The implications of landscape visual impact on future highly renewable power systems: a case study for Great Britain

Recent long term planning studies have demonstrated the important role of variable renewables (VRE) in decarbonising our energy system. However, cost-optimising models do not capture the visual impact of VREs on the landscape which can act to undermine their public acceptability. Here, we use crowd-sourced scenicness data to derive spatially explicit wind energy capacity potentials for three scenarios of public sensitivity to this visual impact. We then use these scenarios in a cost-optimising model of the GB power system to assess their impact on the cost and design of the electricity system in 2050. Our results show that total system costs can increase by up to 14.2% when public sensitivity to visual impact is high compared to low. It is thus essential for policy makers to consider these cost implications and to find mechanisms to ameliorate the visual impact of onshore wind in local communities

Impact of different levels of geographical disaggregation of wind and PV electricity generation in large energy system models: A case study for Austria

This paper assesses how different levels of geographical disaggregation of wind and photovoltaic energy resources could affect the outcomes of an energy system model by 2020 and 2050. Energy system models used for policy making typically have high technology detail but little spatial detail. However, the generation potential and integration costs of variable renewable energy sources and their time profile of production depend on geographic characteristics and infrastructure in place. For a case study for Austria we generate spatially highly resolved synthetic time series for potential production locations of wind power and PV. There are regional differences in the costs for wind turbines but not for PV. However, they are smaller than the cost reductions induced by technological learning from one modelled decade to the other. The wind availability shows significant regional differences where mainly the differences for summer days and winter nights are important. The solar availability for PV installations is more homogenous. We introduce these wind and PV data into the energy system model JRC-EU-TIMES with different levels of regional disaggregation. Results show that up to the point that the maximum potential is reached disaggregating wind regions significantly affects results causing lower electricity generation from wind and PV

The Role of Floating Offshore Wind in a Renewable Focused Electricity System for Great Britain in 2050

Floating offshore wind energy is an emerging technology that provides access to new wind generation sites allowing for a diversified wind supply in future low carbon electricity systems. We use a high spatial and temporal resolution power system optimisation model to explore the conditions that lead to the deployment of floating offshore wind and the effect this has on the rest of the electricity system for Great Britain in 2050. We perform a sensitivity analysis on three dimensions: total share of renewables, floating offshore costs and the impact of waves on operation. We find that all three impact the deployment of floating offshore wind energy. A clear competition between floating offshore wind and conventional offshore wind is demonstrated, with less impact on other renewable sources. It is shown that floating wind is used to provide access to greater spatial diversification. Further, access to more distant regions also affects the optimal placement of conventional offshore wind, as spatial diversification is spread between floating and bottom-mounted sites

The potential of marine energy technologies in the UK – Evaluation from a systems perspective

Accelerated technological change plays a crucial role in enabling the low-carbon energy transition. Quantitative energy modelling exploring alternative long-term decarbonisation pathways can support policy-makers in choosing the most important areas for technology promotion. This study analyses the potential contribution of marine energy in the UK from an energy systems perspective considering the trade-offs between local lead markets and global learning, the uncertainty in the learning potential, competition with alternative technologies and impacts on system balancing. The results indicate that only under very favourable conditions, i.e. with learning rates above 15% and high global deployment, marine energy w ill have a significant contribution to the UK decarbonisation pathway. Alternatively, marine energy could constitute a hedging strategy against multiple failure in other low-carbon options. The early strategic investments into marine energy lead, in most cases, to a slight rise in societal welfare costs compared to the respective cases without attempts to induce marine learning and brings benefits to the electricity system. Thus, on the whole, we conclude that marine energy has the potential to contribute to the UK energy system, but there is a substantial risk that strategic investments in a national lead market will not directly pay off in the long term

Designing low-carbon power systems for Great Britain in 2050 that are robust to the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of weather

The design of cost-effective power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies requires a modelling approach that simultaneously represents the whole energy system combined with the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of VRE. Here, we soft-link a long-term energy system model, which explores new energy system configurations from years to decades, with a high spatial and temporal resolution po wer system model that captures VRE variability from hours to years. Applying this methodology to Great Britain for 2050, we find that VRE-focused power system design is highly sensitive to the inter-annual variability of weather and that planning based on a single year can lead to operational inadequacy and failure to meet long-term decarbonization objectives. However, some insights do emerge that are relatively stable to weather-year. Reinforcement of the transmission system consistently leads to a decrease in system costs while electricity storage and flexible generation, needed to integrate VRE into the system, are generally deployed close to demand centres

