Rapid reduction in black carbon emissions from China: evidence from 2009–2019 observations on Fukue Island, Japan

A long-term, robust observational record of atmospheric black carbon (BC) concentrations at Fukue Island for 2009–2019 was produced by unifying the data from a continuous soot monitoring system (COSMOS) and a Multi-Angle Absorption Photometer (MAAP). This record was then used to analyze emission trends from China. We identified a rapid reduction in BC concentrations of (−5.8±1.5) % yr−1 or −48 % from 2010 to 2018. We concluded that an emission change of (−5.3±0.7) % yr−1, related to changes in China of as much as −4.6 % yr−1, was the main underlying driver. This evaluation was made after correcting for the interannual meteorological variability (IAV) by using the regional atmospheric chemistry model simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models (collectively WRF/CMAQ) with the constant emissions. This resolves the current fundamental disagreements about the sign of the BC emissions trend from China over the past decade as assessed from bottom-up emission inventories. Our analysis supports inventories reflecting the governmental clean air actions after 2010 (e.g., MEIC1.3, ECLIPSE versions 5a and 6b, and the Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) version 3.1) and recommends revisions to those that do not (e.g., Community Emissions Data System – CEDS). Our estimated emission trends were fairly uniform across seasons but diverse among air mass origins. Stronger BC reductions, accompanied by a reduction in carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, occurred in regions of south-central East China, while weaker BC reductions occurred in north-central East China and northeastern China. Prior to 2017, the BC and CO emissions trends were both unexpectedly positive in northeastern China during winter months, which possibly influenced the climate at higher latitudes. The pace of the estimated emissions reduction over China surpasses the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs with reference to SSP1, specifically) scenarios for 2015–2030, which suggests highly successful emission control policies. At Fukue Island, the BC fraction of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) also steadily decreased over the last decade. This suggests that reductions in BC emissions started without significant delay when compared to other pollutants such as NOx and SO2, which are among the key precursors of scattering PM2.5

Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation in Acute Myocardial Infarction

[Background] It remains controversial whether long‐term clinical impact of newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) in the acute phase of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is different from that of prior AF diagnosed before the onset of AMI. [Methods and Results] The current study population from the CREDO‐Kyoto AMI (Coronary Revascularization Demonstrating Outcome Study in Kyoto Acute Myocardial Infarction) Registry Wave‐2 consisted of 6228 patients with AMI who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention. The baseline characteristics and long‐term clinical outcomes were compared according to AF status (newly diagnosed AF: N=489 [7.9%], prior AF: N=589 [9.5%], and no AF: N=5150 [82.7%]). Median follow‐up duration was 5.5 years. Patients with newly diagnosed AF and prior AF had similar baseline characteristics with higher risk profile than those with no AF including older age and more comorbidities. The cumulative 5‐year incidence of all‐cause death was higher in newly diagnosed AF and prior AF than no AF (38.8%, 40.7%, and 18.7%, P<0.001). The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality of newly diagnosed AF and prior AF relative to no AF remained significant with similar magnitude (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.12–1.54; P<0.001, and HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.14–1.52; P<0.001, respectively). The cumulative 5‐year incidence of stroke decreased in the order of newly diagnosed AF, prior AF and no AF (15.5%, 12.9%, and 6.3%, respectively, P<0.001). The higher adjusted HRs of both newly diagnosed AF and prior AF relative to no AF were significant for stroke, with a greater risk of newly diagnosed AF than that of prior AF (HR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.56–2.69; P<0.001, and HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.00–1.78; P=0.048, respectively). The higher stroke risk of newly diagnosed AF compared with prior AF was largely driven by the greater risk within 30 days. The higher adjusted HRs of newly diagnosed AF and prior AF relative to no AF were significant for heart failure hospitalization (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.35–2.22; P<0.001, and HR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.82–2.74; P<0.001, respectively) and major bleeding (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.23–1.73; P<0.001, and HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.15–1.60; P<0.001, respectively). [Conclusions] Newly diagnosed AF in AMI had risks for mortality, heart failure hospitalization, and major bleeding higher than no AF, and comparable to prior AF. The risk of newly diagnosed AF for stroke might be higher than that of prior AF

Demographics, practice patterns and long-term outcomes of patients with non–ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome in the past two decades: the CREDO-Kyoto Cohort-2 and Cohort-3

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate patient characteristics and long-term outcomes in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS) in the past two decades. DESIGN: Multicenter retrospective study. SETTING: The Coronary REvascularization Demonstrating Outcome Study in Kyoto (CREDO-Kyoto) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)/coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) Registry Cohort-2 (2005-2007) and Cohort-3 (2011-2013). PARTICIPANTS: 3254 patients with NSTEACS who underwent first coronary revascularisation. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcomes were cardiovascular death, cardiac death, sudden cardiac death, non-cardiovascular death, non-cardiac death, myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, stroke, hospitalisation for heart failure, major bleeding, any coronary revascularisation and target vessel revascularisation. RESULTS: Patients in Cohort-3 were older and more often had heart failure at admission than those in Cohort-2. The prevalence of PCI, emergency procedure and guideline-directed medical therapy was higher in Cohort-3 than in Cohort-2. In patients who received PCI, the prevalence of transradial approach, drug-eluting stent use and intravascular ultrasound use was higher in Cohort-3 than in Cohort-2. There was no change in 3-year adjusted mortality risk from Cohort-2 to Cohort-3 (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.22, p=0.97). Patients in Cohort-3 compared with those in Cohort-2 were associated with lower adjusted risks for stroke (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.92, p=0.02) and any coronary revascularisation (HR 0.76, 95%CI 0.66 to 0.87, p<0.001), but with higher risk for major bleeding (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.47, p=0.008). The unadjusted risk for definite stent thrombosis was lower in Cohort-3 than in Cohort 2 (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.67, p=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: In the past two decades, we did not find improvement for mortality in patients with NSTEACS. We observed a reduction in the risks for definite stent thrombosis, stroke and any coronary revascularisation, but an increase in the risk for major bleeding

sdLDL-C and Cardiovascular Events

Aim: There is little information on the relationships of serum small dense low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (sdLDL-C) levels and serum triglyceride (TG) levels with cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) who are receiving statins. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationships of serum TG levels and sdLDL-C levels as residual risks for cardiovascular events in patients with CAD and type 2 DM who were being treated with statins. Methods: The subjects were divided into four groups based on TG levels and sdLDL-C levels: sdLDL-C of ＜40.0 mg/dL and TG of ＜150 mg/dL, sdLDL-C of ≥ 40.0 mg/dL and TG of ＜150 mg/dL, sdLDL-C of ＜40.0 mg/dL and TG of ≥ 150 mg/dL, and sdLDL-C of ≥ 40.0 mg/dL and TG of ≥ 150 mg/dL. During a median follow-up period of 1419 days, cardiovascular events occurred in 34 patients. Results: The incidences of cardiovascular events were significantly higher in patients with sdLDL-C of ≥ 40.0 mg/dL and TG of ＜150 mg/dL and in patients with sdLDL-C of ≥ 40.0 mg/dL and TG of ≥ 150 mg/dL, but not in patients with sdLDL-C of ＜40.0 mg/dL and TG of ≥ 150 mg/dL, than in patients with sdLDL-C of ＜40.0 mg/dL and TG of ＜150 mg/dL. Conclusions: Under the condition of treatment with statins, patients with CAD and type 2 DM who had sdLDL-C levels of ≥ 40.0 mg/dL had a high risk for cardiovascular events even though serum TG levels were controlled at ＜150 mg/dL

Clopidogrel Monotherapy After 1-Month Dual Antiplatelet Therapy in Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: From the STOPDAPT-2 Total Cohort

[Background:] The benefit of clopidogrel monotherapy after 1-month dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) compared with 12-month DAPT with aspirin and clopidogrel was demonstrated in the STOPDAPT-2 (Short and Optimal Duration of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy After Everolimus-Eluting Cobalt-Chromium Stent-2), but not in the STOPDAPT-2 acute coronary syndrome (ACS); however, both trials were underpowered based on the actual event rates. [Methods:] We obtained the prespecified pooled population of 5997 patients as the STOPDAPT-2 total cohort (STOPDAPT-2: N=3009/STOPDAPT-2 ACS: N=2988; ACS: N=4136/chronic coronary syndrome [CCS]: N=1861), comprising 2993 patients assigned to 1-month DAPT followed by clopidogrel monotherapy, and 3004 patients assigned to 12-month DAPT with aspirin and clopidogrel after percutaneous coronary intervention. The primary end point was the composite of cardiovascular (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, or any stroke) or bleeding (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction major/minor) end points at 1 year. [Results:] One-month DAPT was noninferior to 12-month DAPT for the primary end point (2.84% versus 3.04%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.94 [95% CI, 0.70–1.27]; Pnoninferiority=0.001; Psuperiority=0.68). There was no significant risk-difference for the cardiovascular end point between the 1- and 12-month DAPT groups (2.40% versus 1.97%; HR, 1.24 [95% CI, 0.88–1.75]; Pnoninferiority=0.14; Psuperiority=0.23). There was a lower risk of the bleeding end point with 1-month DAPT relative to 12-month DAPT (0.50% versus 1.31%; HR, 0.38 [95% CI, 0.21–0.70]; Psuperiority=0.002). One-month DAPT relative to 12-month DAPT was associated with a lower risk for major bleeding regardless of ACS or CCS (ACS: HR, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.23–0.94]; P=0.03, and CCS: HR, 0.26 [95% CI, 0.09–0.79]; P=0.02; Pinteraction=0.40), while it was associated with a numerical increase in cardiovascular events in ACS patients, but not in CCS patients, although not statistically significant and without interaction (ACS: HR, 1.50 [95% CI, 0.99–2.27]; P=0.053, and CCS: HR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.38–1.45]; P=0.39; Pinteraction=0.08). [Conclusions:] Clopidogrel monotherapy after 1-month DAPT compared with 12-month DAPT with aspirin and clopidogrel had a benefit in reducing major bleeding events without being associated with increase in cardiovascular events

Clopidogrel Monotherapy After 1-Month DAPT in Patients With High Bleeding Risk or Complex PCI

BACKGROUND: High bleeding risk (HBR) and complex percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are major determinants for dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) duration. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of HBR and complex PCI on short vs standard DAPT. METHODS: Subgroup analyses were conducted on the basis of Academic Research Consortium-defined HBR and complex PCI in the STOPDAPT-2 (Short and Optimal Duration of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy After Verulam's-Eluting Cobalt-Chromium Stent-2) Total Cohort, which randomly compared clopidogrel monotherapy after 1-month DAPT with 12-month DAPT with aspirin and clopidogrel after PCI. The primary endpoint was the composite of cardiovascular (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, or stroke) or bleeding (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction [TIMI] major or minor) endpoints at 1 year. RESULTS: Regardless of HBR (n = 1, 893 [31.6%]) and complex PCI (n = 999 [16.7%]), the risk of 1-month DAPT relative to 12-month DAPT was not significant for the primary endpoint (HBR, 5.01% vs 5.14%; non-HBR, 1.90% vs 2.02%; P interaction = 0.95) (complex PCI, 3.15% vs 4.07%; noncomplex PCI, 2.78% vs 2.82%; P interaction = 0.48) and for the cardiovascular endpoint (HBR, 4.35% vs 3.52%; and non-HBR, 1.56% vs 1.22%; P interaction = 0.90) (complex PCI, 2.53% vs 2.52%; noncomplex PCI, 2.38% vs 1.86%; P interaction = 0.53), while it was lower for the bleeding endpoint (HBR, 0.66% vs 2.27%; non-HBR, 0.43% vs 0.85%; P interaction = 0.36) (complex PCI, 0.63% vs 1.75%; noncomplex PCI, 0.48% vs 1.22%; P interaction = 0.90). The absolute difference in the bleeding between 1- and 12-month DAPT was numerically greater in patients with HBR than in those without HBR (-1.61% vs -0.42%). CONCLUSIONS: The effects of 1-month DAPT relative to 12-month DAPT were consistent regardless of HBR and complex PCI. The absolute benefit of 1-month DAPT over 12-month DAPT in reducing major bleeding was numerically greater in patients with HBR than in those without HBR. Complex PCI might not be an appropriate determinant for DAPT durations after PCI. (Short and Optimal Duration of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy After Everolimus-Eluting Cobalt-Chromium Stent-2 [STOPDAPT-2], NCT02619760; Short and Optimal Duration of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy After Everolimus-Eluting Cobalt-Chromium Stent-2 for the Patients With ACS [STOPDAPT-2 ACS], NCT03462498)

Effect of Heart Failure on Long‐Term Clinical Outcomes After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting in Patients With Severe Coronary Artery Disease

[Background] Heart failure might be an important determinant in choosing coronary revascularization modalities. There was no previous study evaluating the effect of heart failure on long‐term clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) relative to coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). [Methods and Results] Among 14 867 consecutive patients undergoing first coronary revascularization with PCI or isolated CABG between January 2011 and December 2013 in the CREDO‐Kyoto PCI/CABG registry Cohort‐3, we identified the current study population of 3380 patients with three‐vessel or left main coronary artery disease, and compared clinical outcomes between PCI and CABG stratified by the subgroup based on the status of heart failure. There were 827 patients with heart failure (PCI: N=511, and CABG: N=316), and 2553 patients without heart failure (PCI: N=1619, and CABG: N=934). In patients with heart failure, the PCI group compared with the CABG group more often had advanced age, severe frailty, acute and severe heart failure, and elevated inflammatory markers. During a median 5.9 years of follow‐up, there was a significant interaction between heart failure and the mortality risk of PCI relative to CABG (interaction P=0.009), with excess mortality risk of PCI relative to CABG in patients with heart failure (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.28–2.42; P<0.001) and no excess mortality risk in patients without heart failure (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.80–1.34; P=0.77). [Conclusions] There was a significant interaction between heart failure and the mortality risk of PCI relative to CABG with excess risk in patients with heart failure and neutral risk in patients without heart failure

