Trend Analysis of Teenage Pregnancy in Nigeria (1961-2013): How Effective is the Contraceptive Use Campaign

Teenage pregnancy (TP) is a recurrent global and public health problem. It poses both social and health challenges. Considering the massive campaign on the use of modern contraceptives to prevent TP in recent decades, we assessed trends in TP in Nigeria between 1961 and 2013. Pregnancy and contraception history of 70,811 women who were at least 20 years old when the Nigerian DHS was conducted in 1990, 2003, 2008, and 2013 respectively were used for the study, and descriptive statistics, time analysis techniques and multiple logistic regression were used to analyze the data at 5% significance level. The overall prevalence of TP between 1961 and 2013 was 49.5% which fluctuated insignificantly during the studied period. The TP prevalence among women who entered adulthood in 1961 was 39.2%; it peaked in 1978 at 58.9% before its unsteady decline to 39.6% in 2012, and then rose sharply to 55.6% in 2013. We predicted TP prevalence as 49.0%, 49.9% and 51.0% in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively. The odds of TP were over 4 times higher in the North East and 5 times higher in the North West than in the South West. Teenagers with no education had higher odds of TP and it was higher among teenagers from the poorest households (OR=5.64, 95% CI: 5.36-5.94). Rather than reducing with the worldwide acknowledged increase in contraceptive campaigns, TP increased over the years studied. As far as TP is concerned in Nigeria, the impact of the campaign on MC use is far from being effective. To achieve the objective of fewer TPs, fewer resources should be spent on access to contraception and instead diverted to areas more likely to achieve results such as improvements in educational achievement amongst girls

PROJECTION OF CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS EMISSION FROM ON-ROAD VEHICLES IN THE MEGACITY OF LAGOS, NIGERIA

The increase in the mode of transportation has become a serious environmental threat that has resulted in the emission of criteria air pollutants (CAPs) into the atmosphere. These CAPs are sulphur oxides (SOx), particulate matter (PM), lead (Pb), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxides (NOx). This study examined the emission of CAPs from road traffic use in Lagos State. Data for the inventories of the production of these five sources were taken from 1997–2011 and were used to forecast CAPs emissions from 2012–2030. The petroleum products consumption data were sourced from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). Five categories of CAPs were studied and their corresponding emissions from 1997–2011 were computed as follows: SOx: 209–15,358t, NOx: 2,038–25,692t, CO: 24,996–186,202t, PM: 155–995t, Pb: 0.8 4.5t. Projection and forecasting of CAPs emissions from 2012 to 2030 were carried out using the Box Jenkins ARIMA method. There were close similarities between the observed and forecast values. The predicted CAPs emissions between 2012 to 2030 will be 309t for SOx, 22,600 – 41,300t for NOx, 100,000 – 300,000t for CO, 414t for PM, and 0.7t for Pb. The study concluded that there is tendency for these CAPs emissions to increase if the authorities and stakeholders do nothing. Several mitigation measures aimed towards reducing future CAPs emissions in Lagos State were recommended for the various sources

Perspectives of different stakeholders on data use and management in public health emergencies in sub-Saharan Africa: a meeting report

During public health emergencies (PHEs), data are collected and generated from a variety of activities and sources, including but not limited to national public health programs, research and community-based activities. It is critical that these data are rapidly shared in order to facilitate the public health response, epidemic preparedness, as well as research during and after the epidemic. Nonetheless, collecting and sharing data during PHEs can be challenging, especially where there are limited resources for public health and research-related activities. In a symposium that brought together different stakeholders that were involved in the 2013-2016 Ebola outbreaks in West Africa, meeting attendees shared their perspectives on the values and management of data during PHEs in sub-Saharan Africa. Key factors that could inform and facilitate data management during PHEs in sub-Saharan Africa were discussed, including using data to inform policy decisions and healthcare; a coordinated data collection and management scheme; identifying incentives for data sharing; and equitable data  governance mechanism that emphasise principles of reciprocity, transparency and accountability rather that trust between stakeholders or collaborators. Empirical studies are required to explore how these principles could inform best practices for data management and governance during PHE in sub-Saharan Africa.</ns3:p

Perspectives of different stakeholders on data use and management in public health emergencies in sub-Saharan Africa: a meeting report

During public health emergencies (PHEs), data are collected and generated from a variety of activities and sources, including but not limited to national public health programs, research and community-based activities. It is critical that these data are rapidly shared in order to facilitate the public health response, epidemic preparedness, as well as research during and after the epidemic. Nonetheless, collecting and sharing data during PHEs can be challenging, especially where there are limited resources for public health and research-related activities. In a symposium that brought together different stakeholders that were involved in the 2013-2016 Ebola outbreaks in West Africa, meeting attendees shared their perspectives on the values and management of data during PHEs in sub-Saharan Africa. Key factors that could inform and facilitate data management during PHEs in sub-Saharan Africa were discussed, including using data to inform policy decisions and healthcare; a coordinated data collection and management scheme; identifying incentives for data sharing; and equitable data  governance mechanism that emphasise principles of reciprocity, transparency and accountability rather that trust between stakeholders or collaborators. Empirical studies are required to explore how these principles could inform best practices for data management and governance during PHE in sub-Saharan Africa.</ns3:p

Emergence and spread of two SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest in Nigeria.

