A Tale of Two Countries: Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Rice Productivity in China and Brazil

This paper looks at differences in spatial and temporal variation of rice yields in China and Brazil. We find that rice yields in China have converged over time and that rice production has become more and more homogeneous. In contrast, rice yields in Brazil have diverged over time, primarily due to variations in upland rice yields. Three hypotheses are put forward to explain the different behaviour of rice yields in Brazil and China: (i) differences in production systems (i.e., irrigated in China versus upland in Brazil); (ii) changes in rainfall patterns and (iii) bias in agricultural R&D favouring irrigated rice. Our empirical analysis provides support to the first two hypotheses by establishing that upland rice is subjected to much greater variation in yields than irrigated rice and that changing rainfall patterns affect mostly upland rice. We also provide evidence of the bias towards irrigated systems by looking at the patterns of varietal release.rice productivity, spatial convergence, technology spillover, China, Brazil

A tale of two countries: Spatial and temporal patterns of rice productivity in China and Brazil

"This paper examines differences in the spatial and temporal variations of rice yields in China and Brazil. Our analysis indicates that, in China, rice yields have converged over time and rice production has become increasingly homogeneous. In contrast, rice yields in Brazil have diverged over time, primarily due to variations in upland rice yields. Three hypothetical explanations may account for the different behaviors of rice yields in Brazil and China, namely: 1) differences in production systems (i.e. irrigated in China vs. upland in Brazil); 2) changes in rainfall patterns; and 3) bias in agricultural research and development (R&D) towards irrigated rice. Our empirical analysis supports the first two hypotheses by establishing that: 1) upland rice shows much more variation in yields compared to irrigated rice; and 2) changing rainfall patterns have primarily affected upland rice. We also provide evidence of the bias towards irrigated systems by looking at the patterns of varietal release." from Author's AbstractRice productivity, Spatial convergence, Technology spillover, Agricultural research, Research and development,

Assessing the spatial distribution of crop production using a generalized cross-entropy approach:

While agricultural production statistics are reported on a geopolitical – often national - basis we often need to know the status of production or productivity within specific sub-regions, watersheds, or agro-ecological zones. Such re-aggregations are typically made using expert judgments or simple area-weighting rules. We describe a new, entropy-based approach to making spatially disaggregated assessments of the distribution of crop production. Using this approach tabular crop production statistics are blended judiciously with an array of other secondary data to assess the production of specific crops within individual ‘pixels' – typically 25 to 100 square kilometers in size. The information utilized includes crop production statistics, farming system characteristics, satellite-derived land cover data, biophysical crop suitability assessments, and population density. An application is presented in which Brazilian state level production statistics are used to generate pixel level crop production data for eight crops. To validate the spatial allocation we aggregated the pixel estimates to obtain synthetic estimates of municipio level production in Brazil, and compared those estimates with actual municipio statistics. The approach produced extremely promising results. We then examined the robustness of these results compared to short-cut approaches to spatializing crop production statistics and showed that, while computationally intensive, the cross-entropy method does provide more reliable estimates of crop production patterns.Entropy, Cross entropy, Remote sensing, Spatial allocation, Crop distribution,

Benefit-cost analysis of Uganda's clonal coffee replanting program: An ex-ante analysis

"The Ugandan coffee industry is facing some serious challenges, including low international prices in the international coffee market, aging coffee trees and declining productivity, and, more recently, the appearance of coffee-wilt disease, which have all contributed to the decline in both the quantity and value of coffee exports. The government of Uganda, through the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), in 1993/94 started a coffee-replanting program to both replace coffee trees that were old or affected by coffee-wilt and expand coffee production into other suitable areas in northern and eastern Uganda. This program seems to be helping to both combat the industry's problems and reverse the declining trends. However, the UCDA announced in 2004 that it was withdrawing from the replanting program in the 2004/05 season (it had supported nursery operators and purchased and distributed free seedlings to farmers), so the program's achievements may not last. This paper estimates the economic returns (benefit–cost ratio) of the coffee-replanting program, particularly replanting with clonal varieties, and analyzes the welfare implications of the decision to withdraw. We find that the internal rate of return (IRR) and benefit–cost ratio are very high, about 50 percent and 3.7 respectively, suggesting that the replanting program in Uganda is very beneficial to the livelihoods of coffee farmers, the coffee sub-sector, and the economy as a whole. The largest benefits occur in the central region, where the bulk of coffee is grown, followed by the eastern and western regions. The largest return on investment occurs in the eastern region, followed by the central and western regions. Sensitivity analyses show that the results (that is, the net benefits) are robust with respect to the assumptions made, including demand and supply elasticities and level of domestic consumption. Although the results are sensitive to farm production costs and coffee yields, the program still improves welfare. Taken all together, the results suggest that if the government withdraws from the replanting program without putting place adequate alternative measures to ensure the program's sustainability, welfare will be severely reduced in coffee-growing areas." from Authors' AbstractClonal coffee, Benefit-cost analysis, IRR, DREAM, Agricultural research,

Spatial analysis of sustainable livelihood enterprises of Uganda cotton production:

"Because the conditions for agricultural development vary considerably across space, we need to develop methods that allow us to take such variability into account when evaluating development strategies for particular crops or farming systems. This paper addresses spatially varying characteristics in an evaluation of the potential economic benefits of three cotton development strategies for Uganda: area expansion, productivity improvement, and domestic consumption increase. We begin with a historical review of cotton production in Uganda. We then described the major challenges and opportunities for Ugandan cotton production, including farm-level production constraints. Household-level production data from the 2000 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) are used to estimate the current spatial distribution of cotton production (called the cotton production area, or CPA), based on the association of household cotton production with ranges in mapped variables (altitude, length of growing period, and population density), district cotton production statistics and expert knowledge of local production patterns. Cotton development domains (CDDs) are then defined by agroclimatic suitability, market/ginnery access, and inclusion in the CPA. We use the UNHS data to evaluate the importance of cotton as a livelihood enterprise and its role in rural livelihood strategies. Key ecosystems and protected areas are considered in conjunction with the CDDs in defining feasible areas for expansion of production. Finally, the Dynamic Research Evaluation for Management (DREAM) model is used to estimate benefits that accrue from the three development strategies considered." Authors' AbstractDREAM, Spatial analysis (Statistics),

Alternative growth scenarios for Ugandan coffee to 2020:

Coffee is the most important export crop in Uganda and an important source of income among smallholder farmers in large parts of the country. The Robusta type dominates coffee production and Ugandan Robusta is demanded by roasters as a component in certain blends due to its special taste qualities. However, a combination of events outside and within Uganda, especially the collapse of world coffee prices in the late 1990s, are eroding farmer incomes and export revenues and threaten the long-term viability of the industry. In this context, the paper first investigates the challenges faced by the Ugandan coffee industry, namely the decline in the world coffee market, changes in procurement strategies among coffee importers, the rapidly expanding market for high quality and specialty coffees, and the spread of the coffee wilt disease and other farm-level productivity constraints. This leads us to examine possible development strategies for Ugandan coffee production: area expansion, quality improvement, and productivity increase. Using IFPRI's Dynamic Research Evaluation for Management (DREAM) model, different scenarios for each of these strategies are evaluated to show their potential impacts on Ugandan export prices, export revenues, and producer benefits. The simulation results show that Uganda would benefit relatively more by enhancing farm productivity and improving coffee quality. The economic benefits of increasing production through area expansion, on the other hand, would be significantly eroded by the negative effects on export prices, especially if other countries followed suit and accelerated their own growth in coffee production. These analyses focus on the potential benefits of alternate changes in Ugandan coffee production, while devoting less attention to how and at what costs such changes may be effected. Finally, it is suggested that because the world coffee market is so important to the Ugandan economy, and being the third biggest Robusta producer in the world, Uganda has a high stake and important role to play in international coordination efforts to raise and stabilize world coffee prices.Coffee industry Uganda, Commodity markets, exports, production possibilities, Prices,

Exploring strategic priorities for regional agricultural R&D investments in East and Central Africa:

"Agriculture plays a dominant role in nearly all the countries of East and Central Africa, and many face similar agroecological, climatic, and development challenges. As a result, significant scale economies can be made through the regionalization of research and development (R&D) using networks such as the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa. The challenge for such networks, however, is to determine both regional and national research priorities with the highest potential rates of economic return. Methodology to assess regional research priorities is a critical input into this process, particularly when it comes to weighing likely complementarities among individual research programs, thus maximizing impact across countries at the regional level. This paper presents such an approach using spatial analysis and the Dynamic Research Evaluation for Management (Dream) modeling software, which was developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess potential economic returns to agricultural R&D and guide resource allocation decisions. Dream is applied to the East and Central African region to estimate potential economic and technological spillovers from country- and regional-level R&D investments for select commodities based on future projections of supply and demand, trade flows between countries and world markets, and shared agroecologies and farming systems. The results of the study indicate significant potential for agricultural technology spillovers within the region. Countries will therefore reap greater economic benefits in their search for technology solutions if they pool their resources and pursue regional initiatives for the common good." from Author's AbstractDREAM, Technology spillovers, Priority setting, Economic surplus, Agricultural research,

Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa: a spatial equilibrium model analysis

"In this paper, the authors analyze the potential economic impacts of avian influenza (AI) in West Africa, taking Nigeria as an example. They find that, depending on the size of the affected areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major migratory bird flyways would be the loss of about 4 percent of national chicken production. However, the indirect effect—consumers' reluctance to consume poultry if AI is detected, causing a decline in chicken prices—is generally larger than the direct effect. The study estimates that Nigerian chicken production would fall by 21 percent and chicken farmers would lose US$250 million of revenue if the worst-case scenario occurred. The negative impact of AI would be unevenly distributed in the country, and some states and districts would be seriously hurt. This study is based on a spatial equilibrium model that makes use of the most recent spatial distribution data sets for poultry and human populations in West Africa. The study shows that, while most of the attention has focused on preventing global influenza pandemic, preventive measures are also needed at the national, subnational, and local levels, because AI could potentially have a huge negative impact on the poultry industry and the livelihood of smallholder farmers in many regions in West Africa.." Authors' AbstractComputable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, Small farmers, Spatial analysis (Statistics),

World Food Price Bubble and China’s Food Security

The price of nearly every agricultural commodity sharply increased in 2008, creating a global food price bubble. At their peaks in the second quarter of 2008, world prices of wheat and maize were three times higher than at the beginning of 2003, and the price of rice was five times higher (Figure 1-3). The surge in food prices has become a major political concern because of its role for inflation, its impacts on the whole economy, and because of adverse effects on the wage earning poor and middle class. The price developments can help reduce urban – rural income gaps in the aggregate, but some groups in rural areas lose and others gain. The issue is not only one of too fast increases in prices, but one of risky volatility and of inappropriate policy responses around the world posing threats for free trade and possibly for political stability in some countries. In China, Consumer Price Index (CPI) kept increasing in 2008. CPI increased 8.5% in April 2008, a monthly record in 12 years. The increases from food, vegetable, livestock prices are the main reasons behind the CPI increase

Spatial Patterns of Crop Yields in Latin America and the Caribbean

Because of the apparent slowdown in the growth of crop yield potential, the increasing share of farmers already using modern crop varieties, and the accelerating flow of knowledge on agricultural technology, one would expect to find gradual convergence inLatin america, crop yield, convergence, spillover, weather variability