The Impact of Conventional Force Reductions on Strategic Deterrence: A Game-Theoretic Analysis

Many game-theoretic analyses of deterrence confirm the commonsense view that what determines whether a defender can effectively deter a challenger from an unwanted action is (1) the challenger’s perception of the level of punishment that the defender will be able to impose on the challenger should it take the action, and (2) the challenger’s level of belief about the likelihood of the defender actually carrying out this punishment. Reduction of the defender’s forces may affect both the defender’s ability to retaliate and its perceived willingness to do so. Game-theoretic methods are used to assess how the limits on both of these parameters are related, subject to the condition that deterrence remains effective. The results indicate that the defending side can often make do with smaller forces, provided its (apparent) resolve is high. But force structure is important—the models suggest that implementation of an “all-or-nothing” deployment (as called for by a doctrine of massive retaliation, for example) may reduce not only costs, but also deterrence effectiveness

Nature-based Solutions for climate adaptation and mitigation in Deltas and coastal areas

Coastal areas, especially deltas, are some of the most urbanized territories in the world. Historically, the natural richness and strategic location of these areas resulted attractive for human settlements worldwide. However, these areas are also highly vulnerable due to rapid and unplanned urbanization, land use changes, and extreme climate events. There is an international consensus on the need for new strategies for sustainable development to help cities to mitigate the effects of climate change, as well as adapt to new changing conditions in a context of increasing uncertainty. This paper will explore the specific aspects of urban deltas and coastal areas, from a complexity-based approach, and analyse Nature-based Solutions as alternatives towards sustainable development in these areas

Towards a Method of Participatory Planning in an Emerging Metropolitan Delta in the Context of Climate Change:

The Parana River is the third largest river in the American continent, after the Mississippi and the Amazon. Instead of flowing directly to the sea, it flows to the Rio de la Plata (located between Argentina and Uruguay) through a complex delta system. This delta is a large and heterogeneous territory that spreads over three provinces of Argentina and that is characterized by different dichotomies along its extension. On the one hand, the islands of the delta are young alluvial lands in constant transformation due to the processes of sedimentation, and are subjected to pulses of floods influenced by the Paraná River streamflow, droughts, precipitations and strong southeastern winds coming from the Atlantic Ocean. Although these alluvial territories seem to be pristine, they have been moderately altered as a result of the development of economic activities. On the other hand, along the edges of the delta, we find the older territories of the mainland, created in the Pleistocene and less dynamic. Here is a network of cities of dissimilar sizes, that establishes the wealthiest corridor of the country. Conurbations such as Rosario (located in the province of San ta Fe) and the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (located in the homonym province), exert different pressures over the territory, generating an increasing impact on the delta system. In other words, this delta shows a contrast between the wild and dynamic condition of the islands and the more stable but strongly urbanized edges. Nevertheless, this dichotomy is not the only one that can be found in the delta. On the contrary, there are other oppositions regarding economic, policy and social realms, expressed through a polarized, unsustainable and unplanned land use, which turns the area into a vulnerable place, given the uncertain context of climate change. Although this delta can be considered an extreme and particular case, many of the conflicts that can be found in this area replicate in other deltas around the world. Urbanizing deltas are subjected to pressures related to urban growth and climate change, within a context of uncertainty and unpredictability. Those pressures interact at multiple scales and temporalities, affecting the components of the systems, as well as the relations between them and with the environment. This complexity reveals the need for the society (including governments, institutions, civil organizations, academia, etc.) to enhance the adaptability of the system of the delta, in order to cope with changes without losing their substantial characteristics. This research is focused on the study of the complexity of self-organizing processes that emerge in metropolitan areas located in (or near) delta territories, in order to link climate adaptation with urban development from an actor-oriented perspective. This aim is motivated by understanding urbanizing deltas as complex adaptive systems formed by physical components, social actors and their mutual relations, which are in constant adjustment within the system and with the environment, in an atmosphere of uncertainty. In such a complex context, small changes can trigger qualitative impacts, that force the system to adapt in order to return to a new dynamic equilibrium. For example, in urbanizing deltas, extreme climatic events can cause tragic consequences when the context is not capable of adapting to that circumstances, generating effects at all scales. This vulnerability makes necessary to prepare to possible disruptive events though innovative planning methods towards increasing the system´s adaptive capacity. For that purpose, and adopting a bottom-up criterion, this research bases on the understanding of the self-organizing processes that emerge in urbanizing deltas to design and implement a methodology that can be applied at the local level, to generate an impact at other scales. The method designed in this thesis also includes the development of scenarios in order to think about possible future events and reflect on the necessary policy and actions to make the system respond to changes in a more adaptive way. The scenarios, as well as all the indicators analysed along the process, are developed through participatory workshops, after an analysis of the actor-network of the area, and also of the local, provincial and national regulations. The method designed and implemented throughout this research is applied at the local level of the case study, and is flexible enough to be adapted for replicating it in other parts of the Argentinean Delta, in order to contribute to the increase of the systems´ adaptive capacity through the generation of initiatives at the local level that can generate an aggregate impact at higher levels

