COVID outcome prediction in the emergency department (COPE):using retrospective Dutch hospital data to develop simple and valid models for predicting mortality and need for intensive care unit admission in patients who present at the emergency department with suspected COVID-19

OBJECTIVES: Develop simple and valid models for predicting mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in patients who present at the emergency department (ED) with suspected COVID-19.DESIGN: Retrospective.SETTING: Secondary care in four large Dutch hospitals.PARTICIPANTS: Patients who presented at the ED and were admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. We used 5831 first-wave patients who presented between March and August 2020 for model development and 3252 second-wave patients who presented between September and December 2020 for model validation.OUTCOME MEASURES: We developed separate logistic regression models for in-hospital death and for need for ICU admission, both within 28 days after hospital admission. Based on prior literature, we considered quickly and objectively obtainable patient characteristics, vital parameters and blood test values as predictors. We assessed model performance by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and by calibration plots.RESULTS: Of 5831 first-wave patients, 629 (10.8%) died within 28 days after admission. ICU admission was fully recorded for 2633 first-wave patients in 2 hospitals, with 214 (8.1%) ICU admissions within 28 days. A simple model-COVID outcome prediction in the emergency department (COPE)-with age, respiratory rate, C reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin and urea captured most of the ability to predict death. COPE was well calibrated and showed good discrimination for mortality in second-wave patients (AUC in four hospitals: 0.82 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.86); 0.82 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.90); 0.79 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.88); 0.83 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.86)). COPE was also able to identify patients at high risk of needing ICU admission in second-wave patients (AUC in two hospitals: 0.84 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.90); 0.81 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.95)).CONCLUSIONS: COPE is a simple tool that is well able to predict mortality and need for ICU admission in patients who present to the ED with suspected COVID-19 and may help patients and doctors in decision making.</p

The effects of conventional extracorporeal circulation versus miniaturized extracorporeal circulation on microcirculation during cardiopulmonary bypass-assisted coronary artery bypass graft surgery

OBJECTIVES: To reduce the complications associated with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) during cardiac surgery, many modifications have been made to conventional extracorporeal circulation systems. This trend has led to the development of miniaturized extracorporeal circulation systems. Cardiac surgery using conventional extracorporeal circulation systems has been associated with significantly reduced microcirculatory perfusion, but it remains unknown whether this could be prevented by an mECC system. Here, we aimed to test the hypothesis that microcirculatory perfusion decreases with the use of a conventional extracorporeal circulation system and would be preserved with the use of an miniaturized extracorporeal circulation system. METHODS: Microcirculatory density and perfusion were assessed using sublingual side stream dark-field imaging in patients undergoing on-pump coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery before, during and after the use of either a conventional extracorporeal circulation system (n = 10) or a miniaturized extracorporeal circulation system (n = 10). In addition, plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and creatinine levels and creatinine clearance were assessed up to 5 days post-surgery to monitor renal function. RESULTS: At the end of the CPB, one patient in the miniaturized extracorporeal circulation-treated group and five patients in the conventional extracorporeal circulation-treated group received one bag of packed red blood cells (300 ml). During the CPB, the haematocrit and haemoglobin levels were slightly higher in the miniaturized extracorporeal circulation-treated patients compared with the conventional extracorporeal circulation-treated patients (27.7 +/- 3.3 vs 24.7 +/- 2.0%; P = 0.03; and 6.42 +/- 0.75 vs 5.41 +/- 0.64 mmol/1; P <0.01). The density of perfused vessels with a diameter <25 mu m (i.e. perfused vessel density) decreased slightly in the conventional extracorporeal circulation-treated group from 16.4 +/- 3.8 to 12.8 +/- 3.3 mm/mm(2) (P <0.01) and remained stable in the miniaturized extracorporeal circulation-treated group (16.3 +/- 2.7 and 15.2 +/- 2.9 mm/mm(2) before and during the pump, respectively). Plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin levels were increased following the use of extracorporeal circulation in both groups, and no differences were observed between the groups. Plasma creatinine levels and creatinine clearance were not affected by CABG surgery or CPB. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this relatively small study suggest that the use of the miniaturized extracorporeal circulation system is associated with a statistically significant (but clinically insignificant) reduction in haemodilution and microcirculatory hypoperfusion compared with the use of the conventional extracorporeal circulation syste

COVID outcome prediction in the emergency department (COPE):using retrospective Dutch hospital data to develop simple and valid models for predicting mortality and need for intensive care unit admission in patients who present at the emergency department with suspected COVID-19

