Влияние национального локдауна на эпидемиологию травм во время первой волны COVID-19 в Индии

Background. The pattern of hospital admissions and medical care changed during the COVID pandemic. The aim of the study to describe the nature of patients attending the orthopedic emergency department of a level 1 trauma center in terms of number and proportion based on demographic characteristics and the nature of the injury before the lockdown, during the lockdown, and during the unlocking period of the nationwide lockdown for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in India. Methods. We conducted a longitudinal study from 01.01.2020 to 31.12.2020. Patients attending the orthopedic emergency were grouped based on cause, type, and site of injury. The median number observed each day with IQR. The distribution of the same was compared between the prelockdown with lockdown period and the lockdown period with a phased unlocking period. Results. A total of 10513 patients were included. There was a statistically significant reduction in the proportion of patients needing inpatient care between the prelockdown phase and lockdown phase (p = 0.008). However, this was not seen between lockdown and postlockdown periods (p = 0.47). The proportion of road traffic accidents dropped from 26% to 15% during this time (p0.001). The proportion of contusions was reduced and that of soft tissue injuries increased (p0.001). The proportion of lower limb injuries decreased from the prelockdown phase to the lockdown phase, and that of spinal injury patients increased (p = 0.007). The proportion of patients with contusions increased and soft tissue injuries decreased during this period (p0.001). Lower limb injuries and road traffic accidents increased, and spinal injuries were reduced (p0.001). Conclusion. The lockdown for controlling the spread of the pandemic affected the demographic and epidemiological aspects of injuries attending the orthopedic emergency department of a level 1 trauma center in a developing country. There was a decrease in the proportion of females and children attending the ED during the lockdown. The number of road traffic accedents s decreased during the lockdown. The number of patients with contusions attending the trauma center during the lockdown decreased, but there was an increase in the number of patients with spine injuries. We suggest that improvement in triage facilities, wider use of telemedicine, and increasing the stock of PPEs are essential for tackling such situations in the future.Введение. Во время пандемии COVID-19 изменилась структура госпитализаций и оказания медицинской помощи. Цель проанализировать эпидемиологию и тип травм, полученных пациентами, обратившимися в травмоцентр 1-го уровня во время пандемии и локдауна в Индии. Материал и методы. Мы провели лонгитюдное исследование с 01.01.2020 по 31.12.2020 Пациенты, обратившиеся за неотложной травматологической помощью, были сгруппированы в зависимости от причины, типа и места повреждения. Среднее число ежедненых обращений было расчитано с помощью IQR (интерквартильного размаха). Было проведено сравнение распределений среднего числа наблюдений между периодами до и во время локдауна, а также во время локдауна и после его снятия. Результаты. Всего в исследование было включено 10 513 пациентов. Наблюдалось статистически значимое снижение доли пациентов, нуждающихся в госпитализации, между периодами до и во время локдауна (p = 0,008). Однако этого не наблюдалось между периодами локдауна и постлокдауна (p = 0,47). Доля дорожно-транспортных происшествий снизилась с 26% до 15% между периодами до и во время локдауна (p0,001). Доля ушибов уменьшилась, а мягкотканных повреждений увеличилась (p0,001). Доля травм нижних конечностей уменьшилась между периодами до и во время локдауна, а доля травм позвоночника увеличилась (p = 0,007). Заключение. Национальный локдаун повлиял на демографические и эпидемиологические показатели травм в травмоцентре 1-го уровня в Индии. Наблюдалось снижение доли женщин и детей, обратившихся в отделение неотложной помощи. Количество ДТП сократилось во время локдауна. Количество пациентов с ушибами, обратившихся в травматологический центр во время локдауна уменьшилось, а количество пациентов с травмами позвоночника увеличилось. Мы рекомендуем улучшить медицинскую сортировку, расширить использование телемедицины и увеличить запасы средств индивидуальной защиты для борьбы с подобными ситуациями в будущем