Delta Challenges under Nature-Based Solutions Perspectives

Deltaic areas and coasts tend to be extremely vulnerable as aresult of the fusion of high-density urban agglomerations,overexploitation, and degradation of natural resources and theincrease of climate events. The complexity of the combination ofnatural coastal and deltaic processes and human-madeactivities requires an integral perspective regarding planning,design, and governance (Meyer, 2009; Zagare, 2018)

BUENOS AIRES: EN BUSCA DE UN MODELO DE GESTIÓN INTEGRAL DEL TRANSPORTE

En la ciudad de Buenos Aires, el modelo de movilidad urbana y sus mutaciones a lo largo dela historia han dejado su impronta en la expansión territorial, y sobre todo, en el proceso de metropolización. En este artículo se analizan esas mutaciones desde varias ópticas. En un primer apartado se estudian algunas de las características relevantes de la ciudad y el Área Metropolitana de Buenos Aires (AMBA) para comprender la relación históricatransporte-territorio. En segundo lugar se hará hincapié en el estudio de la oferta actual de servicios de transporte e infraestructura, según el cambio del modelo de movilidad urbana producido en las últimas décadas. Finalmente, en un tercer apartado se reflexionará acerca de la gestión del transporte en la metrópolis, los actores que intervienen en el proceso yla visión de la problemática en el futuro como un tema clave para resolver. Cabe aclarar que este es un tema central debido a que el AMBA ha sido dirigido históricamente por una pluralidad de gobiernos municipales, conformándose como un escenario fragmentadoque impidió una visión integral del territorio en sus continuidades e interacciones. En loque refiere al transporte, es crucial la implementación de políticas integrales ya que la superposición de competencias es contra producente para una gestión clara que apunte aun servicio eficiente, sustentable y accesible a todos los grupos sociales.ABSTRACTThroughout history, the mutations of the model of urban mobility in Buenos Aires have impacted on the territorial development of the city and its metropolitan region. The aimof this article is to analyze the situation from different perspectives. In the first part, It will be developed a study of the main characteristics of the city and it’s Metropolitan Area(AMBA), in order to understand the historic relationship between transportation and territory. In the second part, it will be presented the current transportation and infrastructure offer, according to the changes of mobility patterns during the past two decades. Finally, in a third part, it will be developed an analysis of the management and transportationpolicies, the actors involved in the process of decision-making and the vision of the futureproblems in advance. A coordinated transportation management is a central goal to achieve due to the fragmented political scenery which does not allow thinking the territory as a net of continuities andinteractions. It is vital an integral implementation of policies in order to make the public transportation system efficient, sustainable and accessible to all social groups

PROCESOS NATURALES Y URBANOS EN EL DELTA INFERIOR DEL PARANÁ: ACTORES, CONFLICTOS Y DESAFÍOS DE UN ÁREA EN CONSTANTE TRANSFORMACIÓN

El delta del Paraná, especialmente en su zona inferior, es un territorio en constante transformación, fruto de las dinámicas naturales y de los procesos de expansión del Área Metropolitana de Buenos Aires. Como en todo delta urbano, la gestión del territorio necesita responder a las especificidades del área y superar la limitación de lo geográfico, jurisdiccional o ambiental para integrar el estudio de los procesos urbanos y los actores intervinientes. La finalidad de este artículo es explorar los conflictos que tienen lugar en el área y reflexionar sobre el desarrollo de estrategias integradas a escala local. A esos fines, se expondrán las principales características de la zona y los procesos naturales y urbanos de transformación, para luego hacer hincapié en los conflictos que se generan producto de estas transformaciones y los actores que intervienen.ABSTRACTThe Lower Parana Delta is a territory in constant transformation as a result of the dynamics of the natural processes and the expansion of Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area. As in any urban delta, land and water management needs to respond to the specific conditions and overcome the limitation of the geographical definitions, jurisdictional borders and environmental dimensions. To achieve that, it remains necessary to integrate the study of urban processes and analyze the range of actors involved. The purpose of this article is to explore the conflicts that take place in the area and reflect on the development of integrated strategies at the local level. For that purpose, the main features of the area will be addressed together with the natural and urban transformation processes, to finally present the conflicts product of these transformations and the actors involved