A combination of routine laboratory findings and vital signs can predict survival of advanced cancer patients without physician evaluation: a fractional polynomial model

IntroductionThere have been no reports about predicting survival of patients with advanced cancer constructed entirely with objective variables. We aimed to develop a prognostic model based on laboratory findings and vital signs using a fractional polynomial (FP) model.MethodsA multicentre prospective cohort study was conducted at 58 specialist palliative care services in Japan from September 2012 to April 2014. Eligible patients were older than 20 years and had advanced cancer. We developed models for predicting 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, 56-day and 90-day survival by using the FP modelling method.ResultsData from 1039 patients were analysed to develop each prognostic model (Objective Prognostic Index for advanced cancer [OPI-AC]). All models included the heart rate, urea and albumin, while some models included the respiratory rate, creatinine, C-reactive protein, lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, total bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase and platelet/lymphocyte ratio. The area under the curve was 0.77, 0.81, 0.90, 0.90 and 0.92 for the 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, 56-day and 90-day model, respectively. The accuracy of the OPI-AC predicting 30-day, 56-day and 90-day survival was significantly higher than that of the Palliative Prognostic Score or the Prognosis in Palliative Care Study model, which are based on a combination of symptoms and physician estimation.ConclusionWe developed highly accurate prognostic indexes for predicting the survival of patients with advanced cancer from objective variables alone, which may be useful for end-of-life management. The FP modelling method could be promising for developing other prognostic models in future research

Three-year progression-free survival of a patient with concomitant mucinous adenocarcinoma of the colon with peritoneal dissemination and multiple myeloma who received lenalidomide: a case report

Abstract Background Concomitant multiple myeloma (MM) and other primary malignancies is rare. Therefore, the treatment outcomes of patients with these conditions have not been well discussed. Lenalidomide is an oral thalidomide analog drug used for MM. Recently, the antitumor effect of lenalidomide has been gaining attention, and lenalidomide has been applied for managing solid tumors. The current case showed the treatment course of a patient treated with lenalidomide for concomitant MM and colon cancer with peritoneal dissemination. Case presentation A 74-year-old female patient receiving treatment for MM was diagnosed with mucinous adenocarcinoma of the transverse colon. The patient was clinically diagnosed with stage IIIC T4aN2M0 disease. Subsequently, laparoscopic colectomy with lymph node dissection was planned. However, intraperitoneal observation revealed peritoneal dissemination that had sporadically and widely spread. Therefore, palliative partial colectomy was performed to prevent future hemorrhage or obstruction. The patient was discharged on the 10th postoperative day without postoperative complication. Based on the patient’s preference, lenalidomide was continually administered for MM without systemic chemotherapy. The patient survived for > 36 months without any signs of tumor progression. Conclusion The current case first showed the treatment course of concomitant MM and colon cancer. The antitumor effect of lenalidomide can possibly contribute to 3-year progression-free survival in patients with mucinous adenocarcinoma of the colon with peritoneal dissemination