Low carbon electricity systems for Great Britain in 2050: An energy-land-water perspective

The decarbonisation of the power sector is key to achieving the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global mean surface temperature rise to well below 2 °C. This will require rapid, national level transitions to low carbon electricity generation, such as variable renewables (VRE), nuclear and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, across the world. At the same time it is essential that future power systems are sustainable in the wider sense and thus respect social, environmental and technical limitations. Here we develop an energy-land-water nexus modelling framework and use it to perform a scenario analysis with the aim of understanding the planning and operational implications of these constraints on Great Britain's (GB) power system in 2050. We consider plausible scenarios for limits on installed nuclear capacity, siting restrictions that shape VRE deployment and water use for thermal power station cooling. We find that these factors combined can lead to up to a 25% increase in the system's levelised cost of electricity (LCOE). VRE siting restrictions can result in an up to 13% increase in system LCOE as the deployment of onshore wind is limited while nuclear capacity restrictions can drive an up to 17% greater LCOE. We also show that such real-world limitations can cause substantial changes in system design both in terms of the spatial pattern of where generators are located and the capacity mix of the system. Thus we demonstrate the large impact simultaneously considering a set of nexus factors can have on future GB power systems. Finally, given our plausible assumptions about key energy-land-water restrictions and emission limits effecting the GB power system in 2050, the cost optimal penetration of VREs is found to be at least 50%

The importance of weather and climate to energy systems: a workshop on next generation challenges in energy-climate modelling

Over 80 international participants, representing weather, climate, and energy systems research, joined two 4-hour remote sessions to highlight and prioritize ongoing and future challenges in energy-climate modelling. The workshop had two primary goals: to build a deeper engagement across the “energy” and “climate” research communities, and to identify and begin to address the scientific challenges associated with modelling climate risk in energy systems

Impact of technology uncertainty on future low-carbon pathways in the UK

Energy and climate policy-making requires strong quantitative scientific evidence to devise robust and consistent long-term decarbonisation strategies. Energy system modelling can provide crucial insights into the inherent uncertainty in such strategies, which needs to be understood when designing appropriate policy measures. This study contributes to the growing research area of uncertainty analysis in energy system models. We combine consistent and realistic narratives on several technology dimensions with a global sensitivity analysis in a national, bottom-up, optimizing energy system model. This produces structured insights into the impact of low-carbon technology and resource availability on the long-term development of the UK energy system under ambitious decarbonisation pathways. We explore a variety of result metrics to present policy-relevant results in a useful and concise manner. The results provide valuable information on the variability of fuel and technology use across the uncertainty space (e.g. a strong variation in natural gas demand). We demonstrate the complementarities and substitutability of technologies (e.g. the dependency of hydrogen technologies on the availability of CCS). We highlight critical low-carbon options and hedging strategies (e.g. the early decarbonisation of the electricity sector or the stronger use of renewable sources as a hedging against failure in other technologies) and demonstrate timing and path dependencies (e.g. the importance of early decarbonisation action in the presence of multiple technology uncertainty). The results also show how the availability of a given technology can have wider impacts elsewhere in the energy system, thus complicating the management of a long-term energy transition

Impact of technology uncertainty on future low-carbon pathways in the UK

Energy and climate policy-making requires strong quantitative scientific evidence to devise robust and consistent long-term decarbonisation strategies. Energy system modelling can provide crucial insights into the inherent uncertainty in such strategies, which needs to be understood when designing appropriate policy measures. This study contributes to the growing research area of uncertainty analysis in energy system models. We combine consistent and realistic narratives on several technology dimensions with a global sensitivity analysis in a national, bottom-up, optimizing energy system model. This produces structured insights into the impact of low-carbon technology and resource availability on the long-term development of the UK energy system under ambitious decarbonisation pathways. We explore a variety of result metrics to present policy-relevant results in a useful and concise manner. The results provide valuable information on the variability of fuel and technology use across the uncertainty space (e.g. a strong variation in natural gas demand). We demonstrate the complementarities and substitutability of technologies (e.g. the dependency of hydrogen technologies on the availability of CCS). We highlight critical low-carbon options and hedging strategies (e.g. the early decarbonisation of the electricity sector or the stronger use of renewable sources as a hedging against failure in other technologies) and demonstrate timing and path dependencies (e.g. the importance of early decarbonisation action in the presence of multiple technology uncertainty). The results also show how the availability of a given technology can have wider impacts elsewhere in the energy system, thus complicating the management of a long-term energy transition