LIVE HOG AND PORK IMPORTS: PAST AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES FOR THE U.S. PORK SECTOR

Abstract

The U.S. pork sector is modeled to simulate the effects of alternative import levels on prices, production, consumption, farm receipts, and consumer expenditures. Over the 1983-1985 period, producers annually received $600 million less due to increasing imports than if imports had remained at the 1979-1982 average. Farm prices and slaughter were lower by$2.21 per hundredweight and .1 million head annually, respectively. Four simulations reflecting alternative import paths over the period 1986-1992 were examined. With lower imports (relative to current levels), production and farm prices rise significantly in the long run; consumers purchase less and pay more.International Relations/Trade,