Outcome prediction for improvement of trauma care

The main aim of this thesis is to evaluate, develop and validate models for predicting fatal and non-fatal outcome after trauma in the Netherlands. The dissertation addresses the following questions: I. How can we improve and use prediction models for fatal outcome after trauma? II. To what extent can we predict non-fatal outcome after trauma

Health care and productivity costs of non-fatal traffic injuries: A comparison of road user types

This study aimed to provide a detailed overview of the health care and productivity costs of non-fatal road traffic injuries by road user type. In a cohort study in the Netherlands, adult injury patients admitted to a hospital as a result of a traffic accident completed questionnaires 1 week and 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after injury, including the iMTA Medical Consumption and Productivity Cost Questionnaire. In-hospital, post-hospital medical costs and productivity costs were calculated up to two years after traffic injury. In total, 1024 patients were included in this study. The mean health care costs per patient were € 8200. The mean productivity costs were € 5900. Being female, older age, with higher injury severity and having multiple comorbidities were associated with higher health care costs. Higher injury severity and being male were associated with higher productivity costs. Pedestrians aged ≥ 65 years had the highest mean health care costs (€ 18,800) and motorcyclists the highest mean productivity costs (€ 9000). Bicycle injuries occurred most often in our sample (n = 554, 54.1%) and accounted for the highest total health care and productivity costs. Considering the high proportion of total costs incurred by bicycle injuries, this is an important area for the prevention of traffic injuries

Performance of the modified TRISS for evaluating trauma care in subpopulations: A cohort study

Introduction: Previous research showed that there is no agreement on a practically applicable model to use in the evaluation of trauma care. A modification of the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (modified TRISS) is used to evaluate trauma care in the Netherlands. The aim of this study w

Prognostic factors for medical and productivity costs, and return to work after trauma

Aim The aim of this study was to determine prognostic factors for medical and productivity costs, and return to work (RTW) during the first two years after trauma in a clinical trauma population. Methods This prospective multicentre observational study followed all adult trauma patients (≥18 years) admitted to a hospital in Noord-Brabant, the Netherlands from August 2015 through November 2016. Health care consumption, productivity loss and return to work were measured in questionnaires at 1 week, 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after injury. Data was linked with hospital registries. Prognostic factors for medical costs and productivity costs were analysed with log-linked gamma generalized linear models. Prognostic factors for RTW were assessed with Cox proportional hazards model. The predictive ability of the models was assessed with McFadden R2 (explained variance) and c-statistics (discrimination). Results A total of 3785 trauma patients (39% of total study population) responded to at least one follow-up questionnaire. Mean medical costs per patient (€9,710) and mean productivity costs per patient (€9,000) varied widely. Prognostic factors for high medical costs were higher age, female gender, spine injury, lower extremity injury, severe head injury, high injury severity, comorbidities, and pre-injury health status. Productivity costs were highest in males, and in patients with spinal cord injury, high injury severity, longer length of stay at the hospital and patients admitted to the ICU. Prognostic factors for RTW were high educational level, male gender, low injury severity, shorter length of stay at the hospital and absence of comorbidity. Conclusions Productivity costs and RTW should be considered when assessing the economic impact of injury in addition to medical costs. Prognostic factors may assist in identifying high cost groups with potentially modifiable factors for targeted preventive interventions, hence reducing costs and increasing RTW rates

Health care costs of injury in the older population: a prospective multicentre cohort study in the Netherlands

Background: With the ageing population, the number of older trauma patients has increased. The aim of this study was to assess non-surgical health care costs of older trauma patients and to identify which characteristics of older trauma patients were associated with high health care costs. Methods: Trauma patients aged ≥65 years who were admitted to a hospital in Noord-Brabant, the Netherlands, were included in the Brabant Injury Outcome Surveillance (BIOS) study. Non-surgical in-hospital and up to 24- months post-hospital health care use were obtained from hospital registration data and collected with the iMTA Medical Consumption Questionnaire which patients completed 1 week and 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after injury. Log-linked gamma generalized linear models were used to identify cost-driving factors. Results: A total of 1910 patients were included in the study. Mean total health care costs per patient were €12,190 ranging from €8390 for 65–69 year-olds to €15,550 for those older than 90 years. Main cost drivers were the posthospital costs due to home care and stay at an institution. Falls (72%) and traffic injury (15%) contributed most to the total health care costs, although costs of cause of trauma varied with age and sex. In-hospital costs were especially high in patients with high injury severity, frailty and comorbidities. Age, female sex, injury severity, frailty, having comorbidities and having a hip fracture were independently associated with higher post-hospital health care costs. Conclusions: In-hospital health care costs were chiefly associated with high injury severity. Several patient and injury characteristics including age, high injury severity, frailty and comorbidity were associated with post-hospital health care costs. Both fall-related injuries and traffic-related injuries are important areas for prevention of injury in the older population

Prognostic factors for recovery of health status after injury: A prospective multicentre cohort study

Objectives To determine prognostic factors for health status and recovery patterns during the first 2 years after injury in the clinical trauma population. Design A prospective longitudinal cohort study. Setting Ten participating hospitals in Brabant, the Netherlands. Participants Injured adult patients admitted to a hospital between August 2015 and November 2016 were followed: 4883 (50%) patients participated. Main outcome measures Primary outcome was health status, measured with the EuroQol-5-dimensions-3-levels (EQ-5D), including a cognition item and the EuroQol Visual Analogue Scale. Health status was collected at 1 week, 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after injury. Potential prognostic factors were based on literature and clinical experience (eg, age, sex, pre-injury frailty (Groningen Frailty Index), pre-injury EQ-5D). Results Health status increased mainly during the first 6 months after injury with a mean EQ-5D utility score at 1 week of 0.49 and 0.79 at 24 months. The dimensions mobility, pain/discomfort and usual activities improved up to 2 years after injury. Lower pre-injury health status, frailty and longer length of stay at the hospital were important prognostic factors for poor recovery. Spine injury, lower and upper extremity injury showed to be prognostic factors for problems after injury. Traumatic brain injury was a prognostic factor for cognitive problems. Conclusion This study contributes to the increase in knowledge of health recovery after injury. It could be a starting point to develop prediction models for specific injury classifications and implementation of personalised medicine. Trial registration number NCT02508675

Prediction of Cognitive Recovery after Stroke:The Value of Diffusion-Weighted Imaging–Based Measures of Brain Connectivity

Background and Purpose: Prediction of long-term recovery of a poststroke cognitive disorder (PSCD) is currently inaccurate. We assessed whether diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)–based measures of brain connectivity predict cognitive recovery 1 year after stroke in patients with PSCD in addition to conventional clinical, neuropsychological, and imaging variables. Methods: This prospective monocenter cohort study included 217 consecutive patients with a clinical diagnosis of ischemic stroke, aged ≥50 years, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment score below 26 during hospitalization. Five weeks after stroke, patients underwent DWI magnetic resonance imaging. Neuropsychological assessment was performed 5 weeks and 1 year after stroke and was used to classify PSCD as absent, modest, or marked. Cognitive recovery was operationalized as a shift to a better PSCD category over time. We evaluated 4 DWI-based measures of brain connectivity: global network efficiency and mean connectivity strength, both weighted for mean diffusivity and fractional anisotropy. Conventional predictors were age, sex, level of education, clinical stroke characteristics, neuropsychological variables, and magnetic resonance imaging findings (eg, infarct size). DWI-based measures of brain connectivity were added to a multivariable model to assess additive predictive value. Results: Of 135 patients (mean age, 71 years; 95 men [70%]) with PSCD 5 weeks after ischemic stroke, 41 (30%) showed cognitive recovery. Three of 4 brain connectivity measures met the predefined threshold of P<0.1 in univariable regression analysis. There was no added value of these measures to a multivariable model that included level of education and infarct size as significant predictors of cognitive recovery. Conclusions: Current DWI-based measures of brain connectivity appear to predict recovery of PSCD but at present have no added value over conventional predictors

Effect of frailty on quality of life in elderly patients after hip fracture:A longitudinal study

Objectives The aims of this study were to examine the pattern of changes over time in health status (HS) and quality of life (QoL) in the first year after hip fracture and to quantify the association between frailty at the onset of hip fracture and the change in HS and QoL 1 year later. The major hypothesis was that frailty, a clinical state of increased vulnerability, is a good predictor of QoL in patients recovering from hip fracture. Design Prospective, observational, follow-up cohort study. Setting Secondary care. Ten participating centres in Brabant, the Netherlands. Participants 1091 patients entered the study and 696 patients completed the study. Patients with a hip fracture aged 65 years and older or proxy respondents for patients with cognitive impairment were included in this study. Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were HS (EuroQol-5 Dimensions questionnaire) and capability well-being (ICEpop CAPability measure for Older people). Prefracture frailty was defined with the Groningen Frailty Indicator (GFI), with GFI >= 4 indicating frailty. Participants were followed up at 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 1 year after hospital admission. Results In total, 371 patients (53.3%) were considered frail. Frailty was negatively associated with HS (beta -0.333; 95% CI -0.366 to -0.299), self-rated health (beta -21.9; 95% CI -24.2 to -19.6) and capability well-being (beta -0.296; 95% CI -0.322 to -0.270) in elderly patients 1 year after hip fracture. After adjusting for confounders, including death, prefracture HS, age, prefracture residential status, prefracture mobility, American Society of Anesthesiologists grading and dementia, associations were weakened but remained significant. Conclusions We revealed that frailty is negatively associated with QoL 1 year after hip fracture, even after adjusting for confounders. This finding suggests that early identification of prefracture frailty in patients with a hip fracture is important for prognostic counselling, care planning and the tailoring of treatment

Health status and psychological outcomes after trauma: A prospective multicenter cohort study

Introduction Survival after trauma has considerably improved. This warrants research on non-fatal outcome. We aimed to identify characteristics associated with both short and long-term health status (HS) after trauma and to describe the recovery patterns of HS and psychological outcomes during 24 months of follow-up. Methods Hospitalized patients with all types of injuries were included. Data were collected at 1 week 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months post-trauma. HS was assessed with the EuroQol-5D-3L (EQ-5D3L) and the Health Utilities Index Mark 2 and 3 (HUI2/3). For the screening of symptoms of post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression, the Impact of Event Scale (IES) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) subscale anxiety (HADSA) and subscale depression (HADSD) were used. Recovery patterns of HS and psychological outcomes were examined with linear mixed model analyses. Results A total of 4,883 patients participated (median age 68 (Interquartile range 53–80); 50% response rate). The mean (Standard Deviation (SD)) pre-injury EQ-5D-3L score was 0.85 (0.23). One week post-trauma, mean (SD) EQ-5D-3L, HUI2 and HUI3 scores were 0.49 (0.32), 0.61 (0.22) and 0.38 (0.31), respectively. These scores significantly improved to 0.77 (0.26), 0.77 (0.21) and 0.62 (0.35), respectively, at 24 months. Most recovery occurred up until 3 months. At long-term follow-up, patients of higher age, with comorbidities, longer hospital stay, lower extremity fracture and spine injury showed lower HS. The mean (SD) scores of the IES, HADSA and HADSD were respectively 14.80 (15.80), 4.92 (3.98) and 5.00 (4.28), respectively, at 1 week post-trauma and slightly improved over 24 months post-trauma to 10.35 (14.72), 4.31 (3.76) and 3.62 (3.87), respectively. Discussion HS and psychological symptoms improved over time and most improvements occurred within 3 months post-trauma. The effects of severity and type of injury faded out over time. Patients frequently reported symptoms of post-traumatic stress. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02508675

Health status and psychological outcomes after trauma: A prospective multicenter cohort study.

IntroductionSurvival after trauma has considerably improved. This warrants research on non-fatal outcome. We aimed to identify characteristics associated with both short and long-term health status (HS) after trauma and to describe the recovery patterns of HS and psychological outcomes during 24 months of follow-up.MethodsHospitalized patients with all types of injuries were included. Data were collected at 1 week 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months post-trauma. HS was assessed with the EuroQol-5D-3L (EQ-5D-3L) and the Health Utilities Index Mark 2 and 3 (HUI2/3). For the screening of symptoms of post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression, the Impact of Event Scale (IES) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) subscale anxiety (HADSA) and subscale depression (HADSD) were used. Recovery patterns of HS and psychological outcomes were examined with linear mixed model analyses.ResultsA total of 4,883 patients participated (median age 68 (Interquartile range 53-80); 50% response rate). The mean (Standard Deviation (SD)) pre-injury EQ-5D-3L score was 0.85 (0.23). One week post-trauma, mean (SD) EQ-5D-3L, HUI2 and HUI3 scores were 0.49 (0.32), 0.61 (0.22) and 0.38 (0.31), respectively. These scores significantly improved to 0.77 (0.26), 0.77 (0.21) and 0.62 (0.35), respectively, at 24 months. Most recovery occurred up until 3 months. At long-term follow-up, patients of higher age, with comorbidities, longer hospital stay, lower extremity fracture and spine injury showed lower HS. The mean (SD) scores of the IES, HADSA and HADSD were respectively 14.80 (15.80), 4.92 (3.98) and 5.00 (4.28), respectively, at 1 week post-trauma and slightly improved over 24 months post-trauma to 10.35 (14.72), 4.31 (3.76) and 3.62 (3.87), respectively.DiscussionHS and psychological symptoms improved over time and most improvements occurred within 3 months post-trauma. The effects of severity and type of injury faded out over time. Patients frequently reported symptoms of post-traumatic stress.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02508675