OBJECTIVES: Develop simple and valid models for predicting mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in patients who present at the emergency department (ED) with suspected COVID-19.DESIGN: Retrospective.SETTING: Secondary care in four large Dutch hospitals.PARTICIPANTS: Patients who presented at the ED and were admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. We used 5831 first-wave patients who presented between March and August 2020 for model development and 3252 second-wave patients who presented between September and December 2020 for model validation.OUTCOME MEASURES: We developed separate logistic regression models for in-hospital death and for need for ICU admission, both within 28 days after hospital admission. Based on prior literature, we considered quickly and objectively obtainable patient characteristics, vital parameters and blood test values as predictors. We assessed model performance by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and by calibration plots.RESULTS: Of 5831 first-wave patients, 629 (10.8%) died within 28 days after admission. ICU admission was fully recorded for 2633 first-wave patients in 2 hospitals, with 214 (8.1%) ICU admissions within 28 days. A simple model-COVID outcome prediction in the emergency department (COPE)-with age, respiratory rate, C reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin and urea captured most of the ability to predict death. COPE was well calibrated and showed good discrimination for mortality in second-wave patients (AUC in four hospitals: 0.82 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.86); 0.82 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.90); 0.79 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.88); 0.83 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.86)). COPE was also able to identify patients at high risk of needing ICU admission in second-wave patients (AUC in two hospitals: 0.84 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.90); 0.81 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.95)).CONCLUSIONS: COPE is a simple tool that is well able to predict mortality and need for ICU admission in patients who present to the ED with suspected COVID-19 and may help patients and doctors in decision making.</p

Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin Measured on Clinical Laboratory Platforms for the Prediction of Acute Kidney Injury and the Associated Need for Dialysis Therapy: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Rationale & Objective: The usefulness of mea- sures of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) in urine or plasma obtained on clinical laboratory platforms for predicting acute kidney injury (AKI) and AKI requiring dialysis (AKI-D) has not been fully evaluated. We sought to quantitatively summarize published data to evaluate the value of urinary and plasma NGAL for kidney risk prediction. Study Design: Literature-based meta-analysis and individual-study-data meta-analysis of diagnostic studies following PRISMA-IPD guidelines. Setting & Study Populations: Studies of adults investigating AKI, severe AKI, and AKI-D in the setting of cardiac surgery, intensive care, or emergency department care using either urinary or plasma NGAL measured on clinical laboratory platforms. Selection Criteria for Studies: PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Scopus, and congress abstracts ever published through February 2020 reporting diagnostic test studies of NGAL measured on clinical laboratory plat- forms to predict AKI. Data Extraction: Individual-study-data meta- analysis was accomplished by giving authors data specifications tailored to their studies and requesting standardized patient-level data analysis. Analytical Approach: Individual-study-data meta- analysis used a bivariate time-to-event model for interval-censored data from which discriminative ability (AUC) was characterized. NGAL cutoff concentrations at 95% sensitivity, 95% specificity, and optimal sensitivity and specificity were also estimated. Models incorporated as confounders the clinical setting and use versus nonuse of urine output as a criterion for AKI. A i literature-based meta-analysis was also performed for all published studies including those for which the authors were unable to provide individual-study data analyses. Results: We included 52 observational studies involving 13,040 patients. We analyzed 30 data sets for the individual-study-data meta-analysis. For AKI, severe AKI, and AKI-D, numbers of j events were 837, 304, and 103 for analyses of urinary NGAL, respectively; these values were 705, 271, and 178 for analyses of plasma NGAL. Discriminative performance was similar in both meta-analyses. Individual-study-data meta-analysis AUCs for urinary NGAL were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.76) and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.79-0.81) for severe AKI and AKI-D, respectively; for plasma NGAL, the corresponding AUCs were 0.80 (95% CI, 0.79- 0.81) and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.84-0.86). Cutoff concentrations at 95% specificity for urinary NGAL were >580 ng/mL with 27% sensitivity for severe AKI and >589 ng/mL with 24% sensitivity for AKI-D. Corresponding cutoffs for plasma NGAL were >364 ng/mL with 44% sensitivity and >546 ng/mL with 26% sensitivity, respectively. Limitations: Practice variability in initiation of dialysis. Imperfect harmonization of data across studies. Conclusions: Urinary and plasma NGAL con- centrations may identify patients at high risk for AKI in clinical research and practice. The cutoff concentrations reported in this study require prospective evaluation