The Impacts of Economic Reforms and Trade Liberalisation on Agricultural Export Performance in Pakistan

Economic reforms and trade liberalisation policies have been widely adopted in developing countries in recent years. Pakistan is no exception. This paper focuses on the effects of economic reform policies on the agricultural export performance. A number of studies have investigated the effects of trade liberalisation on export growth in developing countries, and have reached inconclusive results. Some studies have identified positive effects of trade liberalisation on export performance [Krueger (1997); Bleaney (1999); and Ahmed (2002)], others confirmed an insignificant or even a negative relationship [Greenaway, et al. (1994); Jenkins (1996) and Greenaway, et al. (2002)]. There are number of reasons for conflicting conclusions including different researchers have used different indicators for liberalisation and different methods to analyse the effect; difference in the extent of liberalisation studies; most studies have analysed scenarios rather than evaluating the effects, and so on. The present study analyses agricultural trade policy of Pakistan and accesses the impact of trade liberalisation on agricultural export performance, especially diversification, competitiveness, and openness. The relative importance of domestic supply related factors such as tariffs, quotas, etc. compared with external demand factors in affecting agricultural export expansion is analysed with respect to (i) relative agricultural export growth, (ii) changes in market shares of (traditional) agricultural exports, and (iii) changes in the export commodity composition.

The Role of Agricultural Growth in South Asian Countries and the Affordability of Food: An Inter-country Analysis

Agriculture is the mainstay of the most developing countries, which supplies food and employment to the majority of the population. Because of the dominance of the agricultural sector, a sufficient supply of domestic food is indispensable to support stable socio-economic and political systems in these countries. To attain a sustained growth of agricultural productivity, sufficient investment in the agricultural sector is crucial, particularly in the initial stages of economic development. This increases agricultural production and as a result, there is a shift in (human) resources from the agricultural sector to the industrial and services sectors. According to Duranton (1998), in order to transform from agricultural sector to industrial sector a significant increase in the agricultural sector productivity is necessary. On the demand-side, the growth in agricultural production increases agricultural income which leads to increase in the demand for industrial products; whereas on the supplyside, the increase in the agricultural productivity shifts human resources from the agricultural to the industrial sector [Jorgenson (1967)]. Economists have further explained these interdependences and linkages between agricultural and industrial sectors. According to Kaldor’s (1978) two-sector model, agricultural and industrial sectors supply inputs to each other and provide market for their outputs but differ in a number of ways. The agricultural sector has disguised unemployment and produces consumer goods for competitive markets, while industrial sector produces investment goods which are sold in imperfectly competitive markets at mark-up prices.

Tombstones of Fallen Heroes

This paper is based on fieldwork which I carried out in Sindh, Pakistan, from December 2007 to February 2008. The main objective of the study was to document and delineate two graveyards and their contents which are located in two different districts of Sindh, one in Thatta and the other in Tando Muhammad Khan. After discussing the origin of the term ‘chaukhandi’ as applied to a type of tombs present in the area I present the two graveyards, discussing the meanings of motifs that decorate the tombstones in both places. I also discuss the role of the tribes associated with these graveyards in the tribal history of Sindh and the battles in which they displayed their heroism.Chaukhandi, Sindh, tombstone decoration, tribal history

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan

This paper assesses the extent to which the movements in exchange rate affect domestic wholesale and consumer prices in Pakistan by analyzing data from January 1988 to September 2003. The empirical model is a recursive VAR, suggested by McCarthy (2000), incorporating a distribution chain of pricing. Impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to measure the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices. The major findings of this paper are: (1) the exchange rate movements have only a moderate effect on domestic prices, i.e., exchange rate pass-through is low; (2) the exchange rate pass-through is more stronger in wholesale price index (WPI) relative to consumers price index (CPI); (3) the impact of pass-through on domestic prices spreads over 12 months, however, the effect is mostly felt in the first four months; (4) the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices have further weakened after the free float of Rupee/Dollar parity in July 2000; (5) within the WPI commodity groups, the exchange rate pass- through is stronger in ‘Fuel & Lighting’ and ‘Manufactures’ groups while in the case of CPI, pass-through is more pronounced in ‘Transport & Communication’ and ‘Fuel & Lighting’ group. Furthermore, the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices is much stronger in higher inflationary environment during Jan-88 to Dec-97 relative to lower inflationary environment down the road.Exchange Rate Pass-through, Domestic Prices, Impulse Response Function, Variance Decomposition

"Globalization and Regional Co-operation in South Asia: A Political and Social Economy Approach"

This paper analyzes the problems of regional co-operation in South Asia within a general political and social economy approach towards a "fractured or fragmented globalization". The word globalization, as commonly used, is largely a descriptive and not an analytical category. This paper attempts to give the term analytic content. It then focuses on both the positive and normative analysis of globalization. Trade, environment, finance and gender issues receive special attention. A global governance structure based on transparent principles of both economic efficiency and social justice is shown to be a desirable state of affairs; however, the present fractured process of globalization is more likely to end up in regionalism or even national protectionism and rivalry. Multilateral co-operation on the basis of the framework advanced here is an urgent necessity. For South Asia, such multilateral regional co-operation presents some special difficulties. But the paper argues that these difficulties, while challenging, can be overcome. The preconditions and prospects for building South Asian regional co-operation are discussed and a specific set of recommendations are offered.

Modelling of Metal-Coating Delamination Incorporating Variable Environmental Parameters

A mathematical model for metal-coat delamination of degrading metal was developed incorporating multiple variable environmental parameters. Metal-coat delamination not only depends on the electrochemical reactions at metal-coat interface but also on the factors like the type of propagating metal ions and their varying concentration with annual weather changes, time of exposure of the coated objects, type of coated objects are stationary or mobile vehicles, frequency with which certain vehicles are operating in various environments e.g. controlled or uncontrolled in terms of environmental conditions. A cutting edge model has been developed to calculate the varying environmental conditions using iteration algorithm, time dependent uncertain position of objects like vehicle in various environments using stochastic approach, effect of seasonal changes on ionic compound's concentration using algebraic method and instantaneous failure probability due to varying conditions. Based on the developed model a detailed simulation study was conducted to investigate the metal-coat delamination process and the ways to regress the under coat metal corrosion

Cooperatives and Development: Lessons from the Punjab Experience

Traditionally, cooperatives have been expected to serve a broad set of sociopolitical and economic objectives ranging from self-help and grass-root participation to welfare and distribution, including economies of scale and social control over resource allocation and mobilisation. However, these various objectives are not mutually consistent. There exists substantial trade-off in the realisation of many of these goals. It is therefore necessary to weigh their relative importance in the felt needs and priorities of a particular community at any given point of time if performance of cooperatives is to be evaluated in an appropriate context. An attempt to fulfil a range of these conflicting objectives simultaneously has eventually led to a broad based disenchantment with the cooperative movement. This paper highlights two sets of issues with respect to cooperative development. First, it discusses the concept of cooperation and illustrates that the contradictions in the ideology and practice are more significant in explaining the limitations of cooperatives to serve as an instrument of development. Second, the paper points out that in the absence of various external and internal prerequisites, especially due to the lack of their recognition, cooperatives tend to be inefficient relative to other forms of traditional institutions even after receiving subsidies and other types of assistance, thus neither achieving efficiency nor development. By analysing the area of agricultural credit, in which cooperatives have traditionally been most active in the Punjab, this paper illustrates various dilemmas and contradictions and the preconditions necessary for credit cooperatives to reach the rural poor effectively. Finally, the paper points out the implications of the past experience for the future role of cooperatives in Punjab.