From principles to action: Applying the National Research Council's principles for effective decision support to the Federal Emergency Management Agency's watch office

AbstractThe National Research Council (NRC) proposed six principles for effective decision support in its 2009 report Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate. We structured a collaborative project between the Federal Emergency Management Agency Region R9 (FEMA R9), the Western Region Headquarters of the National Weather Service (WR-NWS), and the Climate Assessment of the Southwest (CLIMAS) at the University of Arizona around the application of the NRC principles. The goal of the project was to provide FEMA R9's Watch Office with climate information scaled to their temporal and spatial interests to aid them in assessing the potential risk of flood disasters. We found that we needed specific strategies and activities in order to apply the principles effectively. By using a set of established collaborative research approaches we were better able to assess FEMA R9's information needs and WR-NWS's capacity to meet those needs. Despite our diligent planning of engagement strategies, we still encountered some barriers to transitioning our decision support tool from research to operations. This paper describes our methods for planning and executing a three-party collaborative effort to provide climate services, the decision support tool developed through this process, and the lessons we will take from this deliberate collaborative process to our future work and implications of the NRC principles for the broader field of climate services

A Federal and State Transport Plan for Movement of Eggs and Egg Products from Commercial Egg Production Premises in a High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Control Area

The FAST Eggs Plan is a voluntary plan for commercial egg producers intended to facilitate business continuity following an outbreak of HPAI. Participation in the FAST Eggs Plan will reduce the time required for regulatory officials to determine that it is safe for eggs and egg products from noninfected chickens located within a control area to move into market channels located outside the control area. The FAST Eggs Plan has 5 components. First, a Biosecurity Checklist for Egg Production Premises and Auditors includes biosecurity measures that will help prevent introduction of avian influenza virus onto egg-production premises. Second, registration with the National Animal Identification System is required for participating egg-production premises, and the premises location is verified by GPS coordinates. Third, epidemiological data are used to determine whether an egg farm has been exposed directly or indirectly to birds and other animals, products, materials, people, or aerosols from premises on which HPAI virus has been confirmed. Fourth, the absence of HPAI virus on FAST Eggs Plan premises is verified by negative RRT-PCR assay results from a minimum of 5 dead chickens selected from those that die each day from each house on the farm. Fifth, the risk of exposure to HPAI virus is estimated by use of an equation based on risks not mitigated by quarantine and distance from infected premises

Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective (e.g., statistical) verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, it is not usually sufficient for quantifying the value of the overall contribution of the model to the weather-forecasting process. This is especially true for mesoscale models with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution that may be capable of predicting meteorologically consistent, though not necessarily accurate, fine-scale weather phenomena. Therefore, subjective (phenomenological) evaluation, focusing on selected case studies and specific weather features, such as sea breezes and precipitation, has been performed to help quantify the added value that cannot be inferred solely from objective evaluation

The Demographics and Atmospheres of Giant Planets with the ELTs

Gas giants are the most readily detectable exoplanets but fundamental questions about their system architectures, formation, migration, and atmospheres have been unanswerable with the current generation of ground- and space-based facilities. The dominant techniques to detect and characterize giant planets $-$ radial velocities, transits, direct imaging, microlensing, and astrometry $-$ are each isolated to a limited range of planet masses, separations, ages, and temperatures. These windows into the arrangement and physical properties of giant planets have spawned new questions about the timescale and location of their assembly; the distributions of planet mass and orbital separation at young and old ages; the composition and structure of their atmospheres; and their orbital and rotational angular momentum architectures. The ELTs will address these questions by building bridges between these islands of mass, orbital distance, and age. The angular resolution, collecting area, all-sky coverage, and novel instrumentation suite of these facilities are needed to provide a complete map of the orbits and atmospheric evolution of gas giant planets (0.3$-$10 $M_\mathrm{Jup}$) across space (0.1$-$100 AU) and time (1 Myr to 10 Gyr). This white paper highlights the scientific potential of the GMT and TMT to address these outstanding questions, with a particular focus on the role of direct imaging and spectroscopy of large samples of giant planets that will soon be made available with $Gaia$.Comment: White paper for the Astro2020 decadal surve

Cognitive Information Processing

Contains research objectives and summary of research on five research projects.National Science Foundation (Grant SED74-12653-A01)Joint Services Electronics Program (Contract DAAB07-76-C-1400)National Science Foundation (Grant ENG74-24344)Associated Press (Grant)National Institutes of Health (Grant 1 ROI GM22547-01)National Institutes of Health (Grant 2 PO1 GM19428-04

Power and efficiency continuous modes in saturated GaN HEMT devices

This paper discusses, for the first time, the continuity of optimum load for power and efficiency in saturated GaN devices. Continuous modes are defined originally on the zerograzing voltage assumption. In this paper we show that a continuous behaviour can also be observed in saturated devices without imposing any limitation on clipping. Simulations using a simplified knee-model for the device and source-load pull experimental characterization are critically analysed and compared to describe the discovered continuum