Mixture Models and Convergence Clubs

In this paper we argue that modeling the cross-country distribution of per capita income as a mixture distribution provides a natural framework for the detection of convergence clubs. The framework yields tests for the number of component distributions that are likely to have more power than "bump hunting" tests and includes a natural method of assessing the cross-component immobility necessary to imply a correspondence between components and convergence clubs. Applying the mixture approach to cross-country per capita income data for the period 1960 to 2000 we find evidence of three component densities in each of the nine years that we examine. We find little cross-component mobility and so interpret the multiple mixture components as representing convergence clubs. We document a pronounced tendency for the strength of the bonds between countries and clubs to increase. We show that the well-known "hollowing out" of the middle of the distribution is largely attributable to the increased concentration of the rich countries around their component means. This increased concentration as well as that of the poor countries around their component mean produces a rise in polarization in the distribution over the sample period.

The complexity of neuroenhancement and the adoption of a social cognitive perspective

This contribution attempts to provide a broad perspective to the psychological study of neuroenhancement (NE). It departs from the assumption that, as the use of performance enhancing substances in sport, the use of substances with the aim of improving one’s cognitive, motivational and affective functioning in academic domains is a goal-directed behavior. As such, its scientific study may very well benefit from an analysis taking into account the psychological processes regulating people’s behavioral intentions and decisions. Within this broad framework, this contribution addresses several issues that currently seem to characterize the debate in the literature on neuroenhancement substances (NES) use. The first conceptual issue seeks to determine and define the “boundaries” of the phenomenon. The second issue concerns the empirical evidence on the prevalence of using certain substances for the purpose of NE. Finally, there is a debate around the ethical and moral implications of NE. Along these lines, the existing psychological research on NE has adopted mainly sociological and economic decision-making perspectives, greatly contributing to the psychological discourse about the phenomenon of NE. However, we argue that the existing psychological literature does not offer a common, explicit and integrated theoretical framework. Borrowing from the framework of doping research, we recommend the adoption of a social cognitive model for pursuing a systematic analysis of the psychological processes that dynamically regulate students’ use of NES over tim

Does regional cost-of-living reshuffle Italian income distribution?

This paper examines how spatial price differentials affect income distribution in Italy. The distribution of household income is “reshuffled” after controlling for the purchasing power of households residents in different regions, but only when housing price variations are included in the PPP index. Poor households living in Southern Italy alleviate their relative condition, but concentration of poverty still holds in the Southern part of the country.Income distribution, inequality, regional purchasing power parity, Italy.

consequences, causes and policy options

Seeking to contribute to the governance stream of this year’s Berlin Conference, the paper addresses an emerging phenomenon of global environmental governance: the increasing overlap and interplay among institutions that touch upon related subject matters. Presenting one of the first outcomes of the Earth System Governance project, the paper focuses on one specific case of institutional interplay, namely the overlap between the United Nations climate regime and the World Trade Organization (WTO). While parties of the UN climate regime discuss trade-related measures for a post-2012 agreement, WTO parties debate climate-related trade measures. This duplication of debates entails a lack of legal clarity, which may have detrimental implications for the further negotiation and implementation of both regimes. Drawing on neoliberal institutionalism and cognitivism, we identify two reasons for these interplay effects: the constellation of preferences and the lack of consensual knowledge on overlapping issues. Based on a workshop organized jointly with the UN Environment Programme, we developed suggestions to tackle these reasons. Policies could accommodate the lack of knowledge by means of flexible approaches, e.g. default values for border cost adjustments and ‘living lists’ of sustainability criteria for lifting trade barriers. With regard to the constellation of country preferences, a careful linkage of debates across arenas can produce additional trade-offs and break some of the deadlocks in which these discussions have ended up. On the other hand, the paper attends to the caveats and limits of such linkages

