How do solar photovoltaic feed-in tariffs interact with solar panel and silicon prices? An empirical study

Preferential feed-in tariffs (FITs) for solar generated electricity increases the demand for solar photovoltaic systems. They can thus induce price to increase, creating the potential for PV systems producers to collect rents. This paper analyses the interactions between feed-in tariffs, silicon prices and module prices, using weekly price data and FIT values in Germany, Italy, Spain, and France from January 2005 to May 2012. Relying methodologically on the Granger causality tests applied to vector autoregressive models, we show that since the end of the period of silicon shortage in 2009, module price variations cause changes in FITs, and not the reverse. This is good news as it suggests that the regulators have been able to prevent FITs to inflate module prices

Innovation and international technology transfer: The case of the Chinese photovoltaic industry

CERNA WORKING PAPER SERIES 2010-12International audienceChina is the largest solar photovoltaic cell producer in the world, with more than one third of worldwide production in 2008, exporting more than 95 percent of what it produces. The purpose of this paper is to understand the drivers of this success and its limits, with a particular emphasis on the role of technology transfers and innovation. Our analysis combines a review of international patent data at a detailed technology level with field interviews of ten Chinese PV companies. We show that Chinese producers have acquired the technologies and skills necessary to produce PV products through two main channels: the purchasing of manufacturing equipment in a competitive international market and the recruitment of skilled executives from the Chinese diaspora who built pioneer PV firms. The success of these firms in their market is, however, not reflected in their performance in terms of innovation. Rather, patent data rather highlight a policy-driven effort to catch up in critical technological areas

Innovation and international technology transfer: The case of the Chinese photovoltaic industry

China is the largest solar photovoltaic cell producer in the world, with more than one third of worldwide production in 2008, exporting more than 95 percent of what it produces. The purpose of this paper is to understand the drivers of this success and its limits, with a particular emphasis on the role of technology transfers and innovation. Our analysis combines a review of international patent data at a detailed technology level with field interviews of ten Chinese PV companies. We show that Chinese producers have acquired the technologies and skills necessary to produce PV products through two main channels: the purchasing of manufacturing equipment in a competitive international market and the recruitment of skilled executives from the Chinese diaspora who built pioneer PV firms. The success of these firms in their market is, however, not reflected in their performance in terms of innovation. Rather, patent data rather highlight a policy-driven effort to catch up in critical technological areas.Solar photovoltaic energy; technology diffusion; technology transfer; China

Analyse économique de l’industrie photovoltaïque : mondialisation, dynamique des coûts, et politiques publiques

In the last decade, the photovoltaic market was multiplied by 10, module price was reduced by 60%, and China increased its share in cell and module production from almost nothing to more than half. The purpose of this thesis is to shed light on the mechanisms driving these transformations. We analyse how China managed to acquire the photovoltaic technology, relying on interviews with actors of the Chinese photovoltaic industry, and data gathered on patents related to the photovoltaic technology. We show that intellectual property rights did not play a significant role, Chinese firms getting access to the technology by buying manufacturing equipment from industrialised countries, and from labour mobility. The cost decrease is analysed with experience curves models, allowing us to forecast a further cost decrease of two thirds by 2020, provided that the market follows the high predicted expansion. It gives some insight regarding when photovoltaic technology will become competitive. An important attention is dedicated to feed-in tariffs which largely participated in driving the demand so far. Their influence on the photovoltaic market, and their ability to adapt to module price volatility to avoid too attractive profits, is analysed using weekly data. A theoretical model analysing the influence of firms' strategies on the incentive effect of feed-in tariffs allows us to give further recommendations concerning an optimal feed-in tariff scheme.Au cours de la dernière décennie, le marché photovoltaïque a été multiplié par 10, le prix des panneaux solaires réduit de 60%, et la Chine est devenue le premier producteur mondial. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'identifier les mécanismes à l'origine de ces fortes mutations. Grâce à des entretiens auprès d'acteurs de l'industrie photovoltaïque chinoise, et l'analyse de données de brevets, nous expliquons comment la Chine a réussi à acquérir la technologie et le savoir-faire nécessaires à ce succès. Le transfert de technologie a eu lieu grâce au déploiement du marché d'équipement de production et au recrutement de cadres formés dans les pays industrialisés. En revanche, la propriété intellectuelle n'a joué aucun rôle. L'analyse de l'évolution du coût des modules grâce au modèle de courbe d'apprentissage nous permet de prédire une réduction du coût de deux tiers d'ici à 2020. Elle donne des indications quant à la future compétitivité de l'électricité photovoltaïque. Enfin, une attention particulière est portée aux tarifs de rachat de l'électricité, qui ont largement contribué au développement du marché photovoltaïque. Nous analysons leur influence sur le marché et leur capacité à s'adapter à la volatilité du prix des modules, en analysant des séries temporelles. Nous construisons aussi un modèle théorique pour analyser l'influence du comportement stratégique des entreprises sur l'efficacité d'un tarif de rachat. Cela permet de suggérer des recommandations quant à la conception de ces instruments incitatifs

