DISCUSSION: ANALYSING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED TRADE: MODELLER'S PERSPECTIVE

International Relations/Trade,

TRANSITION OF AGRICULTURAL LAND OWNERSHIP AND USE

A natural propensity was found which indicates that most agricultural producers believe their land will be operated by one or more of their children when they retire. But results also indicate that producers will be responsive to selling their land for development if urban housing offers a higher return.Land Economics/Use,

EFFECTS OF EEP ON CANADIAN/UNITED STATES WHEAT TRADE

Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,

LIVE HOG AND PORK IMPORTS: PAST AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES FOR THE U.S. PORK SECTOR

The U.S. pork sector is modeled to simulate the effects of alternative import levels on prices, production, consumption, farm receipts, and consumer expenditures. Over the 1983-1985 period, producers annually received $600 million less due to increasing imports than if imports had remained at the 1979-1982 average. Farm prices and slaughter were lower by$2.21 per hundredweight and .1 million head annually, respectively. Four simulations reflecting alternative import paths over the period 1986-1992 were examined. With lower imports (relative to current levels), production and farm prices rise significantly in the long run; consumers purchase less and pay more.International Relations/Trade,

A Stochastic Analysis of Proposals for the New US Farm Bill

Most of the large scale modeling systems used in the analysis of agricultural policies produce deterministic projections. In reality, however, the agricultural sector is subject to a high degree of uncertainty as a result of fluctuations in exogenous factors such as the weather or macroeconomic variation. A stochastic approach can provide additional information to policy makers regarding the implications of this uncertainty, through the use of stochastically generated projections. This paper also shows how deterministic analysis may result in systematic errors in the projection of some variables. As an applied example, the FAPRI model of the US agricultural sector is simulated stochastically to analyse the impact of proposals for the new US farm bill.Stochastic simulation, US Farm Bill, policy analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy,

AN EVALUATION OF THE 1981 FARM PROGRAM FOR CROPS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE 1985 FARM BILL

Agricultural and Food Policy,

Young Stellar Objects in the Gould Belt

We present the full catalog of Young Stellar Objects (YSOs) identified in the 18 molecular clouds surveyed by the Spitzer Space Telescope "cores to disks" (c2d) and "Gould Belt" (GB) Legacy surveys. Using standard techniques developed by the c2d project, we identify 3239 candidate YSOs in the 18 clouds, 2966 of which survive visual inspection and form our final catalog of YSOs in the Gould Belt. We compile extinction corrected SEDs for all 2966 YSOs and calculate and tabulate the infrared spectral index, bolometric luminosity, and bolometric temperature for each object. We find that 326 (11%), 210 (7%), 1248 (42%), and 1182 (40%) are classified as Class 0+I, Flat-spectrum, Class II, and Class III, respectively, and show that the Class III sample suffers from an overall contamination rate by background AGB stars between 25% and 90%. Adopting standard assumptions, we derive durations of 0.40-0.78 Myr for Class 0+I YSOs and 0.26-0.50 Myr for Flat-spectrum YSOs, where the ranges encompass uncertainties in the adopted assumptions. Including information from (sub)millimeter wavelengths, one-third of the Class 0+I sample is classified as Class 0, leading to durations of 0.13-0.26 Myr (Class 0) and 0.27-0.52 Myr (Class I). We revisit infrared color-color diagrams used in the literature to classify YSOs and propose minor revisions to classification boundaries in these diagrams. Finally, we show that the bolometric temperature is a poor discriminator between Class II and Class III YSOs.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJS. 29 pages, 11 figures, 14 tables, 4 appendices. Full versions of data tables (to be published in machine-readable format by ApJS) available at the end of the latex source cod

FAPRI 2002 World Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,