Diagnostic Criteria of FMD and NID

Background - Diagnostic criteria of flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD), an index of endothelial function, and nitroglycerin-induced vasodilation (NID), an index of vascular smooth muscle function, of the brachial artery have not been established. The purpose of this study was to propose diagnostic criteria of FMD and NID for normal endothelial function and normal vascular smooth muscle function. Methods and Results - We investigated the cutoff values of FMD and NID in subjects with (risk group) and those without cardiovascular risk factors or cardiovascular diseases (no-risk group) in 7277 Japanese subjects (mean age 51.4±10.8 years) from the Flow-Mediated Dilation Japan study and the Flow-Mediated Dilatation Japan Registry study for analysis of the cutoff value of FMD and in 1764 Japanese subjects (62.2±16.1 years) from the registry of Hiroshima University Hospital for analysis of the cutoff value of NID. Receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis of FMD to discriminate subjects in the no-risk group from patients in the risk group showed that the optimal cutoff value of FMD to diagnose subjects in the no-risk group was 7.1%. Receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis of NID to discriminate subjects in the no-risk group from patients in the risk group showed that the optimal cutoff value of NID to diagnose subjects in the no-risk group was 15.6%. Conclusions - We propose that the cutoff value for normal endothelial function assessed by FMD of the brachial artery is 7.1% and that the cutoff value for normal vascular smooth muscle function assessed by NID of the brachial artery is 15.6% in Japanese subjects

Percutaneous coronary intervention using new-generation drug-eluting stents versus coronary arterial bypass grafting in stable patients with multi-vessel coronary artery disease: From the CREDO-Kyoto PCI/CABG registry Cohort-3

AIMS: There is a scarcity of studies comparing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using new-generation drug-eluting stents (DES) with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with multi-vessel coronary artery disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: The CREDO-Kyoto PCI/CABG registry Cohort-3 enrolled 14927 consecutive patients who underwent first coronary revascularization with PCI or isolated CABG between January 2011 and December 2013. The current study population consisted of 2464 patients who underwent multi-vessel coronary revascularization including revascularization of left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD) either with PCI using new-generation DES (N = 1565), or with CABG (N = 899). Patients in the PCI group were older and more often had severe frailty, but had less complex coronary anatomy, and less complete revascularization than those in the CABG group. Cumulative 5-year incidence of a composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction or stroke was not significantly different between the 2 groups (25.0% versus 21.5%, P = 0.15). However, after adjusting confounders, the excess risk of PCI relative to CABG turned to be significant for the composite endpoint (HR 1.27, 95%CI 1.04-1.55, P = 0.02). PCI as compared with CABG was associated with comparable adjusted risk for all-cause death (HR 1.22, 95%CI 0.96-1.55, P = 0.11), and stroke (HR 1.17, 95%CI 0.79-1.73, P = 0.44), but with excess adjusted risk for myocardial infarction (HR 1.58, 95%CI 1.05-2.39, P = 0.03), and any coronary revascularization (HR 2.66, 95%CI 2.06-3.43, P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In this observational study, PCI with new-generation DES as compared with CABG was associated with excess long-term risk for major cardiovascular events in patients who underwent multi-vessel coronary revascularization including LAD

Genetic Predisposition to Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose—The prediction of genetic predispositions to ischemic stroke (IS) may allow the identification of individuals at elevated risk and thereby prevent IS in clinical practice. Previously developed weighted multilocus genetic risk scores showed limited predictive ability for IS. Here, we investigated the predictive ability of a newer method, polygenic risk score (polyGRS), based on the idea that a few strong signals, as well as several weaker signals, can be collectively informative to determine IS risk.Methods—We genotyped 13 214 Japanese individuals with IS and 26 470 controls (derivation samples) and generated both multilocus genetic risk scores and polyGRS, using the same derivation data set. The predictive abilities of each scoring system were then assessed using 2 independent sets of Japanese samples (KyushuU and JPJM data sets).Results—In both validation data sets, polyGRS was shown to be significantly associated with IS, but weighted multilocus genetic risk scores was not. Comparing the highest with the lowest polyGRS quintile, the odds ratios for IS were 1.75 (95% confidence interval, 1.33–2.31) and 1.99 (95% confidence interval, 1.19–3.33) in the KyushuU and JPJM samples, respectively. Using the KyushuU samples, the addition of polyGRS to a nongenetic risk model resulted in a significant improvement of the predictive ability (net reclassification improvement=0.151; P<0.001).Conclusions—The polyGRS was shown to be superior to weighted multilocus genetic risk scores as an IS prediction model. Thus, together with the nongenetic risk factors, polyGRS will provide valuable information for individual risk assessment and management of modifiable risk factors