Real world hospital costs following stress echocardiography in the UK: a costing study from the EVAREST/BSE-NSTEP multi-centre study

Background: Stress echocardiography is widely used to detect coronary artery disease, but little evidence on downstream hospital costs in real-world practice is available. We examined how stress echocardiography accuracy and downstream hospital costs vary across NHS hospitals and identified key factors that affect costs to help inform future clinical planning and guidelines. Methods: Data on 7636 patients recruited from 31 NHS hospitals within the UK between 2014 and 2020 as part of EVAREST/BSE-NSTEP clinical study, were used. Data included all diagnostic tests, procedures, and hospital admissions for 12 months after a stress echocardiogram and were costed using the NHS national unit costs. A decision tree was built to illustrate the clinical pathway and estimate average downstream hospital costs. Multi-level regression analysis was performed to identify variation in accuracy and costs at both patient, procedural, and hospital level. Linear regression and extrapolation were used to estimate annual hospital cost-savings associated with increasing predictive accuracy at hospital and national level. Results: Stress echocardiography accuracy varied with patient, hospital and operator characteristics. Hypertension, presence of wall motion abnormalities and higher number of hospital cardiology outpatient attendances annually reduced accuracy, adjusted odds ratio of 0.78 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.93), 0.27 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.48), 0.99 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99) respectively, whereas a prior myocardial infarction, angiotensin receptor blocker medication, and greater operator experience increased accuracy, adjusted odds ratio of 1.77 (95% CI 1.34 to 2.33), 1.64 (95% CI 1.22 to 2.22), and 1.06 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.09) respectively. Average downstream costs were £646 per patient (SD 1796) with significant variation across hospitals. The average downstream costs between the 31 hospitals varied from £384–1730 per patient. False positive and false negative tests were associated with average downstream costs of £1446 (SD £601) and £4192 (SD 3332) respectively, driven by increased non-elective hospital admissions, adjusted odds ratio 2.48 (95% CI 1.08 to 5.66), 21.06 (95% CI 10.41 to 42.59) respectively. We estimated that an increase in accuracy by 1 percentage point could save the NHS in the UK £3.2 million annually. Conclusion: This study provides real-world evidence of downstream costs associated with stress echocardiography practice in the UK and estimates how improvements in accuracy could impact healthcare expenditure in the NHS. A real-world downstream costing approach could be adopted more widely in evaluation of imaging tests and interventions to reflect actual value for money and support realistic planning

PM2.5 Pollution Strongly Predicted COVID-19 Incidence in Four High-Polluted Urbanized Italian Cities during the Pre-Lockdown and Lockdown Periods

Background: The coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19) heavily hit Italy, one of Europe’s most polluted countries. The extent to which PM pollution contributed to COVID-19 diffusion is needing further clarification. We aimed to investigate the particular matter (PM) pollution and its correlation with COVID-19 incidence across four Italian cities: Milan, Rome, Naples, and Salerno, during the pre-lockdown and lockdown periods. Methods: We performed a comparative analysis followed by correlation and regression analyses of the daily average PM10, PM2.5 concentrations, and COVID-19 incidence across four cities from 1 January 2020 to 8 April 2020, adjusting for several factors, taking a two-week time lag into account. Results: Milan had significantly higher average daily PM10 and PM2.5 levels than Rome, Naples, and Salerno. Rome, Naples, and Salerno maintained safe PM10 levels. The daily PM2.5 levels exceeded the legislative standards in all cities during the entire period. PM2.5 pollution was related to COVID-19 incidence. The PM2.5 levels and sampling rate were strong predictors of COVID-19 incidence during the pre-lockdown period. The PM2.5 levels, population’s age, and density strongly predicted COVID-19 incidence during lockdown. Conclusions: Italy serves as a noteworthy paradigm illustrating that PM2.5 pollution impacts COVID-19 spread. Even in lockdown, PM2.5 levels negatively impacted COVID-19 incidence

Diagnostic Concordance and Clinical Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Fractional Flow Reserve and Stress Echocardiography for the Assessment of Coronary Stenosis of Intermediate Severity

Background The ischemic consequences of coronary artery stenosis can be assessed by invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) or by noninvasive imaging. We sought to determine (1) the concordance between wall thickening assessment during clinically indicated stress echocardiography (SE) and FFR measurements and (2) the factors associated with hard events in these patients. Methods Two hundred twenty-three consecutive patients who underwent SE and invasive FFR measurements in close succession were analyzed retrospectively for diagnostic concordance and clinical outcomes. Results At the vessel level, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of SE for identifying significant disease as assessed by FFR was 68%, 75%, 43%, and 89%, respectively. The greatest discordance was seen in patients with wall thickening abnormalities (WTAs) and negative FFR. During a follow-up of 3.6 ± 2.2 years, there were 23 cardiovascular (CV) events (death and nonfatal myocardial infarction). The number of wall segments with inducible WTAs emerged as the strongest factor associated with CV events (hazard ratio, 1.18 [1.05-1.34]; P = .008). FFR was not associated with outcome. There was a significant increase in event rate in patients with WTA/negative FFR versus no WTA/negative FFR (P = .01), but no significant difference versus WTA/positive FFR (P = .85). Conclusions In a patient population with significant CV risk factors, a normal SE had a high negative predictive value for excluding abnormal FFR. WTAs were associated with outcomes regardless of FFR value, suggesting that this is a superior marker of ischemia to FFR