Economic analysis of the photovoltaic industry : globalisation, price dynamics, and incentive policies

Au cours de la dernière décennie, le marché photovoltaïque a été multiplié par 10, le prix des panneaux solaires réduit de 60%, et la Chine est devenue le premier producteur mondial. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'identifier les mécanismes à l'origine de ces fortes mutations. Grâce à des entretiens auprès d'acteurs de l'industrie photovoltaïque chinoise, et l'analyse de données de brevets, nous expliquons comment la Chine a réussi à acquérir la technologie et le savoir-faire nécessaires à ce succès. Le transfert de technologie a eu lieu grâce au déploiement du marché d'équipement de production et au recrutement de cadres formés dans les pays industrialisés. En revanche, la propriété intellectuelle n'a joué aucun rôle. L'analyse de l'évolution du coût des modules grâce au modèle de courbe d'apprentissage nous permet de prédire une réduction du coût de deux tiers d'ici à 2020. Elle donne des indications quant à la future compétitivité de l'électricité photovoltaïque. Enfin, une attention particulière est portée aux tarifs de rachat de l'électricité, qui ont largement contribué au développement du marché photovoltaïque. Nous analysons leur influence sur le marché et leur capacité à s'adapter à la volatilité du prix des modules, en analysant des séries temporelles. Nous construisons aussi un modèle théorique pour analyser l'influence du comportement stratégique des entreprises sur l'efficacité d'un tarif de rachat. Cela permet de suggérer des recommandations quant à la conception de ces instruments incitatifs.In the last decade, the photovoltaic market was multiplied by 10, module price was reduced by 60%, and China increased its share in cell and module production from almost nothing to more than half. The purpose of this thesis is to shed light on the mechanisms driving these transformations. We analyse how China managed to acquire the photovoltaic technology, relying on interviews with actors of the Chinese photovoltaic industry, and data gathered on patents related to the photovoltaic technology. We show that intellectual property rights did not play a significant role, Chinese firms getting access to the technology by buying manufacturing equipment from industrialised countries, and from labour mobility. The cost decrease is analysed with experience curves models, allowing us to forecast a further cost decrease of two thirds by 2020, provided that the market follows the high predicted expansion. It gives some insight regarding when photovoltaic technology will become competitive. An important attention is dedicated to feed-in tariffs which largely participated in driving the demand so far. Their influence on the photovoltaic market, and their ability to adapt to module price volatility to avoid too attractive profits, is analysed using weekly data. A theoretical model analysing the influence of firms' strategies on the incentive effect of feed-in tariffs allows us to give further recommendations concerning an optimal feed-in tariff scheme

Predicting the costs of photovoltaic solar modules in 2020 using experience curve models

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