Statistics of Lead Changes in Popularity-Driven Systems

We study statistical properties of the highest degree, or most popular, nodes in growing networks. We show that the number of lead changes increases logarithmically with network size N, independent of the details of the growth mechanism. The probability that the first node retains the lead approaches a finite constant for popularity-driven growth, and decays as N^{-phi}(ln N)^{-1/2}, with phi=0.08607..., for growth with no popularity bias.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, 2 column revtex format. Minor changes in response to referee comments. For publication in PR

The simulation of action disorganisation in complex activities of daily living

Action selection in everyday goal-directed tasks of moderate complexity is known to be subject to breakdown following extensive frontal brain injury. A model of action selection in such tasks is presented and used to explore three hypotheses concerning the origins of action disorganisation: that it is a consequence of reduced top-down excitation within a hierarchical action schema network coupled with increased bottom-up triggering of schemas from environmental sources, that it is a more general disturbance of schema activation modelled by excessive noise in the schema network, and that it results from a general disturbance of the triggering of schemas by object representations. Results suggest that the action disorganisation syndrome is best accounted for by a general disturbance to schema activation, while altering the balance between top-down and bottom-up activation provides an account of a related disorder - utilisation behaviour. It is further suggested that ideational apraxia (which may result from lesions to left temporoparietal areas and which has similar behavioural consequences to action disorganisation syndrome on tasks of moderate complexity) is a consequence of a generalised disturbance of the triggering of schemas by object representations. Several predictions regarding differences between action disorganisation syndrome and ideational apraxia that follow from this interpretation are detailed

Parent and child agreement for acute stress disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder and other psychopathology in a prospective study of children and adolescents exposed to single-event trauma

Examining parent-child agreement for Acute Stress Disorder (ASD) and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) in children and adolescents is essential for informing the assessment of trauma-exposed children, yet no studies have examined this relationship using appropriate statistical techniques. Parent-child agreement for these disorders was examined by structured interview in a prospective study of assault and motor vehicle accident (MVA) child survivors, assessed at 2-4 weeks and 6 months post-trauma. Children were significantly more likely to meet criteria for ASD, as well as other ASD and PTSD symptom clusters, based on their own report than on their parent's report. Parent-child agreement for ASD was poor (Cohen's κ = -.04), but fair for PTSD (Cohen's κ = .21). Agreement ranged widely for other emotional disorders (Cohen's κ = -.07-.64), with generalised anxiety disorder found to have superior parent-child agreement (when assessed by phi coefficients) relative to ASD and PTSD. The findings support the need to directly interview children and adolescents, particularly for the early screening of posttraumatic stress, and suggest that other anxiety disorders may have a clearer presentation post-trauma

Power Law Distribution of Wealth in a Money-Based Model

A money-based model for the power law distribution (PLD) of wealth in an economically interacting population is introduced. The basic feature of our model is concentrating on the capital movements and avoiding the complexity of micro behaviors of individuals. It is proposed as an extension of the Equiluz and Zimmermann's (EZ) model for crowding and information transmission in financial markets. Still, we must emphasize that in EZ model the PLD without exponential correction is obtained only for a particular parameter, while our pattern will give it within a wide range. The Zipf exponent depends on the parameters in a nontrivial way and is exactly calculated in this paper.Comment: 5 pages and 4 figure

Critical and Near-Critical Branching Processes

Scale-free dynamics in physical and biological systems can arise from a variety of causes. Here, we explore a branching process which leads to such dynamics. We find conditions for the appearance of power laws and study quantitatively what happens to these power laws when such conditions are violated. From a branching process model, we predict the behavior of two systems which seem to exhibit near scale-free behavior--rank-frequency distributions of number of subtaxa in biology, and abundance distributions of genotypes in an artificial life system. In the light of these, we discuss distributions of avalanche sizes in the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model.Comment: 9 pages LaTex with 10 PS figures. v.1 of this paper contains results from non-critical sandpile simulations that were excised from the published versio

Rank Statistics in Biological Evolution

We present a statistical analysis of biological evolution processes. Specifically, we study the stochastic replication-mutation-death model where the population of a species may grow or shrink by birth or death, respectively, and additionally, mutations lead to the creation of new species. We rank the various species by the chronological order by which they originate. The average population N_k of the kth species decays algebraically with rank, N_k ~ M^{mu} k^{-mu}, where M is the average total population. The characteristic exponent mu=(alpha-gamma)/(alpha+beta-gamma)$ depends on alpha, beta, and gamma, the replication, mutation, and death rates. Furthermore, the average population P_k of all descendants of the kth species has a universal algebraic behavior, P_k ~ M/k.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Modeling the scaling properties of human mobility

While the fat tailed jump size and the waiting time distributions characterizing individual human trajectories strongly suggest the relevance of the continuous time random walk (CTRW) models of human mobility, no one seriously believes that human traces are truly random. Given the importance of human mobility, from epidemic modeling to traffic prediction and urban planning, we need quantitative models that can account for the statistical characteristics of individual human trajectories. Here we use empirical data on human mobility, captured by mobile phone traces, to show that the predictions of the CTRW models are in systematic conflict with the empirical results. We introduce two principles that govern human trajectories, allowing us to build a statistically self-consistent microscopic model for individual human mobility. The model not only accounts for the empirically observed scaling laws but also allows us to analytically predict most of the pertinent scaling exponents

Safe and sustainable management of legume pests and diseases in Thailand and Vietnam: a situational analysis

Vegetable legumes are important crops in tropical agriculture, but they are susceptible to a substantial number of arthropod pests and diseases. Using farm-level survey data for 240 farm households growing yard-long bean (Vigna unguiculata subsp. sesquipedalis) in Thailand and Vietnam, this study shows that the farmers' main problem is the legume pod borer (Maruca vitrata). Farmers rely exclusively on the use of synthetic pesticides to manage this pest, and no other control methods are generally applied. Small cultivated areas for growing yard-long bean (particularly in Vietnam), a high level of satisfaction with the use of pesticides and a lack of market demand for pesticide-free produce are formidable challenges to the introduction of integrated pest management (IPM). It is important to ensure that IPM methods, if adopted, do not reduce profits and that farmers are allowed to experiment with these methods while raising awareness in the general population about the risk resulting from pesticide exposure

Transition probabilities for general birth-death processes with applications in ecology, genetics, and evolution

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with $n$ current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate $\lambda_n$ and a particle dies with instantaneous rate $\mu_n$. Currently no robust and efficient method exists to evaluate the finite-time transition probabilities in a general birth-death process with arbitrary birth and death rates. In this paper, we first revisit the theory of continued fractions to obtain expressions for the Laplace transforms of these transition probabilities and make explicit an important derivation connecting transition probabilities and continued fractions. We then develop an efficient algorithm for computing these probabilities that analyzes the error associated with approximations in the method. We demonstrate that this error-controlled method agrees with known solutions and outperforms previous approaches to computing these probabilities. Finally, we apply our novel method to several important problems in ecology, evolution, and genetics

A phase I study in paediatric patients to evaluate the safety and pharmacokinetics of SPI-77, a liposome encapsulated formulation of cisplatin

Pre-clinical studies indicate that cisplatin encapsulated in STEALTH®liposomes (SPI-77) retains anti-tumour activity, but has a much reduced toxicity, compared to native cisplatin. A phase I study was conducted to determine the toxicity and pharmacokinetics of SPI-77 administered to children with advanced cancer not amenable to other treatment. Paediatric patients were treated at doses ranging from 40 to 320 mg m−2by intravenous infusion every 4 weeks. Blood samples taken during, and up to 3 weeks after, administration and plasma and ultrafiltrate were prepared immediately. Urine was collected, when possible, for 3 days after administration. SPI-77 administration was well tolerated with the major toxicity being an infusion reaction which responded to modification of the initial infusion rate of SPI-77. Limited haematological toxicity and no nephrotoxicity were observed. No responses to treatment were seen during the course of this phase I study. Measurement of total plasma platinum showed that cisplatin was retained in the circulation with a half life of up to 134 h, with maximum plasma concentrations approximately 100-fold higher than those reported following comparable doses of cisplatin. Comparison of plasma and whole blood indicated that cisplatin was retained in the liposomes and there was no free platinum measurable in the ultrafiltrate. Urine recovery was less than 4% of the dose administered over 72 h. Results from this phase I study indicate that high doses of liposomal cisplatin can safely be given to patients, but further studies are required to address the issue of reformulation of liposomally bound cisplatin. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co