Identifying the dissemination patterns and impacts of a virus of economic or health importance during a pandemic is crucial, as it informs the public on policies for containment in order to reduce the spread of the virus. In this study, we integrated genomic and travel data to investigate the emergence and spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.318 and B.1.525 (Eta) variants of interest in Nigeria and the wider Africa region. By integrating travel data and phylogeographic reconstructions, we find that these two variants that arose during the second wave in Nigeria emerged from within Africa, with the B.1.525 from Nigeria, and then spread to other parts of the world. Data from this study show how regional connectivity of Nigeria drove the spread of these variants of interest to surrounding countries and those connected by air-traffic. Our findings demonstrate the power of genomic analysis when combined with mobility and epidemiological data to identify the drivers of transmission, as bidirectional transmission within and between African nations are grossly underestimated as seen in our import risk index estimates

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. Methods We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. Findings Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. Interpretation As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Screening of yeasts obtained from different fermented foods for their ability to produce pectinase

In the present study, Citrus pectin was used for the production of pectinase enzyme by yeast isolates using submerged fermentation. Fifty yeasts were isolated from different fermented foods and screened for their producing ability. Candida sp. OG2 and Candida tropicalis strain AUMC 10275 were the yeast isolates with the best potential of pectinase production. Fermentation parameters such as incubation period, pH, temperature, carbon and nitrogen source were optimized under submerged fermentation. The optimal conditions for pectinase production were found to be incubation time 48 hours, pH 6.0 and temperature 40°C. Citrus pectin best induced the production of pectinase while yeast extract/peptone (1:1) was the best source of nitrogen. Pectinase produced by Candida tropicalis strain AUMC 10275 was purified at 4.00 folds with a specific activity of 63.99 U/ml. The yeasts obtained from fermented foods have the ability to produce pectinase enzyme under optimized conditions and can be used for industrial purposes. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.382864

Modification of the Vipulanandan rheological model with correlation for temperature and electrolyte effect on drilling muds.

Modelling the flow of drilling muds requires the use of existing generic time-independent models with a number of parameters incorporated. While these parameters quantify the uncertainties surrounding the mud rheology, the tuning of each parameter for proper flow description can be challenging and time consuming. As such, the introduction of new parameters in describing additional reservoir conditions associated with drilling muds would only increase the complexity of the computational process. Therefore, the predictive capability of applied rheological models for the different flow regimes and reservoir conditions associated with drilling muds is still limited in scope. Existing procedure using generic rheological models would give a generalized approach to computing the performance of drilling muds when taking into account new factors such as temperature and electrolyte effects. Therefore, there is need to accurately model the rheology of drilling muds taking into account new conditions without necessarily introducing new fitting parameters to a particular model. In this work, a novel approach was employed where the time constant of the modified Vipulanandan model was related to reservoir conditions without introducing a new fitting constants or parameters. The selection of the Vipulanandan model among others was based on the conditions stated by Vipulanandan and Mohammed (2014) and the use of statistical validation tools based on best fit. Moreover, the Vipulanandan model represents the only model which can be modified to have a time constant in it

Screening of yeasts obtained from different fermented foods for their ability to produce pectinase

In the present study, Citrus pectin was used for the production of pectinase enzyme by yeast isolates using submerged fermentation. Fifty yeasts were isolated from different fermented foods and screened for their producing ability. Candida sp. OG2 and Candida tropicalis strain AUMC 10275 were the yeast isolates with the best potential of pectinase production. Fermentation parameters such as incubation period, pH, temperature, carbon and nitrogen source were optimized under submerged fermentation. The optimal conditions for pectinase production were found to be incubation time 48 hours, pH 6.0 and temperature 40°C. Citrus pectin best induced the production of pectinase while yeast extract/peptone (1:1) was the best source of nitrogen. Pectinase produced by Candida tropicalis strain AUMC 10275 was purified at 4.00 folds with a specific activity of 63.99 U/ml. The yeasts obtained from fermented foods have the ability to produce pectinase enzyme under optimized conditions and can be used for industrial purposes. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.382864