Financial Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

This paper reviews the contagion effects of the global financial crises of 1997-99 on five small open economies: the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Israel and Poland. We analyze how the financial markets of these countries were effected under different exchange rate regimes. We look at the impact on exchange rates, interest rates and stock markets. In order to shed some light on the behavior of financial asset holders at times of global crises, we examine the sources of capital flows in Hungary for which country we were able to gather the detailed data necessary for such an analysis. Based on our findings, we offer some concluding remarks regarding the choice of exchange rate regime and the role of capital controls.

Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU: Comovements in the New and Old Members

It is generally recognized that countries wanting to join a monetary union should display the optimal currency area properties. One such property is the similarity of business cycles. We therefore undertook to analyze the synchronization of business cycles between the EMU and eight new EU members from Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), for which the next step to be considered in the integration process is entry into the EMU. In contrast to the usually analyzed GDP and industrial production data, we extend our analysis to the major expenditure and sectoral components of GDP and use several measures of synchronization. The main findings of the paper are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved a high degree of synchronization with the EMU for GDP, industrial production and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronization. There has been a significant increase in the synchronization of GDP and also its major components in the EMU members since the start of the run-up to EMU. While this lends support for the existence of OCA endogeneity, it can not be unambiguously attributed to it because there is also evidence of a world business cycle. Another finding is that the consumption-correlation puzzle remains, but its magnitude has greatly diminished in the EMU members, which is good news for common monetary policy.business cycle synchronization, consumption-correlation puzzle, EMU, new EU members, OCA endogeneity.

Chiral phase transition in the vector meson extended linear sigma model

In the framework of an SU(3) (axial)vector meson extended linear sigma model with additional constituent quarks and Polyakov loops, we investigate the effects of (axial)vector mesons on the chiral phase transition. The parameters of the Lagrangian are set at zero temperature and we use a hybrid approach where in the effective potential the constituent quarks are treated at one-loop level and all the mesons at tree-level. We have four order parameters, two scalar condensates and two Polyakov loop variables and their temperature and baryochemical potential dependence are determined from the corresponding field equations. We also investigate the changes of the tree-level scalar meson masses in the hot and dense medium.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figure

Existence of the critical endpoint in the vector meson extended linear sigma model

The chiral phase transition of the strongly interacting matter is investigated at nonzero temperature and baryon chemical potential mu_B within an extended (2+1) flavor Polyakov constituent quark-meson model which incorporates the effect of the vector and axial vector mesons. The effect of the fermionic vacuum and thermal fluctuations computed from the grand potential of the model is taken into account in the curvature masses of the scalar and pseudoscalar mesons. The parameters of the model are determined by comparing masses and tree-level decay widths with experimental values in a chi^2-minimization procedure which selects between various possible assignments of scalar nonet states to physical particles. We examine the restoration of the chiral symmetry by monitoring the temperature evolution of condensates and the chiral partners' masses and of the mixing angles for the pseudoscalar eta-eta' and the corresponding scalar complex. We calculate the pressure and various thermodynamical observables derived from it and compare them to the continuum extrapolated lattice results of the Wuppertal-Budapest collaboration. We study the T-mu_B phase diagram of the model and find that a critical end point exists for parameters of the model, which give acceptable values of chi^2.Comment: 21 pages, 8 color eps figures, published versio

Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic

Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with more synchronized business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced fiscal deficits increase business cycle synchronization. The Maastricht "convergence criteria," used to determine eligibility for EMU, encouraged fiscal convergence and deficit reduction. They may thus have indirectly moved Europe closer to an optimum currency area, by reducing countries’ abilities to create idiosyncratic fiscal shocks. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust

Customer Loyalty Problems in Retail Banking

According to analyses of the most business consulting companies (KPMG, Capgemini, Deloitte, TowerGroup, etc.) customers are discontented with the retail banking experience. To achieve higher business growth, banks must increase customer loyalty by delivering a distinctive experience that combines the right mix of convenience, value and service and forges an emotional bond with consumers. Winners will be those that transform themselves into customer-centric enterprises by having a clear vision of what they want to achieve, fully aligning business processes and IT infrastructure to achieve those goals and engaging their employees in the process. The first step to do it is the identification of customer satisfaction. This paper intends to reveal its essential elements.customer loyalty, customer attitudes, retail banking

Az információs társadalom jogi keretei

A dolgozat célja annak bemutatása, hogy napjaink információs forradalma milyen hatással van a társadalomra, a gazdaság szereplőire, a mindennapi életre, s e kihívások milyen jogalkotási válaszokat váltanak ki. A jogirodalomban számos olyan véleménnyel találkozhatunk, melyek szerint az informatika jegyében eltelt néhány évtized változásai következtében megért az idő egy teljesen új jogág, a számítógép jog, más nézetek szerint pedig az Internet-jog kiformálódására. A dolgozat munkahipotézise szerint azonban a "hagyományos" jogágak, a klasszikus nagy jogterületek, mint a közjog, a magánjog - illetve ennek egyes alágazatai - és a büntetőjog alkalmasak, pontosabban megfelelő beavatkozások révén alkalmassá tehetők a technikai fejlődés következtében felmerülő problémák kezelésére

Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic

Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with more synchronized business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced fiscal deficits increase business cycle synchronization. The Maastricht %u201Cconvergence criteria,%u201D used to determine eligibility for EMU, encouraged fiscal convergence and deficit reduction. They may thus have indirectly moved Europe closer to an optimum currency area, by reducing countries%u2019 abilities to create idiosyncratic fiscal shocks. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic

Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with more synchronized business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced fiscal deficits increase business cycle synchronization. The Maastricht “convergence criteria,” used to determine eligibility for EMU, encouraged fiscal convergence and deficit reduction. They may thus have indirectly moved Europe closer to an optimum currency area, by reducing countries’ abilities to create idiosyncratic fiscal shocks. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.European; monetary; union; policy; Maastricht; criteria; optimum; Mundell.