Mathematical modelling of shoreline evolution under climate change

This study focuses on the impact of potential changes in the wind-wave climate on shoreline change. The `one-line' model for medium to long-term prediction of coastline evolution is employed. New analytical and numerical solutions of this important model are described. Specifically: 1) original semi-analytical solutions are derived that relax the unrealistic assumption of existing analytical work that a constant wave condition drives shoreline change and, 2) a more general form of the one-line model is solved with a novel application of the `Method of Lines'. Model input consists of 30-year nearshore wave climate scenarios, corresponding to the `present' (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100). Winds from a high resolution, (12km x 12km), regional climate model, obtained offshore of the south-central coast of England at a dense temporal resolution of 3 hours, are used to develop the aforementioned wave climate scenarios, through hindcast and inshore wave transformation. A hypothetical shoreline segment is adopted as a `benchmark' case for comparisons. Monthly and seasonal statistics of output shoreline positions are generated and assessedfo r relative changeso f `significance' between `present' and future. Different degrees of evidence that such changes do exist are found. This study is the first application of such high resolution climate model output to investigate climate change impact on shoreline response. Major findings include: 1) shoreline changes of `significance' are strongly linked to `significant' changes in future wave direction, 2) future changes appear smaller for entire seasons than for individual months, 3) shoreline position variability is often smaller in the future, 4) different climate model experiments produce diverging results; however, general trends are largely similar. The present study, at a fundamental level, offers analytical solutions of the 'oneline' model that are closer to reality and a numerical solution that is of increased effciency.. At a practical level, it contributes to better understanding of the patterns of shoreline response to changing offshore wave climate through: 1) the use of fast and straightforward methods that can accommodate numerous climate scenarios without need for data reduction, and 2) the development of a methodology for using climate model output for coastal climate change impact assessment studies

The Copernicus Marine Service ocean forecasting system for the Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (MED-MFC) is part of the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and provides regular and systematic information on the time-evolving Mediterranean Sea physical (including waves) and biogeochemical state. The systems consist of 3 components: 1) Med-Physics, a numerical ocean prediction systems, based on NEMO model, that operationally produces analyses, reanalysis and short term forecasts of the main physical parameters; 2) Med-Biogeochemistry, a biogeochemical analysis, reanalysis and forecasting system based on the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM) which provides information on chlorophyll, phosphate, nitrate, primary productivity, oxygen, phytoplankton biomass, pH and pCO2; 3) Med-Waves based on WAM model and providing analysis, forecast and reanalysis products for waves. The systems have been recently upgraded at a resolution of 1/24 degree in the horizontal and 141 vertical levels. The Med-Physics analysis and forecasting system is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO 2-way coupled with the third-generation wave model WaveWatchIII and forced by ECMWF atmospheric fields. The model solutions are corrected by the 3DVAR data assimilation system (3D variational scheme adapted to the oceanic assimilation problem) with a daily assimilation cycle of sea level anomaly and vertical profiles of temperature and salinity. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and it is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the air-sea interface. The biogeochemical analysis and forecasts are produced by means of the MedBFM v2.1 modeling system (i.e. the physical-biogeochemical OGSTM-BFM model coupled with the 3DVARBIO assimilation scheme) forced by the outputs of the Med-Physics product. Seven days of analysis/hindcast and ten days of forecast are bi-weekly produced on Wednesday and on Saturday, with the assimilation of surface chlorophyll concentration from satellite observations. In-situ data are mainly used to estimate model uncertainty at different spatial scales. The Med-Waves modelling system is based on the WAM Cycle 4.5.4 wave model code. It consists of a wave model grid covering the Mediterranean Sea at a 1/24° horizontal resolution, nested to a North Atlantic grid at a 1/6° resolution. The system is forced by ECMWF winds at 1/8°. Refraction due to surface currents is accounted by the system which assimilates altimeter along-track significant wave height observations. On a daily basis, it provides 1-day analysis and 5-day forecast hourly wave parameters. Currently, wave buoy observations of significant wave height and mean wave period along with satellite observations are used to calibrate and validate the Med-waves modelling system.PublishedHalifax, Nova Scotia, Canada4A. Oceanografia e clim

Mediterranean monitoring and forecasting operational system for Copernicus Marine Service

The MEDiterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (Med-MFC) is part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS, http://marine.copernicus.eu/), provided on an operational mode by Mercator Ocean in agreement with the European Commission. Specifically, Med MFC system provides regular and systematic information about the physical state of the ocean and marine ecosystems for the Mediterranean Sea. The Med-MFC service started in May 2015 from the pre-operational system developed during the MyOcean projects, consolidating the understanding of regional Mediterranean Sea dynamics, from currents to biogeochemistry to waves, interfacing with local data collection networks and guaranteeing an efficient link with other Centers in Copernicus network. The Med-MFC products include analyses, 10 days forecasts and reanalysis, describing currents, temperature, salinity, sea level and pelagic biogeochemistry. Waves products will be available in MED-MFC version in 2017. The consortium, composed of INGV (Italy), HCMR (Greece) and OGS (Italy) and coordinated by the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC, Italy), performs advanced R&D activities and manages the service delivery. The Med-MFC infrastructure consists of 3 Production Units (PU), for Physics, Biogechemistry and Waves, a unique Dissemination Unit (DU) and Archiving Unit (AU) and Backup Units (BU) for all principal components, guaranteeing a resilient configuration of the service and providing and efficient and robust solution for the maintenance of the service and delivery. The Med-MFC includes also an evolution plan, both in terms of research and operational activities, oriented to increase the spatial resolution of products, to start wave products dissemination, to increase temporal extent of the reanalysis products and improving ocean physical modeling for delivering new products. The scientific activities carried out in 2015 concerned some improvements in the physical, biogeochemical and wave components of the system. Regarding the currents, new grid-point EOFs have been implemented in the Med-MFC assimilation system; the climatological CMAP precipitation was replaced by the ECMWF daily precipitation; reanalysis time-series have been increased by one year. Regarding the biogeochemistry, the main scientific achievement is related to the implementation of the carbon system in the Med-MFC biogeochemistry model system already available. The new model is able to reproduce the principal spatial patterns of the carbonate system variables in the Mediterranean Sea. Further, a key result consists of the calibration of the new variables (DIC and alkalinity), which serves to the estimation of the accuracy of the new products to be released in the next version of the system (i.e. pH and pCO2 at surface). Regarding the waves, the system has been validated against in-situ and satellite observations. For example, a very good agreement between model output and in-situ observations has been obtained at offshore and/or well-exposed wave buoys in the Mediterranean Sea.PublishedVienna3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Societ

Copernicus Ocean State Report, issue 6

The 6th issue of the Copernicus OSR incorporates a large range of topics for the blue, white and green ocean for all European regional seas, and the global ocean over 1993–2020 with a special focus on 2020

Enhancing the management response to oil spills in the Tuscany Archipelago through operational modelling

none5siA new approach towards the management of oil pollution accidents in marine sensitive areas is presented in this work. A set of nested models in a downscaling philosophy was implemented, externally forced by existing regional operational products. The 3D hydrodynamics, turbulence and the oil transport/weathering models are all linked in the same system, sharing the same code, exchanging information in real time and improving its ability to correctly reproduce the spill. A wind-generated wave model is also implemented using the same downscaling philosophy. Observations from several sources validated the numerical components of the system. The results obtained highlight the good performance of the system and its ability to be applied for oil spill forecasts in the region. The success of the methodology described in this paper was underline during the Costa Concordia accident, where a high resolution domain was rapidly created and deployed inside the system covering the accident site. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.noneJaneiro, João*; Zacharioudaki, Anna; Sarhadi, Ehsan; Sepp Neves, Antonio Augusto; Martins, FlávioJaneiro, João*; Zacharioudaki, Anna; Sarhadi, Ehsan; Sepp Neves, Antonio Augusto; Martins, Flávi

Adalimumab or Cyclosporine as Monotherapy and in Combination in Severe Psoriatic Arthritis: Results from a Prospective 12-month Nonrandomized Unblinded Clinical Trial

