Childhood trauma fatality and resource allocation in injury control programs in a developing country

BACKGROUND: Only a few studies have addressed the trimodal distribution of childhood trauma fatalities in lesser developed countries. We conducted this study to evaluate pre-hospital, Emergency Department (ED) and in-hospital distribution of childhood injury-related death for each mechanism of injury in Tehran, Iran. This information will be used for the efficient allocation of the limited injury control resources in the city. METHODS: We used Tehran's Legal Medicine Organization (LMO) database. This is the largest and the most complete database that receives information about trauma fatalities from more than 100 small and large hospitals in Tehran. We reviewed all the medical records and legal documents of the deceased registered in LMO from September 1999 to September 2000. Demographic and injury related characteristics of the children 15 years old or younger were extracted from the records. RESULTS: Ten percent of the 4,233 trauma deaths registered in LMO occurred among children 15 years old or younger. Motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) (50%), burns (18%), falls (6%) and poisonings (6%) were the most common mechanisms of unintentional fatal injuries. Prehospital, emergency department and hospital deaths comprised 42%, 20% and 37% of the trauma fatalities, respectively. While, more than 80% of fatal injuries due to poisoning and drowning occurred in prehospital setting, 92% of burn-related fatalities happened after hospital admission. CONCLUSION: Injury prevention is the single most important solution for controlling trauma fatalities due to poisoning and drowning. Improvements in the quality of care in hospitals and intensive care units might substantially alleviate the magnitude of the problem due to burns. Improvements in prehospital and ED care might significantly decrease MVC and falls-related fatalities

Barriers and facilitators to provide effective pre-hospital trauma care for road traffic injury victims in Iran: a grounded theory approach

BACKGROUND: Road traffic injuries are a major global public health problem. Improvements in pre-hospital trauma care can help minimize mortality and morbidity from road traffic injuries (RTIs) worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with a high rate of RTIs such as Iran. The current study aimed to explore pre-hospital trauma care process for RTI victims in Iran and to identify potential areas for improvements based on the experience and perception of pre-hospital trauma care professionals. METHODS: A qualitative study design using a grounded theory approach was selected. The data, collected via in-depth interviews with 15 pre-hospital trauma care professionals, were analyzed using the constant comparative method. RESULTS: Seven categories emerged to describe the factors that hinder or facilitate an effective pre-hospital trauma care process: (1) administration and organization, (2) staff qualifications and competences, (3) availability and distribution of resources, (4) communication and transportation, (5) involved organizations, (6) laypeople and (7) infrastructure. The core category that emerged from the other categories was defined as "interaction and common understanding". Moreover, a conceptual model was developed based on the categories. CONCLUSIONS: Improving the interaction within the current pre-hospital trauma care system and building a common understanding of the role of the Emergency Medical Services (EMS) emerged as key issues in the development of an effective pre-hospital trauma care process

Comparison of artificial neural network and logistic regression models for prediction of mortality in head trauma based on initial clinical data

BACKGROUND: In recent years, outcome prediction models using artificial neural network and multivariable logistic regression analysis have been developed in many areas of health care research. Both these methods have advantages and disadvantages. In this study we have compared the performance of artificial neural network and multivariable logistic regression models, in prediction of outcomes in head trauma and studied the reproducibility of the findings. METHODS: 1000 Logistic regression and ANN models based on initial clinical data related to the GCS, tracheal intubation status, age, systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, pulse rate, injury severity score and the outcome of 1271 mainly head injured patients were compared in this study. For each of one thousand pairs of ANN and logistic models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) statistics and accuracy rate were calculated and compared using paired T-tests. RESULTS: ANN significantly outperformed logistic models in both fields of discrimination and calibration but under performed in accuracy. In 77.8% of cases the area under the ROC curves and in 56.4% of cases the HL statistics for the neural network model were superior to that for the logistic model. In 68% of cases the accuracy of the logistic model was superior to the neural network model. CONCLUSIONS: ANN significantly outperformed the logistic models in both fields of discrimination and calibration but lagged behind in accuracy. This study clearly showed that any single comparison between these two models might not reliably represent the true end results. External validation of the designed models, using larger databases with different rates of outcomes is necessary to get an accurate measure of performance outside the development population

Investigating the Responses of Human Epithelial Cells to Predatory Bacteria

One beguiling alternative to antibiotics for treating multi-drug resistant infections are Bdellovibrio-and-like-organisms (BALOs), predatory bacteria known to attack human pathogens. Consequently, in this study, the responses from four cell lines (three human and one mouse) were characterized during an exposure to different predatory bacteria, Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus HD100, Bacteriovorus BY1 and Bacteriovorax stolpii EB1. TNF-alpha levels were induced in Raw 264.7 mouse macrophage cultures with each predator, but paled in comparison to those obtained with E. coli. This was true even though the latter strain was added at an 11.1-fold lower concentration (p < 0.01). Likewise, E. coli led to a significant (54%) loss in the Raw 264.7 murine macrophage viability while the predatory strains had no impact. Tests with various epithelial cells, including NuLi-1 airway, Caco2, HT29 and T84 colorectal cells, gave similar results, with E. coli inducing IL-8 production. The viabilities of the NuLi-1 and Caco-2 cells were slightly reduced (8%) when exposed to the predators, while T84 viability remained steady. In no cases did the predatory bacteria induce actin rearrangement. These results clearly demonstrate the gentle natures of predatory bacteria and their impacts on human cells.ope

Selective AKR1C3 inhibitors do not recapitulate the anti-leukaemic activities of the pan-AKR1C inhibitor medroxyprogesterone acetate

Background: We and others have identified the aldo-keto reductase AKR1C3 as a potential drug target in prostate cancer, breast cancer and leukaemia. As a consequence, significant effort is being invested in the development of AKR1C3-selective inhibitors. Methods: We report the screening of an in-house drug library to identify known drugs that selectively inhibit AKR1C3 over the closely related isoforms AKR1C1, 1C2 and 1C4. This screen initially identified tetracycline as a potential AKR1C3-selective inhibitor. However, mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance studies identified that the active agent was a novel breakdown product (4-methyl(de-dimethylamine)-tetracycline (4-MDDT)). Results: We demonstrate that, although 4-MDDT enters AML cells and inhibits their AKR1C3 activity, it does not recapitulate the anti-leukaemic actions of the pan-AKR1C inhibitor medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA). Screens of the NCI diversity set and an independently curated small-molecule library identified several additional AKR1C3-selective inhibitors, none of which had the expected anti-leukaemic activity. However, a pan AKR1C, also identified in the NCI diversity set faithfully recapitulated the actions of MPA. Conclusions: In summary, we have identified a novel tetracycline-derived product that provides an excellent lead structure with proven drug-like qualities for the development of AKR1C3 inhibitors. However, our findings suggest that, at least in leukaemia, selective inhibition of AKR1C3 is insufficient to elicit an anticancer effect and that multiple AKR1C inhibition may be required

Оценка надежности высоконадежных систем с учетом ЗИП

Предложены приближенные верхние и нижние оценки коэффициента готовности высоконадежной восстанавливаемой системы со структурной избыточностью. Полученные расчетные соотношения могут использоваться для оценки надежности высоконадежных систем с учетом различных стратегий пополнения ЗИП

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. INTERPRETATION: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust