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Simple deterministic and complex probabilistic regularities underlying risky choices are acquired in a changing decision context
Beliefs about positive and negative outcome probabilities have been frequently investigated in experience-based risky decision making. However, it has not been clarified how these beliefs emerge and whether they remain persistent if the predictability and complexity of outcome probabilities change across decision contexts. Hence, the present study manipulated these two factors in a variant of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task performed by healthy young adults. In the first and final task phases, outcomes (rewards or balloon bursts) were predictable because of the presence of an underlying regularity. In the middle phase, outcomes were unpredictable because the regularity was absent. The complexity of the regularity differed across the deterministic, probabilistic, and hybrid experimental conditions. In the simple deterministic condition, a repeating sequence of three deterministic regularities perfectly predicted balloon bursts. In the more complex probabilistic condition, a single probabilistic regularity ensured that the probability of balloon bursts increased with each successive pump. In the most complex hybrid condition, a repeating sequence of three different probabilistic regularities increased burst probabilities. Even without informing participants about the presence or absence of the regularity, sensitivity to both the simple deterministic and the most complex hybrid regularities emerged and influenced risk taking. Unpredictable outcomes of the middle phase did not deteriorate the acquired sensitivity to these regularities. When only a single probabilistic regularity was present, predictable and unpredictable outcomes were processed similarly. In conclusion, assuming the reappearance of the initially experienced regularity, the robustness of representations might serve fast adaptation in a volatile decision environment
Adaptation to recent outcomes attenuates the lasting effect of initial experience on risky decisions
Both primarily and recently encountered information have been shown to influence experience-based risky decision making. The primacy effect predicts that initial experience will influence later choices even if outcome probabilities change and reward is ultimately more or less sparse than primarily experienced. However, it has not been investigated whether extended initial experience would induce a more profound primacy effect upon risky choices than brief experience. Therefore, the present study tested in two experiments whether young adults adjusted their risk-taking behavior in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task after an unsignaled and unexpected change point. The change point separated early "good luck" or "bad luck" trials from subsequent ones. While mostly positive (more reward) or mostly negative (no reward) events characterized the early trials, subsequent trials were unbiased. In Experiment 1, the change point occurred after one-sixth or one-third of the trials (brief vs. extended experience) without intermittence, whereas in Experiment 2, it occurred between separate task phases. In Experiment 1, if negative events characterized the early trials, after the change point, risk-taking behavior increased as compared with the early trials. Conversely, if positive events characterized the early trials, risk-taking behavior decreased after the change point. Although the adjustment of risk-taking behavior occurred due to integrating recent experiences, the impact of initial experience was simultaneously observed. The length of initial experience did not reliably influence the adjustment of behavior. In Experiment 2, participants became more prone to take risks as the task progressed, indicating that the impact of initial experience could be overcome. Altogether, we suggest that initial beliefs about outcome probabilities can be updated by recent experiences to adapt to the continuously changing decision environment