Second, we explore the possibility of short-run Minskian dynamics at a business-cycle frequency. Using linear probability models relating firms’ probability of being Ponzi to the aggregate output gap, which captures short-term macroeconomic fluctuations exogenous to individual firms, we find that aggregate downturns are correlated with an almost zero increased probability that firms are Ponzi. This result is corroborated by quantile regressions using a continuous measure of financial fragility, the interest coverage ratio, which identify almost zero effects of short-term fluctuations on financial fragility across the interest coverage distribution. Together, these results speak to an important question in the theoretical literature on financial fragility regarding the duration of Minskian cycles, and lend support, in particular, to the contention that Minskian dynamics may take the form of long waves, but do not operate at business cycle frequencies

Monitoramento da população do besouro Rhynchophorus palmarum em dendezais no município de Igarapé-Açu, Pará.

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Avaliação de iscas e armadilhas para captura de Rhynchophorus palmarum em dendezais.

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Dormência múltipla e efeito maternal na germinação de sementes de Miconia ferruginata (Melastomataceae), Serra de Caldas Novas, Goiás, Brasil

Species with mostly asexual reproduction are interesting subjects for germination studies since variation would be more easily linked to environmental factors. Miconia ferruginata DC. is an apomictic treelet in Brazilian cerrado areas on rocky outcrops. Germination of seeds collected from individuals occurring in the Serra de Caldas Novas State Park, Goiás, was studied in three experiments under controlled conditions. Germination characteristics differed among individuals and were correlated with altitude and soil Al content. Seeds from plants growing at lower altitudes, with lower soil aluminium content, presented malformed seeds with absence of embryo which rendered lower, but better synchronized germination. The nested analysis showed that from the total variance, 78.14% for germinability, 54.56% for uncertainty of the germination process, and 68.30% for the quantity of seeds without embryo was attributed to the altitudinal effect. Individuals nested within altitude contributed up to 16.93% for the total variance. It means that there is low variability among individuals of the same altitude and high variability among individuals from different points of the slope, making clear that for the studied population the environmental effect is stronger than the genetic component to determine the seed quality. The testa of the seeds provides a mechanical dormancy which seems to be associated also with phenolic compounds, which help to disperse germination through time. Photoblastism was also registered for seeds of this species.Espécies com reprodução principalmente assexuada são interessantes para estudos de germinação, uma vez que a variação pode ser mais facilmente associada a fatores ambientais. Miconia ferruginata DC. é um arbusto apomítico de cerrado rupestre brasileiro. A germinação de sementes coletadas no Parque Estadual da Serra de Caldas Novas, Goiás foi estudada em três experimentos sob condições de laboratório. O processo de germinação diferiu entre os indivíduos, correlacionando-se com altitude e teor de Al do solo. Sementes oriundas de plantas crescendo nas menores altitudes, com menor teor de alumínio no solo, apresentaram sementes mal formadas, com ausência de embrião, resultando em baixa germinabilidade, mas maior sincronia de germinação. A análise hierárquica mostrou que 78,14% da variabilidade na germinabilidade, 54,56% na incerteza e 68,30% na quantidade de sementes sem embrião foram atribuídos ao efeito altitudinal. Indivíduos agrupados dentro de altitude contribuíram até 16,93% para a variância total. Isto significa que há baixa variabilidade entre indivíduos da mesma altitude e alta variabilidade entre indivíduos de diferentes pontos da Serra, indicando que para a população estudada o efeito ambiental é mais forte do que o componente genético para determinar a qualidade das sementes. A testa das sementes propiciou dormência mecânica que parece estar associada com a presença de compostos fenólicos, o que ajuda a dispersar a germinação no tempo. Fotoblastismo também foi registrado para sementes dessa espécie.92105Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES