RELIABILITY OF OPTIONS MARKETS FOR CROP REVENUE INSURANCE RATING

Revenue insurance, only recently introduced for major crops in the U.S., has captured a considerable share of the multiple-peril insurance market. This study evaluates the predictive reliability of using price distributions inferred from options markets to rate revenue insurance products. We find for periods early in the crop growing season that price distributions inferred from options trades offer greater reliability than distributions based on historical futures trades. Options-based price distributions should receive further consideration in crop revenue insurance rating, but current administrative constraints must be considered.Risk and Uncertainty,

Fat 4-polytopes and fatter 3-spheres

We introduce the fatness parameter of a 4-dimensional polytope P, defined as \phi(P)=(f_1+f_2)/(f_0+f_3). It arises in an important open problem in 4-dimensional combinatorial geometry: Is the fatness of convex 4-polytopes bounded? We describe and analyze a hyperbolic geometry construction that produces 4-polytopes with fatness \phi(P)>5.048, as well as the first infinite family of 2-simple, 2-simplicial 4-polytopes. Moreover, using a construction via finite covering spaces of surfaces, we show that fatness is not bounded for the more general class of strongly regular CW decompositions of the 3-sphere.Comment: 12 pages, 12 figures. This version has minor changes proposed by the second refere

Differential Impact of Interference on Internally- and Externally-Directed Attention.

Attention can be oriented externally to the environment or internally to the mind, and can be derailed by interference from irrelevant information originating from either external or internal sources. However, few studies have explored the nature and underlying mechanisms of the interaction between different attentional orientations and different sources of interference. We investigated how externally- and internally-directed attention was impacted by external distraction, how this modulated internal distraction, and whether these interactions were affected by healthy aging. Healthy younger and older adults performed both an externally-oriented visual detection task and an internally-oriented mental rotation task, performed with and without auditory sound delivered through headphones. We found that the addition of auditory sound induced a significant decrease in task performance in both younger and older adults on the visual discrimination task, and this was accompanied by a shift in the type of distractions reported (from internal to external). On the internally-oriented task, auditory sound only affected performance in older adults. These results suggest that the impact of external distractions differentially impacts performance on tasks with internal, as opposed to external, attentional orientations. Further, internal distractibility is affected by the presence of external sound and increased suppression of internal distraction