11 research outputs found
Asymptotic Optimality of Myopic Ranking and Selection Procedures
Ranking and selection (R&S) is a popular model for studying discrete-event
dynamic systems. It aims to select the best design (the design with the largest
mean performance) from a finite set, where the mean of each design is unknown
and has to be learned by samples. Great research efforts have been devoted to
this problem in the literature for developing procedures with superior
empirical performance and showing their optimality. In these efforts, myopic
procedures were popular. They select the best design using a 'naive' mechanism
of iteratively and myopically improving an approximation of the objective
measure. Although they are based on simple heuristics and lack theoretical
support, they turned out highly effective, and often achieved competitive
empirical performance compared to procedures that were proposed later and shown
to be asymptotically optimal. In this paper, we theoretically analyze these
myopic procedures and prove that they also satisfy the optimality conditions of
R&S, just like some other popular R&S methods. It explains the good performance
of myopic procedures in various numerical tests, and provides good insight into
the structure and theoretical development of efficient R&S procedures
Grain Price Forecasting Using a Hybrid Stochastic Method
Grain price forecasting is significant for all market participants in managing risks and planning operations. However, precise forecasting of price series is difficult because of the inherent stochastic behavior of grain price. In this paper, a novel hybrid stochastic method for grain price forecasting is introduced. The proposed method combines decomposed stochastic time series processes with artificial neural networks. The initial parameters of the hybrid stochastic model are optimized by a random search using a genetic algorithm. The proposed method is finally validated in China’s national grain market and compared with several recent price forecasting models. Results indicate that the proposed hybrid stochastic method provides a satisfactory forecasting performance in grain price series