Analisis Risiko Pembangunan Jalan Tol Pekanbaru - Dumai pada Tahap Konstruksi (Studi Kasus Jalan Tol Pekanbaru - Dumai)

Pekanbaru-Dumai highway is now an important highway, the condition of the existing road are consist of 2-lane road 2-way, predictable way Pekanbaru-Dumai will experience overcapacity in Kandis-Dumai section in 2015. To overcome this situation the toll road is planned. The investment of highway construction will always be involved in risk with certain scale, it is necessary to do the risk analysis. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the risk, measuring of risk probability point and risk impact and risk test by performing simulations using @Risk For Excel software. This research was conducted using a survey method and interview with respondents. The survey was conducted in three phases, namely: beginning survey, preliminary survey and detailed survey. Based on research conducted identified four risk factors are financing risk, construction risk, equipment risk and force majeure. These four risks are identified in the medium risk category. The influence level of risk impact to the increase of construction investment budget plan Pekanbaru-Dumai toll roads as a whole amounted to 8.07% (Rp. 1,183 trillion) with risk factor for 0,549 then classified as medium risk. While detaily 15% (Rp. 2,194 trillion) by a factor of 0.685 then risk being classified as at risk. The most sensitive risk is the risk of development

Analisis Risiko Pembangunan Jalan Tol Pada Tahap Konstruksi (Studi Kasus Jalan Tol Pekanbaru-Dumai)

The existing Pekanbaru-Dumai highway (consist of 2-lane 2-way) is as an important transportation system connecting several cities in the Riau Province. It was forecasted that thehighway would be overcapacity by the year 2015. Hence, the toll road was planned to overcome the problem. However, the investment for the construction of the toll road may involves some level of risks and uncertainties, the risk analyses procedure may put into account for managing the risks. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the project risks (during project construction phase). This study measured the value of the risk probabilities and risk impacts that may occur during this construction phase. The magnitude of each single risk is analyzed and simulated using @Risk software package. In order to obtain data input, the filed survey was conducted in two main stages e.i.; preliminary survey, and detailed survey. Then analyzed was carried out based on stochastic analyses. The result findings were then compared to the parameters published by the Puslitbang Pd-T-01-2005-B, 2005. It was identified that four major risks were influenced during the project construction phase, as follow; risk of the project finance,risk of the project construction, equipment risk and force majeure. The magnitude of the risks that may occur during project construction was identified as a medium risk category, which needs special intention to be preceded.

A New Weighting Scheme in Weighted Markov Model for Predicting the Probability of Drought Episodes

Drought is a complex stochastic natural hazard caused by prolonged shortage of rainfall. Several environmental factors are involved in determining drought classes at the specific monitoring station. Therefore, efficient sequence processing techniques are required to explore and predict the periodic information about the various episodes of drought classes. In this study, we proposed a new weighting scheme to predict the probability of various drought classes under Weighted Markov Chain (WMC) model. We provide a standardized scheme of weights for ordinal sequences of drought classifications by normalizing squared weighted Cohen Kappa. Illustrations of the proposed scheme are given by including temporal ordinal data on drought classes determined by the standardized precipitation temperature index (SPTI). Experimental results show that the proposed weighting scheme for WMC model is sufficiently flexible to address actual changes in drought classifications by restructuring the transient behavior of a Markov chain. In summary, this paper proposes a new weighting scheme to improve the accuracy of the WMC, specifically in the field of hydrology

A Passivity-Preserving Frequency-Weighted Model Order Reduction Technique

© 2004-2012 IEEE. Frequency-weighted model order reduction techniques aim to yield a reduced order model whose output matches that of the original system in the emphasized frequency region. However, passivity of the original system is only known to be preserved in the single-sided weighted case. A frequency-weighted model order reduction technique is proposed, which guarantees the passive reduced models in the double-sided weighted case. A set of easily computable error bound expressions are also presented

Antlers Characterization for Identification of Deer Species (Family Cervidae) in Indonesia

There are five species of deer (family Cervidae) living in Indonesia today. Male deer possesses antlers, a unique character of male deer. Antlers have economic values for quite a long time. Antler’s growth is influenced by several factors, therefore each species of deer have its own unique antlers’ shape and size. Antler’s identification usually relies on size measurement and overall shape of complete antlers which still attach to the skull. It is difficult to identify shed, broken or individual antler. The purpose of the research is to understand antlers’ morphological characters on each species to become diagnostic characters. Specimens analysed were collections of LIPI and were analysed with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) using PAST3 software. The results showed each species of deer having their own unique antlers’ character, and so it can be used to determine the species of Indonesian deer. The important structures for identification are relief, pedicle, brow, bez, and main beam