Development of a Comprehensive Weld Process Model

This cooperative research and development agreement (CRADA) between Concurrent Technologies Corporation (CTC) and Lockheed Martin Energy Systems (LMES) combines CTC's expertise in the welding area and that of LMES to develop computer models and simulation software for welding processes. This development is of significant impact to the industry, including materials producers and fabricators. The main thrust of the research effort was to develop a comprehensive welding simulation methodology. A substantial amount of work has been done by several researchers to numerically model several welding processes. The primary drawback of most of the existing models is the lack of sound linkages between the mechanistic aspects (e.g., heat transfer, fluid flow, and residual stress) and the metallurgical aspects (e.g., microstructure development and control). A comprehensive numerical model which can be used to elucidate the effect of welding parameters/conditions on the temperature distribution, weld pool shape and size, solidification behavior, and microstructure development, as well as stresses and distortion, does not exist. It was therefore imperative to develop a comprehensive model which would predict all of the above phenomena during welding. The CRADA built upon an already existing three- dimensional (3-D) welding simulation model which was developed by LMES which is capable of predicting weld pool shape and the temperature history in 3-d single-pass welds. However, the model does not account for multipass welds, microstructural evolution, distortion and residual stresses. Additionally, the model requires large resources of computing time, which limits its use for practical applications. To overcome this, CTC and LMES have developed through this CRADA the comprehensive welding simulation model described above. The following technical tasks have been accomplished as part of the CRADA. 1. The LMES welding code has been ported to the Intel Paragon parallel computer at ORNL. The timing results illustrate the potential of the modified computer model for the analysis of large-scale welding simulations. 2. The kinetics of grain structure evolution in the weld heat affected zone (HAZ) has been simulated with reasonable accuracy by coupling an improved MC grain growth algorithm with a methodology for converting the MC parameters of grain size and time to real parameters. The simulations effectively captured the thermal pinning phenomenon that has been reported in the weld HAZ. 3. A cellular automaton (CA) code has been developed to simulate the solidification microstructure in the weld fusion zone. The simulations effectively captured the epitaxial growth of the HAZ grains, the grain selection mechanism, and the formation of typical grain structures observed in the weld t%sion zone. 4. The point heat source used in the LMES welding code has ben replaced with a distributed heat source to better capture the thermal characteristics and energy distributions in a commercial welding heat source. 5. Coupled thermal-mechanical and metallurgical models have been developed to accurately predict the weld residual stresses, and 6. Attempts have been made to integrate the newly developed computational capabilities into a comprehensive weld design tool

Catfish reappeared in Dakshina Kannada Coast

After a gap of several years catfish reappeared in Malpe during September, 1994. Three purse seiners together landed three tonnes of catfish Tachysurus serratus (90 per cent) and T. dussumieri (10 per cent

Cellular automata modeling of weld solidification structure

The authors explore the use of cellular automata in modeling arc-welding processes. A brief discussion of cellular automata and their previous use in micro-scale solidification simulations is presented. Macro-scale thermal calculations for arc-welding at a thin plate are shown to give good quantitative and qualitative results. Combining the two calculations in a single cellular array provides a realistic simulation of grain growth in a welding process. Results of simulating solidification in a moving melt pool in a poly-crystalline alloy sheet are presented

A coupled Monte Carlo-finite element approach to modeling microstructural evolution during static recrystallization

A novel methodology is presented for modeling static recrystallization in metals, by combining the finite element simulation of cold deformation with the Monte Carlo simulation of recovery and grain growth. A model based on crystal plasticity is used to simulate the deformation of an aggregate of grains, so as to capture the inhomogeneous deformation of individual grains, and the strain hardening and texture evolution in the aggregate. The non- uniform distributions of orientation and stored energy are then mapped onto a Monte Carlo grid for simulating static recrystallization. The method has been applied to compute the kinetics and microstructural evolution after different amounts of cold deformation, and leads to improved predictions due to use of more realistic data in the Monte Carlo simulations

Development of a comprehensive weld process model

This cooperative research and development agreement (CRADA) between Concurrent Technologies Corporation (CTC) and Lockheed Martin Energy Systems (LMES) combines CTC`s expertise in the welding area and that of LMES to develop computer models and simulation software for welding processes. This development is of significant impact to the industry, including materials producers and fabricators. The main thrust of the research effort was to develop a comprehensive welding simulation methodology. A substantial amount of work has been done by several researchers to numerically model several welding processes. The primary drawback of most of the existing models is the lack of sound linkages between the mechanistic aspects (e.g., heat transfer, fluid flow, and residual stress) and the metallurgical aspects (e.g., microstructure development and control). A comprehensive numerical model which can be used to elucidate the effect of welding parameters/conditions on the temperature distribution, weld pool shape and size, solidification behavior, and microstructure development, as well as stresses and distortion, does not exist. It was therefore imperative to develop a comprehensive model which would predict all of the above phenomena during welding. The CRADA built upon an already existing three-dimensional (3-D) welding simulation model which was developed by LMES which is capable of predicting weld pool shape and the temperature history in 3-d single-pass welds. However, the model does not account for multipass welds, microstructural evolution, distortion and residual stresses. Additionally, the model requires large resources of computing time, which limits its use for practical applications. To overcome this, CTC and LMES have developed through this CRADA the comprehensive welding simulation model described above

Population dynamics and stock assessment of grey sharpnose shark Rhizoprionodon oligolinx Springer, 1964 (Chondrichthyes: Carcharhinidae) from the north-west coast of India

The life history and exploitation parameters of Rhizoprionodon oligolinx Springer, 1964 were assessed using commercial landing data of 2012-2015 from Mumbai waters of India to understand the population dynamics and stock status of the species. The average annual landing of the species was estimated to be 383 t, which formed about 9.1% of the total shark landings of Maharashtra. L∞, K and t0 estimated were 97.1 cm, 0.47 yr-1 and -0.79 yr respectively. Total mortality (Z), fishing mortality (F) and natural mortality (M) rates were estimated as 2.16 yr-1, 1.48 yr-1 and 0.69 yr-1 respectively. The length at capture (L50), length at female maturity (Lm50) and male maturity (Lm50) were estimated as 49.7, 62.3 and 59.5 cm respectively, which indicated that most of the sharks entered peak phase of exploitation before attaining sexual maturity. Length-weight relationship indicated allometric growth (b>3) for the species. The species was found to be a continuous breeder and showed peak recruitment during April. The current exploitation rate (Ecur) was found to be 0.68, which is lower than Emax estimated for the species using Beverton and Holt yield per recruit analysis. Thompson and Bell prediction model showed that at current exploitation level, the biomass (B) has reduced to 32% of virgin biomass (B0) where as, the spawning stock biomass (SSB) has reduced to 16% of the virgin spawning stock biomass (SSB0). Hence the exploitation level for the species should be reduced by 40% that will ensure the availability of SSB at a relatively safer 30% level to rebuild the stock for long term sustainability of the resource

Observations on the biology of smooth dwarf monocle bream, Parascolopsis aspinosa (Rao & Rao, 1981) from Mangaluru, southwest coast of India

Some aspects of biological information is presented here for the little known smooth dwarf monocle bream, Parascolopsis aspinosa (Rao and Rao, 1981) (Perciformes: Nemipteridae) based on specimens collected from the bycatch of commercial shrimp trawlers operating in the Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast. Eight-hundred forty seven specimens measuring 7.4 to 22.8 cm TL, and weighing between 15.0 -216 g total weight were analysed for the study. The lengthweight relationships were found to be significantly different between the sexes (P<0.001). The coefficients ‘a’, ‘b’ of the length-weight relationship were estimated as 0.0333, 2.7919 (r2 = 0.961) for females and 0.0194, 2.9791 (r2 = 0.962) for males and the species follows a negative allometric growth pattern (b<3). The fish attains maturity (TL50) at 12.5 cm TL for females and 11.5 cm TL for males. P. aspinosa was found to breed throughout the year with peak spawning during August-September and January. The overall sex ratio (M:F) favoured females at the rate of 1:1.15. A seven-stage maturity was found and a progressive increase in the size of the ova was traced to advanced stages of maturity. The total fecundity of P. aspinosa ranged from 45,823 (12.3 cm TL; 41g body weight) to 1,56,308 (22.8 cm TL; 216 g body weight) with an average fecundity of 84,367 eggs. Analysis of the stomach contents (%IRI) revealed that P. aspinosa mainly fed on Saurida tumbil (%IRI=18.2), followed by Penaeus indicus (%IRI=16.7), Loligo spp. (%IRI=15.2), Squilla (%IRI=6.4), and Acetes spp (%IRI=2.7). Other detailed biological observations such as the length composition, sex ratio, and length at maturity (TL50) of P. aspinosa are also provided in the study. Since the species has been poorly studied and assessed as Least Concern (LC) in the IUCN red list criterion, it is expected that the biological information from the present study will support the ongoing data generation and help in arriving at management decisions for the species in the future

കാലാവസ്ഥാ വ്യതിയാനവുമായി ബന്ധപ്പെട്ട് ഭാരതത്തിലെ കടൽ മത്സ്യത്തൊഴിലാളികൾ ആർജ്ജിച്ചെടുത്ത തദ്ദേശീയ സാങ്കേതിക ജ്ഞാനം (Indigenous Technical Knowledge (ITKs’) of Indian Marine Fishermen with reference to Climate Change)

The fisher folk of coastal India possess a rich repertoire of ancient knowledge and traditional wisdom with respect to various climate change related phenomena which they have made use of in their day to day fishing activities. This provides them, the rule of the thumb to be followed with respect to observed indicators or relationship with in events of climate change related inflections. These local fisher communities over centuries, have developed and implemented extensive mitigation and adaptation strategies that have enabled them reduce their vulnerability to past climate variability and change. However, the fact that this rich treasure house of indigenous wisdom which serves as a complement to modern scientific methods of adapting and mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change in fisheries has been largely ignored or rather receded into the mists of antiquity