Analysis of Sentinel Node Biopsy and Clinicopathologic Features as Prognostic Factors in Patients With Atypical Melanocytic Tumors.

BACKGROUND: Atypical melanocytic tumors (AMTs) include a wide spectrum of melanocytic neoplasms that represent a challenge for clinicians due to the lack of a definitive diagnosis and the related uncertainty about their management. This study analyzed clinicopathologic features and sentinel node status as potential prognostic factors in patients with AMTs. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Clinicopathologic and follow-up data of 238 children, adolescents, and adults with histologically proved AMTs consecutively treated at 12 European centers from 2000 through 2010 were retrieved from prospectively maintained databases. The binary association between all investigated covariates was studied by evaluating the Spearman correlation coefficients, and the association between progression-free survival and all investigated covariates was evaluated using univariable Cox models. The overall survival and progression-free survival curves were established using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 126 months (interquartile range, 104-157 months). All patients received an initial diagnostic biopsy followed by wide (1 cm) excision. Sentinel node biopsy was performed in 139 patients (58.4%), 37 (26.6%) of whom had sentinel node positivity. There were 4 local recurrences, 43 regional relapses, and 8 distant metastases as first events. Six patients (2.5%) died of disease progression. Five patients who were sentinel node-negative and 3 patients who were sentinel node-positive developed distant metastases. Ten-year overall and progression-free survival rates were 97% (95% CI, 94.9%-99.2%) and 82.2% (95% CI, 77.3%-87.3%), respectively. Age, mitotic rate/mm2, mitoses at the base of the lesion, lymphovascular invasion, and 9p21 loss were factors affecting prognosis in the whole series and the sentinel node biopsy subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: Age >20 years, mitotic rate >4/mm2, mitoses at the base of the lesion, lymphovascular invasion, and 9p21 loss proved to be worse prognostic factors in patients with ATMs. Sentinel node status was not a clear prognostic predictor

The Hellenic emergency laparotomy study (HELAS): a prospective multicentre study on the outcomes of emergency laparotomy in Greece

Background Emergency laparotomy (EL) is accompanied by high post-operative morbidity and mortality which varies significantly between countries and populations. The aim of this study is to report outcomes of emergency laparotomy in Greece and to compare them with the results of the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA). Methods This is a multicentre prospective cohort study undertaken between 01.2019 and 05.2020 including consecutive patients subjected to EL in 11 Greek hospitals. EL was defined according to NELA criteria. Demographics, clinical variables, and post-operative outcomes were prospectively registered in an online database. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of post-operative mortality. Results There were 633 patients, 53.9% males, ASA class III/IV 43.6%, older than 65 years 58.6%. The most common operations were small bowel resection (20.5%), peptic ulcer repair (12.0%), adhesiolysis (11.8%) and Hartmann’s procedure (11.5%). 30-day post-operative mortality reached 16.3% and serious complications occurred in 10.9%. Factors associated with post-operative mortality were increasing age and ASA class, dependent functional status, ascites, severe sepsis, septic shock, and diabetes. HELAS cohort showed similarities with NELA patients in terms of demographics and preoperative risk. Post-operative utilisation of ICU was significantly lower in the Greek cohort (25.8% vs 56.8%) whereas 30-day post-operative mortality was significantly higher (16.3% vs 8.7%). Conclusion In this study, Greek patients experienced markedly worse mortality after emergency laparotomy compared with their British counterparts. This can be at least partly explained by underutilisation of critical care by surgical patients who are at high risk for death

Development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model for serious complications after emergency laparotomy

Purpose Emergency laparotomy (EL) is a common operation with high risk for postoperative complications, thereby requiring accurate risk stratification to manage vulnerable patients optimally. We developed and internally validated a predictive model of serious complications after EL. Methods Data for eleven carefully selected candidate predictors of 30-day postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade >  = 3) were extracted from the HELAS cohort of EL patients in 11 centres in Greece and Cyprus. Logistic regression with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) was applied for model development. Discrimination and calibration measures were estimated and clinical utility was explored with decision curve analysis (DCA). Reproducibility and heterogeneity were examined with Bootstrap-based internal validation and Internal–External Cross-Validation. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program’s (ACS-NSQIP) model was applied to the same cohort to establish a benchmark for the new model. Results From data on 633 eligible patients (175 complication events), the SErious complications After Laparotomy (SEAL) model was developed with 6 predictors (preoperative albumin, blood urea nitrogen, American Society of Anaesthesiology score, sepsis or septic shock, dependent functional status, and ascites). SEAL had good discriminative ability (optimism-corrected c-statistic: 0.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.79–0.81), calibration (optimism-corrected calibration slope: 1.01, 95% CI 0.99–1.03) and overall fit (scaled Brier score: 25.1%, 95% CI 24.1–26.1%). SEAL compared favourably with ACS-NSQIP in all metrics, including DCA across multiple risk thresholds. Conclusion SEAL is a simple and promising model for individualized risk predictions of serious complications after EL. Future external validations should appraise SEAL’s transportability across diverse settings

Factors Affecting Sentinel Node Metastasis in Thin (T1) Cutaneous Melanomas: Development and External Validation of a Predictive Nomogram

PURPOSE Thin melanomas (T1; ≤ 1 mm) constitute 70% of newly diagnosed cutaneous melanomas. Regional node metastasis determined by sentinel node biopsy (SNB) is an important prognostic factor for T1 melanoma. However, current melanoma guidelines do not provide clear indications on when to perform SNB in T1 disease and stress an individualized approach to SNB that considers all clinicopathologic risk factors. We aimed to identify determinants of sentinel node (SN) status for incorporation into an externally validated nomogram to better select patients with T1 disease for SNB. PATIENTS AND METHODS The development cohort comprised 3,666 patients with T1 disease consecutively treated at the Istituto Nazionale Tumori (Milan, Italy) between 2001 and 2018; 4,227 patients with T1 disease treated at 13 other European centers over the same period formed the validation cohort. A random forest procedure was applied to the development data set to select characteristics associated with SN status for inclusion in a multiple binary logistic model from which a nomogram was elaborated. Decision curve analyses assessed the clinical utility of the nomogram. RESULTS Of patients in the development cohort, 1,635 underwent SNB; 108 patients (6.6%) were SN positive. By univariable analysis, age, growth phase, Breslow thickness, ulceration, mitotic rate, regression, and lymphovascular invasion were significantly associated with SN status. The random forest procedure selected 6 variables (not growth phase) for inclusion in the logistic model and nomogram. The nomogram proved well calibrated and had good discriminative ability in both cohorts. Decision curve analyses revealed the superior net benefit of the nomogram compared with each individual variable included in it as well as with variables suggested by current guidelines. CONCLUSION We propose the nomogram as a decision aid in all patients with T1 melanoma being considered for SNB

Development and validation of a novel-based combination operational air quality forecasting system in Greece

In the present work, a model combination is developed in order to provide the public, in north-western Greece, with the next day air quality forecast. Generally, the development and deployment of a real-time numerical air quality prediction system is technically challenging while even more in complex terrain. The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) (http://www. cmar. csiro. au/research/tapm) is a hydrostatic prognostic mesoscale model. It has been calibrated for the area in recent studies and used in air quality assessments. In 2007, TAPM has started operating in a real-time operational mode for the prediction of next day's weather forecast, particulate matter (PM10 with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm) daily average concentration and Air Pollution Indexes. The model setup is a link up between TAPM and SKIRON modeling system (http://forecast. uoa. gr). © 2010 Springer-Verlag

Body mass index (BMI) and parameters of bone formation and resorption in postmenopausal women

Objectives: Aim of this study was to evaluate increased body mass index (BMI) as an anthropometric factor, predisposing to lower rates of bone turnover or changes in bone balance after menopause. Material and methods: For this purpose, we calculated BMI, and measured spinal (BMDSP) and femoral bone mineral density (BMDFN) and biochemical markers of bone formation (serum osteocalcin (S-OC), serum procollagen type I C propeptide (S-PICP), serum bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (S-B-ALP)) and resorption (urine N- and C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen (U-NTX-I and U-CTX-I), pyridinoline (U-PYD) and deoxypyridinoline (U-DPD)) in 130 healthy postmenopausal women, aged 46-85 years. Bone balance indices were calculated by subtracting z-scores of resorption markers from z-scores of formation markers, to evaluate bone balance. Results: S-PICP (r = -0.297, P = 0.002), S-OC (r = -0.173, P = 0.05) and bone balance indices (zPICP-zDPD) and (zPICP-zPYD) were negatively. correlated with BMI (r = -0.25, P = 0.01 and r = -0.21, P = 0.037) and with BMDSP (r = -0.196, P = 0.032 and r = -0.275 and P = 0.022). Women were grouped according to their BMI, in normals (BMI < 25 kg/m(2)), overweight (BMI = 25-30 kg/m(2)), and obese (BMI > 30 kg/m(2)). Overweight and obese women had approximately 30% lower levels of S-PICP compared to normals (68.11 +/- 24.85 and 66.41 +/- 24.93 ng/ml versus 97.47 +/- 23.36 ng/ml, respectively; P = 0.0001). zPICP-zDPD, zPICP-zCTX-I and zPICP-zPYD were significantly declined in obese women compared to normals (P = 0.0072, 0.02 and 0.0028). Conclusions: We conclude that in postmenopausal women, BMI is inversely associated with levels of collagen I formation marker, serum PICR In obesity formation of collagen I was reduced, in favor of degradation, but since this finding is not followed by simultaneous decrease in bone mineral density, it seems that increased body weight may have different effects on mature estrogen-deficient bone and extraskeletal tissues containing collagen I. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved