Forecasting with auxiliary information in forecasts using multivariate singular spectrum analysis

The internet gives us free access to a variety of published forecasts. Motivated by this increasing availability of data, we seek to determine whether there is a possibility of exploiting auxiliary information contained within a given forecast to generate a new and more accurate forecast. The proposed theoretical concept requires a multivariate model which can consider data with different series lengths as forecasts are predictions into the future. Following applications which consider published forecasts generated via unknown time series models and forecasts from univariate models, we achieve promising results whereby the proposed multivariate approach succeeds in extracting the auxiliary information in a given forecast for generating a new and more accurate forecast, along with statistically significant accuracy gains in certain cases. In addition, the impact of filtering and the use of Google Trends within the proposed methodology is also considered. Overall, we find conclusive evidence which suggests a sound opportunity to exploit the forecastability of auxiliary information contained within existing forecasts

National Spinal Cord Injury Registry of Iran (NSCIR-IR) � a critical appraisal of its strengths and weaknesses

The National Spinal Cord Injury Registry of Iran (NSCIR-IR) is a not-for-profit, hospital-based, and prospective observational registry that appraises the quality of care, long-term outcomes and the personal and psychological burden of traumatic spinal cord injury in Iran. Benchmarking validity in every registry includes rigorous attention to data quality. Data quality assurance is essential for any registry to make sure that correct patients are being enrolled and that the data being collected are valid. We reviewed strengths and weaknesses of the NSCIR-IR while considering the methodological guidelines and recommendations for efficient and rational governance of patient registries. In summary, the steering committee, funded and maintained by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran, the international collaborations, continued staff training, suitable data quality, and the ethical approval are considered to be the strengths of the registry, while limited human and financial resources, poor interoperability with other health systems, and time-consuming processes are among its main weaknesses. © 2019 Chinese Medical Associatio

The data set development for the National Spinal Cord Injury Registry of Iran (NSCIR-IR): progress toward improving the quality of care

STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive study. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this manuscript is to describe the development process of the data set for the National Spinal Cord Injury Registry of Iran (NSCIR-IR). SETTING: SCI community in Iran. METHODS: The NSCIR-IR data set was developed in 8 months, from March 2015 to October 2015. An expert panel of 14 members was formed. After a review of data sets of similar registries in developed countries, the selection and modification of the basic framework were performed over 16 meetings, based on the objectives and feasibility of the registry. RESULTS: The final version of the data set was composed of 376 data elements including sociodemographic, hospital admission, injury incidence, prehospital procedures, emergency department visit, medical history, vertebral injury, spinal cord injury details, interventions, complications, and discharge data. It also includes 163 components of the International Standards for the Neurologic Classification of Spinal Cord Injury (ISNCSCI) and 65 data elements related to quality of life, pressure ulcers, pain, and spasticity. CONCLUSION: The NSCIR-IR data set was developed in order to meet the quality improvement objectives of the registry. The process was centered around choosing the data elements assessing care provided to individuals in the acute and chronic phases of SCI in hospital settings. The International Spinal Cord Injury Data Set was selected as a basic framework, helped by comparison with data from other countries. Expert panel modifications facilitated the implementation of the registry process with the current clinical workflow in hospitals

Black Holes in Ho\v{r}ava Gravity with Higher Derivative Magnetic Terms

We consider Horava gravity coupled to Maxwell and higher derivative magnetic terms. We construct static spherically symmetric black hole solutions in the low-energy approximation. We calculate the horizon locations and temperatures in the near-extremal limit, for asymptotically flat and (anti-)de Sitter spaces. We also construct a detailed balanced version of the theory, for which we find projectable and non-projectable, non-perturbative solutions.Comment: 17 pages. v2: Up to date with published version; some minor remarks and more reference

Perturbative instabilities in Horava gravity

We investigate the scalar and tensor perturbations in Horava gravity, with and without detailed balance, around a flat background. Once both types of perturbations are taken into account, it is revealed that the theory is plagued by ghost-like scalar instabilities in the range of parameters which would render it power-counting renormalizable, that cannot be overcome by simple tricks such as analytic continuation. Implementing a consistent flow between the UV and IR limits seems thus more challenging than initially presumed, regardless of whether the theory approaches General Relativity at low energies or not. Even in the phenomenologically viable parameter space, the tensor sector leads to additional potential problems, such as fine-tunings and super-luminal propagation.Comment: 21 pages, version published at Class. Quant. Gra

On higher derivative gravity, c-theorems and cosmology

We consider higher derivative gravity lagrangians in 3 and 4 dimensions, which admit simple c-theorems, including upto six derivative curvature invariants. Following a suggestion by Myers, these lagrangians are restricted such that the fluctuations around (anti) de Sitter spaces have second order linearized equations of motion. We study c-theorems both in the context of AdS/CFT and cosmology. In the context of cosmology, the monotonic function is the entropy defined on the apparent horizon through Wald's formula. Exact black hole solutions which are asymptotically (anti) de Sitter are presented. An interesting lower bound for entropy is found in de Sitter space. Some aspects of cosmology in both D=3 and D=4 are discussed.Comment: 23 pages, v3: clarifications added, references adde

Horava-Lifshitz Holography

We derive the detailed balance condition as a solution to the Hamilton-Jacobi equation in the Horava-Lifshitz gravity. This result leads us to propose the existence of the d-dimensional quantum field theory on the future boundary of the (d+1)-dimensional Horava-Lifshitz gravity from the viewpoint of the holographic renormalization group. We also obtain a Ricci flow equation of the boundary theory as the holographic RG flow, which is the Hamilton equation in the bulk gravity, by tuning parameters in the theory.Comment: 7 page

Coupled dark energy: Towards a general description of the dynamics

In dark energy models of scalar-field coupled to a barotropic perfect fluid, the existence of cosmological scaling solutions restricts the Lagrangian of the field \vp to p=X g(Xe^{\lambda \vp}), where X=-g^{\mu\nu} \partial_\mu \vp \partial_\nu \vp /2, $\lambda$ is a constant and $g$ is an arbitrary function. We derive general evolution equations in an autonomous form for this Lagrangian and investigate the stability of fixed points for several different dark energy models--(i) ordinary (phantom) field, (ii) dilatonic ghost condensate, and (iii) (phantom) tachyon. We find the existence of scalar-field dominant fixed points (\Omega_\vp=1) with an accelerated expansion in all models irrespective of the presence of the coupling $Q$ between dark energy and dark matter. These fixed points are always classically stable for a phantom field, implying that the universe is eventually dominated by the energy density of a scalar field if phantom is responsible for dark energy. When the equation of state w_\vp for the field \vp is larger than -1, we find that scaling solutions are stable if the scalar-field dominant solution is unstable, and vice versa. Therefore in this case the final attractor is either a scaling solution with constant \Omega_\vp satisfying 0<\Omega_\vp<1 or a scalar-field dominant solution with \Omega_\vp=1.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures; minor clarifications added, typos corrected and references updated; final version to appear in JCA