Industry Stakeholder Recommendations for DOE's RD&D for Increasing Energy Efficiency in Existing Homes

This technical report documents feedback for Industry Stakeholders on the direction of future U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) research and development in the area of improving energy efficiency in existing residential buildings

An Expert System-Driven Method for Parametric Trajectory Optimization During Conceptual Design

During the early phases of engineering design, the costs committed are high, costs incurred are low, and the design freedom is high. It is well documented that decisions made in these early design phases drive the entire design's life cycle cost. In a traditional paradigm, key design decisions are made when little is known about the design. As the design matures, design changes become more difficult in both cost and schedule to enact. The current capability-based paradigm, which has emerged because of the constrained economic environment, calls for the infusion of knowledge usually acquired during later design phases into earlier design phases, i.e. bringing knowledge acquired during preliminary and detailed design into pre-conceptual and conceptual design. An area of critical importance to launch vehicle design is the optimization of its ascent trajectory, as the optimal trajectory will be able to take full advantage of the launch vehicle's capability to deliver a maximum amount of payload into orbit. Hence, the optimal ascent trajectory plays an important role in the vehicle's affordability posture yet little of the information required to successfully optimize a trajectory is known early in the design phase. Thus, the current paradigm of optimizing ascent trajectories involves generating point solutions for every change in a vehicle's design parameters. This is often a very tedious, manual, and time-consuming task for the analysts. Moreover, the trajectory design space is highly non-linear and multi-modal due to the interaction of various constraints. When these obstacles are coupled with the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), an industry standard program to optimize ascent trajectories that is difficult to use, expert trajectory analysts are required to effectively optimize a vehicle's ascent trajectory. Over the course of this paper, the authors discuss a methodology developed at NASA Marshall's Advanced Concepts Office to address these issues. The methodology is two-fold: first, capture the heuristics developed by human analysts over their many years of experience; and secondly, leverage the power of modern computing to evaluate multiple trajectories simultaneously and therefore enable the exploration of the trajectory's design space early during the pre- conceptual and conceptual phases of design. This methodology is coupled with design of experiments in order to train surrogate models, which enables trajectory design space visualization and parametric optimal ascent trajectory information to be available when early design decisions are being made

Quantifying the Efficiency and Equity Implications of Power Plant Air Pollution Control Strategies in the United States

BACKGROUND: In deciding among competing approaches for emissions control, debates often hinge on the potential tradeoffs between efficiency and equity. However, previous health benefits analyses have not formally addressed both dimensions. OBJECTIVES: We modeled the public health benefits and the change in the spatial inequality of health risk for a number of hypothetical control scenarios for power plants in the United States to determine optimal control strategies. METHODS: We simulated various ways by which emission reductions of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (particulate matter < 2.5 μm in diameter; PM(2.5)) could be distributed to reach national emissions caps. We applied a source–receptor matrix to determine the PM(2.5) concentration changes associated with each control scenario and estimated the mortality reductions. We estimated changes in the spatial inequality of health risk using the Atkinson index and other indicators, following previously derived axioms for measuring health risk inequality. RESULTS: In our baseline model, benefits ranged from 17,000–21,000 fewer premature deaths per year across control scenarios. Scenarios with greater health benefits also tended to have greater reductions in the spatial inequality of health risk, as many sources with high health benefits per unit emissions of SO(2) were in areas with high background PM(2.5) concentrations. Sensitivity analyses indicated that conclusions were generally robust to the choice of indicator and other model specifications. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis demonstrates an approach for formally quantifying both the magnitude and spatial distribution of health benefits of pollution control strategies, allowing for joint consideration of efficiency and equity

Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) Surrogate Models for Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) Performance Assessment

The primary purpose of the multiPOST tool is to enable the execution of much larger sets of vehicle cases to allow for broader trade space exploration. However, this exploration is not achieved solely with the increased case throughput. The multiPOST tool is applied to carry out a Design of Experiments (DOE), which is a set of cases that have been structured to capture a maximum amount of information about the design space with minimal computational effort. The results of the DOE are then used to fit a surrogate model, ultimately enabling parametric design space exploration. The approach used for the MAV study includes both DOE and surrogate modeling. First, the primary design considerations for the vehicle were used to develop the variables and ranges for the multiPOST DOE. The final set of DOE variables were carefully selected in order to capture the desired vehicle trades and take into account any special considerations for surrogate modeling. Next, the DOE sets were executed through multiPOST. Following successful completion of the DOE cases, a manual verification trial was performed. The trial involved randomly selecting cases from the DOE set and running them by hand. The results from the human analyst's run and multiPOST were then compared to ensure that the automated runs were being executed properly. Completion of the verification trials was then followed by surrogate model fitting. After fits to the multiPOST data were successfully created, the surrogate models were used as a stand-in for POST2 to carry out the desired MAV trades. Using the surrogate models in lieu of POST2 allowed for visualization of vehicle sensitivities to the input variables as well as rapid evaluation of vehicle performance. Although the models introduce some error into the output of the trade study, they were very effective at identifying areas of interest within the trade space for further refinement by human analysts. The next section will cover all of the ground rules and assumptions associated with DOE setup and multiPOST execution. Section 3.1 gives the final DOE variables and ranges, while section 3.2 addresses the POST2 specific assumptions. The results of the verification trials are given in section 4. Section 5 gives the surrogate model fitting results, including the goodness-of-fit metrics for each fit. Finally, the MAV specific results are discussed in section 6