Objective. To assess the efficacy and safety of adalimumab or cyclosporine (CYC) as monotherapy or combination therapy for patients with active psoriatic arthritis (PsA), despite methotrexate (MTX) therapy. Methods. A prospective 12-month, nonrandomized, unblinded clinical trial of 57, 58, and 55 patients who received CYC (2.5-3.75 mg/kg/day), adalimumab (40 mg every other week), or combination, respectively. Lowering of concomitant nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAID) and corticosteroids and reductions of adalimumab and/or CYC doses in responding patients were not restricted. Results. Mean numbers of tender/swollen joints at baseline were 9.7/6.7 in CYC-treated, 13.0/7.8 in adalimumab-treated, and 14.5/9.4 in combination-treated patients, indicating lesser disease severity of patients assigned to the first group. The Psoriatic Arthritis Response Criteria at 12 months were met by 65% of CYC-treated (p = 0.0003 in favor of combination treatment), 85% of adalimumab-treated (p = 0.15 vs combination treatment), and 95% of combination-treated patients, while the American College of Rheumatology-50 response rates were 36%, 69%, and 87%, respectively (p <0.0001 and p = 0.03 in favor of combination treatment). A significantly greater mean improvement in Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index was achieved by combination treatment (-1.11) vs CYC (-0.41) or adalimumab alone (-0.85). Combination therapy significantly improved Psoriasis Area and Severity Index-SO response rates beyond adalimumab, but not beyond the effect of CYC monotherapy. Doses of NSAID and corticosteroids were reduced in combination-treated patients; CYC doses and frequency of adalimumab injections were also reduced in 51% and 10% of them, respectively. No new safety signals were observed. Conclusion. The combination of adalimumab and CYC is safe and seemed to produce major improvement in both clinical and serological variables in patients with severely active PsA and inadequate response to MTX. (First Release Sept 1 2011; J Rheumatol 2011;38:2466-.74; doi:10.3899/jrheum.110242

LE SYSTEME DE PREVISION OCEANIQUE DU SERVICE COPERNICUS MARINE POUR LA MER MEDITERRANEE

International audienceThe Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (Med-MFC) is part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and operationally produces analysis, forecast and reanalysis products for the Mediterranean Sea hydrodynamics, waves and biogeochemistry. The modelling systems are based on state-of-the-art community models, assimilate observational in situ and satellite observations and are forced by high resolution atmospheric fields. Improvements and functioning of the Med-MFC systems are based on the full consistency among the three components which are jointly upgraded and include a continuous amelioration of the accuracy of the products. The focus of this work is to present the Med-MFC modelling systems and the available products, their skill assessment, main recent achievements and future upgrades

Mediterranean monitoring and forecasting operational system for Copernicus Marine Service

The MEDiterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (Med-MFC) is part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS, http://marine.copernicus.eu/), provided on an operational mode by Mercator Ocean in agreement with the European Commission. Specifically, Med MFC system provides regular and systematic information about the physical state of the ocean and marine ecosystems for the Mediterranean Sea. The Med-MFC service started in May 2015 from the pre-operational system developed during the MyOcean projects, consolidating the understanding of regional Mediterranean Sea dynamics, from currents to biogeochemistry to waves, interfacing with local data collection networks and guaranteeing an efficient link with other Centers in Copernicus network. The Med-MFC products include analyses, 10 days forecasts and reanalysis, describing currents, temperature, salinity, sea level and pelagic biogeochemistry. Waves products will be available in MED-MFC version in 2017. The consortium, composed of INGV (Italy), HCMR (Greece) and OGS (Italy) and coordinated by the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC, Italy), performs advanced R&D activities and manages the service delivery. The Med-MFC infrastructure consists of 3 Production Units (PU), for Physics, Biogechemistry and Waves, a unique Dissemination Unit (DU) and Archiving Unit (AU) and Backup Units (BU) for all principal components, guaranteeing a resilient configuration of the service and providing and efficient and robust solution for the maintenance of the service and delivery. The Med-MFC includes also an evolution plan, both in terms of research and operational activities, oriented to increase the spatial resolution of products, to start wave products dissemination, to increase temporal extent of the reanalysis products and improving ocean physical modeling for delivering new products. The scientific activities carried out in 2015 concerned some improvements in the physical, biogeochemical and wave components of the system. Regarding the currents, new grid-point EOFs have been implemented in the Med-MFC assimilation system; the climatological CMAP precipitation was replaced by the ECMWF daily precipitation; reanalysis time-series have been increased by one year. Regarding the biogeochemistry, the main scientific achievement is related to the implementation of the carbon system in the Med-MFC biogeochemistry model system already available. The new model is able to reproduce the principal spatial patterns of the carbonate system variables in the Mediterranean Sea. Further, a key result consists of the calibration of the new variables (DIC and alkalinity), which serves to the estimation of the accuracy of the new products to be released in the next version of the system (i.e. pH and pCO2 at surface). Regarding the waves, the system has been validated against in-situ and satellite observations. For example, a very good agreement between model output and in-situ observations has been obtained at offshore and/or well-exposed wave buoys in the Mediterranean Sea