Forecasting Australian Macroeconomic variables, evaluating innovations state space approaches

Innovations state space time series models that encapsulate the exponential smoothing methodology have been shown to be an accurate forecasting tool. These models for the first time are applied to Australian macroeconomic data. In addition new multivariate specifications are outlined and demonstrated to be accurate.exponential smoothing, state space models, multivariate time series, macroeconomic variables

Vortex configurations and metastability in mesoscopic superconductors

The vortex dynamics in mesoscopic superconducting cylinders with rectangular cross section under an axially applied magnetic field is investigated in the multivortex London regime. The rectangles considered range from a square up to an infinite slab. The flux distribution and total flux carried by a vortex placed in an arbitrary position of the sample is calculated analytically by assuming Clem's solution for the vortex core. The Bean-Livingston energy barrier is also analytically calculated in this framework. A Langevin algorithm simulates the flux penetration and dynamical evolution of the vortices as the external field is slowly cycled. The simulated magnetization process is governed by metastable states. The magnetization curves are hysteretic, with paramagnetic response in part of the downward branch, and present a series of peaks corresponding to the entry or expulsion of a single vortex. For elongated rectangles, the vortices arrange themselves into parallel vortex chains and an additional modulation of the magnetization, corresponding to creation or destruction of a vortex chain, comes out.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures. Presented on the III European Conference on Vortex Matter in Superconductors, Crete, 2003. To appear in Physica

Counting Integer flows in Networks

This paper discusses new analytic algorithms and software for the enumeration of all integer flows inside a network. Concrete applications abound in graph theory \cite{Jaeger}, representation theory \cite{kirillov}, and statistics \cite{persi}. Our methods clearly surpass traditional exhaustive enumeration and other algorithms and can even yield formulas when the input data contains some parameters. These methods are based on the study of rational functions with poles on arrangements of hyperplanes

Going green: does it depend on education, gender, or income?

Sustainable development entails meeting our present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. This requires us to treat economic, social and environmental aspects in an integrated way, but little is known about the nature of individual preferences towards the trade-offs involved in this effort. For the first time, we study individual preferences towards the environment, social wellbeing, and financial wellbeing using a survey of over 1400 households in the Netherlands. Using nonparametric, parametric, and matching methods, we find that gender and education are important factors for sustainability rather than income levels. Moreover results indicate that educated females put the greatest value on going green whilst being socially minded.Sustainability, financial wellbeing, heterogenous preferences