Measures of poverty and inequality in the countries and regions of EU

The European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) is the main source of information about living standards and poverty in the member states of the European Union. It provides reliable statistics at national level but sample sizes do not allow reliable estimates at sub-national level, despite a rising demand from policy makers and local authorities. We provide a comprehensive map of median income, inequality (Gini coefficient and Lorenz curve) and poverty (poverty rates), at country and regional levels, based on the equivalized household income in all the countries in which EU-SILC is conducted. We focus on personal income distribution within regions as opposed to per capita income distribution across regions to give a deeper insight into regional disparities. Small-area estimation is applied to improve estimates in regions with small sample size. Uncertainty of such complex non-linear statistics is assessed by bootstrap methods. Household-level sampling weights are taken into account in both the estimates and their relative bootstrapped standard errors.European regional economics measurement; EU-SILC; Gini coefficient; Poverty rates; Small-area estimation.

Income Inequality, Cohesiveness and Commonality in the Euro Area: A Semi-Parametric Boundary-Free Analysis

The cohesiveness of constituent nations in a confederation such as the Eurozone depends on their equally shared experiences. In terms of household incomes, commonality of distribution across those constituent nations with that of the Eurozone as an entity in itself is of the essence. Generally, income classification has proceeded by employing “hard”, somewhat arbitrary and contentious boundaries. Here, in an analysis of Eurozone household income distributions over the period 2006–2015, mixture distribution techniques are used to determine the number and size of groups or classes endogenously without resort to such hard boundaries. In so doing, some new indices of polarization, segmentation and commonality of distribution are developed in the context of a decomposition of the Gini coefficient and the roles of, and relationships between, these groups in societal income inequality, poverty, polarization and societal segmentation are examined. What emerges for the Eurozone as an entity is a four-class, increasingly unequal polarizing structure with income growth in all four classes. With regard to individual constituent nation class membership, some advanced, some fell back, with most exhibiting significant polarizing behaviour. However, in the face of increasing overall Eurozone inequality, constituent nations were becoming increasingly similar in distribution, which can be construed as characteristic of a more cohesive society

Partially Identified Poverty Status: A New Approach to Measuring Poverty and the Progress of the Poor.

Poverty measurement and the analysis of the progress (or otherwise) of the poor is beset with difficulties and controversies surrounding the definition of a poverty line or frontier. Here, using ideas from the partial identification literature and mixture models, a new approach to poverty measurement is proposed which avoids specifying a frontier, the price is that an agent's poverty status is only partially identified. Invoking variants of Gibrat's law to give structure to the distribution of outcomes for homogeneous subgroups of a population within the context of a finite mixture model of societal outcomes facilitates calculation of the probability of an agent's poverty status. From this it is straightforward to calculate all the usual poverty measures as well as other characteristics of the poor and non poor subgroups in a society. These ideas are exemplified in a study of 47 countries in Africa over the recent quarter century which reveals among other things a growing poverty rate and a growing disparity between poor and non poor groups not identified by conventional methods.Poverty Frontiers, Mixture Models, Gibrat\'s law, Partial Identification

The antiquity of hydrocephalus: the first full palaeo-neuropathological description

The Pathology Museum of the University of Florence houses a rich collection of anatomical specimens and over a hundred waxworks portraying pathological conditions occurring in the nineteenth century, when the museum was established. Clinical and autopsy findings of these cases can still be retrieved from the original museum catalogue, offering a rare opportunity for retrospective palaeo-pathological diagnostics. We present a historical case of severe hydrocephalus backed by modern-day anthropological, radiological and molecular analyses conducted on the skeleton of an 18-month-old male infant deceased in 1831. Luigi Calamai (1796-1851), a wax craftsman of La Specola workshop in Florence, was commissioned to create a life-sized wax model of the child's head, neck and upper thorax. This artwork allows us to appreciate the cranial and facial alterations determined by 30 lb of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) accumulated within the cerebral ventricular system. Based on the autopsy report, gross malformations of the neural tube, tumours and haemorrhage could be excluded. A molecular approach proved helpful in confirming sex. We present this case as the so-far most compelling case of hydrocephalus in palaeo-pathological research