131 research outputs found
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Real Wages and Labor-saving Technical Change: Evidence from a Panel of Manufacturing Industries in Mature and Labor-surplus Economies
This paper uses panel cointegration and error correction models to unveil the direction of long-run causality between the real product wage and labor productivity at the industry level. I use two datasets of manufacturing industries: the EU-Klems dataset covering 11 industries in 19 developed economies, and the Unido Industrial Statistics Database covering 22 industries in 30 developed and developing economies. In both datasets, I find evidence of cointegration between the two variables, as well as evidence of two-way, long-run Granger causality. These findings are consistent with theories of directed technical change, which claim that a rise in labor costs sparks the adoption of labor-saving innovations. They are also consistent with distributive theories whereby real wages keep apace of labor productivity growth, giving rise to long-run stability in functional distribution
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An empirical analysis of Minsky regimes in the US economy
In this paper we analyze Minskian dynamics in the US economy via an empirical application of Minsky’s financing regime classifications to a panel of nonfinancial corporations. First, we map Minsky’s definitions of hedge, speculative and Ponzi finance onto firm-level data to describe the evolution of Minskian regimes. We highlight striking growth in the share of Ponzi firms in the post-1970 US, concentrated among small corporations. This secular growth in the incidence of Ponzi firms is consistent with the possibility of a long wave of increasingly fragile finance in the US economy. Second, we explore the possibility of short-run Minskian dynamics at a business-cycle frequency. Using linear probability models relating firms’ probability of being Ponzi to the aggregate output gap, which captures short-term macroeconomic fluctuations exogenous to individual firms, we find that aggregate downturns are correlated with an al- most zero increased probability that firms are Ponzi. This result is corroborated by quantile regressions using a continuous measure of financial fragility, the interest coverage ratio, which identify almost zero effects of short-term fluctuations on financial fragility across the interest coverage distribution. Together, these results speak to an important question in the theoretical literature on financial fragility regarding the duration of Minskian cycles, and lend support, in particular, to the contention that Minskian dynamics may take the form of long waves, but do not operate at business cycle frequencies
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The Empirical Analysis of Minsky Regimes in the U.S. Economy
In this paper we analyze Minskian dynamics in the US economy via an empirical application of Minsky’s financing regime classifications to a panel of nonfinancial corporations. First, we map Minsky’s definitions of hedge, speculative and Ponzi finance onto firm-level data to describe the evolution of Minskian regimes. We highlight striking growth in the share of Ponzi firms in the post-1970 US, concentrated among small corporations. This secular growth in the incidence of Ponzi firms is consistent with the possibility of a long wave of increasingly fragile finance in the US economy. Second, we explore the possibility of short-run Minskian dynamics at a business-cycle frequency. Using linear probability models relating firms’ probability of being Ponzi to the aggregate output gap, which captures short-term macroeconomic fluctuations exogenous to individual firms, we find that aggregate downturns are correlated with an almost zero increased probability that firms are Ponzi. This result is corroborated by quantile regressions using a continuous measure of financial fragility, the interest coverage ratio, which identify almost zero effects of short-term fluctuations on financial fragility across the interest coverage distribution. Together, these results speak to an important question in the theoretical literature on financial fragility regarding the duration of Minskian cycles, and lend support, in particular, to the contention that Minskian dynamics may take the form of long waves, but do not operate at business cycle frequencies
Studies of the mass composition of cosmic rays and proton-proton interaction cross-sections at ultra-high energies with the Pierre Auger Observatory
In this work, we present an estimate of the cosmic-ray mass composition from the distributions of the depth of the shower maximum (Xmax) measured by the fluorescence detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory. We discuss the sensitivity of the mass composition measurements to the uncertainties in the properties of the hadronic interactions, particularly in the predictions of the particle interaction cross-sections. For this purpose, we adjust the fractions of cosmic-ray mass groups to fit the data with Xmax distributions from air shower simulations. We modify the proton-proton cross-sections at ultra-high energies, and the corresponding air shower simulations with rescaled nucleus-air cross-sections are obtained via Glauber theory. We compare the energy-dependent composition of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays obtained for the different extrapolations of the proton-proton cross-sections from low-energy accelerator data
Study of downward Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes with the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory
The surface detector (SD) of the Pierre Auger Observatory, consisting of 1660 water-Cherenkov detectors (WCDs), covers 3000 km2 in the Argentinian pampa. Thanks to the high efficiency of WCDs in detecting gamma rays, it represents a unique instrument for studying downward Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) over a large area. Peculiar events, likely related to downward TGFs, were detected at the Auger Observatory. Their experimental signature and time evolution are very different from those of a shower produced by an ultrahigh-energy cosmic ray. They happen in coincidence with low thunderclouds and lightning, and their large deposited energy at the ground is compatible with that of a standard downward TGF with the source a few kilometers above the ground. A new trigger algorithm to increase the TGF-like event statistics was installed in the whole array. The study of the performance of the new trigger system during the lightning season is ongoing and will provide a handle to develop improved algorithms to implement in the Auger upgraded electronic boards. The available data sample, even if small, can give important clues about the TGF production models, in particular, the shape of WCD signals. Moreover, the SD allows us to observe more than one point in the TGF beam, providing information on the emission angle
Investigating multiple elves and halos above strong lightning with the fluorescence detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory
ELVES are being studied since 2013 with the twenty-four FD Telescopes of the Pierre Auger Observatory, in the province of Mendoza (Argentina), the world’s largest facility for the study of ultra-high energy cosmic rays. This study exploits a dedicated trigger and extended readout. Since December 2020, this trigger has been extended to the three High levation Auger Telescopes (HEAT), which observe the night sky at elevation angles between 30 and 60 degrees, allowing a study of ELVES from closer lightning. The high time resolution of the Auger telescopes allows us to upgrade reconstruction algorithms and to do detailed studies on multiple ELVES. The origin of multiple elves can be studied by analyzing the time difference and the amplitude ratio between flashes and comparing them with the properties of radio signals detected by the ENTLN lightning network since 2018. A fraction of multi-ELVES can also be interpreted as halos following ELVES.
Halos are disc-shaped light transients emitted at 70-80 km altitudes, appearing at the center of the ELVES rings, due to the rearrangement of electric charges at the base of the ionosphere after a strong lightning event
The dynamic range of the upgraded surface-detector stations of AugerPrime
The detection of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays by means of giant detector arrays is often limited by the saturation of the recorded signals near the impact point of the shower core at the ground, where the particle density dramatically increases. The saturation affects in particular the highest energy events, worsening the systematic uncertainties in the reconstruction of the shower characteristics. The upgrade of the Pierre Auger Observatory, called AugerPrime, includes the installation of an 1-inch Small PhotoMultiplier Tube (SPMT) inside each water-Cherenkov station (WCD) of the surface detector array. The SPMT allows an unambiguous measurement of signals down to about 250m from the shower core, thus reducing the number of events featuring a saturated station to a negligible level. In addition, a 3.8m2 plastic scintillator (Scintillator Surface Detector, SSD) is installed on top of each WCD. The SSD is designed to match the WCD (with SPMT) dynamic range, providing a complementary measurement of the shower components up to the highest energies. In this work, the design and performances of the upgraded AugerPrime surface-detector stations in the extended dynamic range are described, highlighting the accuracy of the measurements. A first analysis employing the unsaturated signals in the event reconstruction is also presented
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