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Using internet search data to predict new HIV diagnoses in China: a modelling study.
ObjectivesInternet data are important sources of abundant information regarding HIV epidemics and risk factors. A number of case studies found an association between internet searches and outbreaks of infectious diseases, including HIV. In this research, we examined the feasibility of using search query data to predict the number of new HIV diagnoses in China.DesignWe identified a set of search queries that are associated with new HIV diagnoses in China. We developed statistical models (negative binomial generalised linear model and its Bayesian variants) to estimate the number of new HIV diagnoses by using data of search queries (Baidu) and official statistics (for the entire country and for Guangdong province) for 7 years (2010 to 2016).ResultsSearch query data were positively associated with the number of new HIV diagnoses in China and in Guangdong province. Experiments demonstrated that incorporating search query data could improve the prediction performance in nowcasting and forecasting tasks.ConclusionsBaidu data can be used to predict the number of new HIV diagnoses in China up to the province level. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using search query data to predict new HIV diagnoses. Results could potentially facilitate timely evidence-based decision making and complement conventional programmes for HIV prevention
RNA sequencing reveals distinct mechanisms underlying BET inhibitor JQ1-mediated modulation of the LPS-induced activation of BV-2 microglial cells
AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH TO THE THIRD BODY MODELLING IN FRETTING WEAR CONTACT: A MINIREVIEW
In fretting wear contact, the third body is defined as the wear debris bed between two contacting bodies. The problem of third-body modelling is considered from a point of view of contact mechanics. This paper is restricted to a discussion of recent developments in analytical modelling of fretting wear contact
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