Expect the Unexpected: Deciphering Exoplanetary Signals with Machine Learning Techniques

The field of exoplanets has enjoyed unprecedented growth in the past decades, planets are being discovered at an exponential rate. With the launch of next-generation facilities in the coming decades, the arrival of high-quality spectroscopic data is expected to bring about yet another revolutionary change in our understanding of these remote worlds. The field has been actively developing tools to comprehend the large stream of incoming data, and among them, Machine Learning techniques are building up momentum as an alternative to conventional approaches. In this work, I developed methodologies to uncover potential biases in the interpretation of the exoplanetary atmosphere introduced during data analysis. I showed that naively combining observations from different instruments might lead to biased results, and in some extreme cases like WASP-96 b, it is impossible to com- bine observations. A new scheme of retrieval framework, namely the L - retrieval, holds the potential to detect incompatibility among different datasets by combining light-curve fitting with atmospheric radiative transfer modelling. This work also documents the application of ML techniques to two distinct fields of exoplanetary science: a planet signal detection pipeline for direct imaging data and a suite of diagnostic tools designed for the characterisation of exoplanets. In both approaches, I pioneered the integration of Explainable AI techniques to improve the reliability of the deep learning models. Initial successes of these novel methodologies have provided an exciting prospect to tackle upcoming challenges with the use of Artificial Intelligence. How- ever, significant work remains to progress these models from their current proof-of- concept stage to general application framework. In this thesis, I will discuss their current limitations, potential future, and the next steps required

ESA-Ariel Data Challenge NeurIPS 2022: introduction to exo-atmospheric studies and presentation of the Atmospheric Big Challenge (ABC) Database

This is an exciting era for exo-planetary exploration. The recently launched JWST, and other upcoming space missions such as Ariel, Twinkle, and ELTs are set to bring fresh insights to the convoluted processes of planetary formation and evolution and its connections to atmospheric compositions. However, with new opportunities come new challenges. The field of exoplanet atmospheres is already struggling with the incoming volume and quality of data, and machine learning (ML) techniques lands itself as a promising alternative. Developing techniques of this kind is an inter-disciplinary task, one that requires domain knowledge of the field, access to relevant tools and expert insights on the capability and limitations of current ML models. These stringent requirements have so far limited the developments of ML in the field to a few isolated initiatives. In this paper, We present the Atmospheric Big Challenge Database (ABC Database), a carefully designed, organized, and publicly available data base dedicated to the study of the inverse problem in the context of exoplanetary studies. We have generated 105 887 forward models and 26 109 complementary posterior distributions generated with Nested Sampling algorithm. Alongside with the data base, this paper provides a jargon-free introduction to non-field experts interested to dive into the intricacy of atmospheric studies. This data base forms the basis for a multitude of research directions, including, but not limited to, developing rapid inference techniques, benchmarking model performance, and mitigating data drifts. A successful application of this data base is demonstrated in the NeurIPS Ariel ML Data Challenge 2022

To Sample or Not to Sample: Retrieving Exoplanetary Spectra with Variational Inference and Normalizing Flows

Current endeavours in exoplanet characterization rely on atmospheric retrieval to quantify crucial physical properties of remote exoplanets from observations. However, the scalability and efficiency of said technique are under strain with increasing spectroscopic resolution and forward model complexity. The situation has become more acute with the recent launch of the James Webb Space Telescope and other upcoming missions. Recent advances in machine learning provide optimization-based variational inference as an alternative approach to perform approximate Bayesian posterior inference. In this investigation we developed a normalizing-flow-based neural network, combined with our newly developed differentiable forward model, Diff-τ, to perform Bayesian inference in the context of atmospheric retrievals. Using examples from real and simulated spectroscopic data, we demonstrate the advantages of our proposed framework: (1) training our neural network does not require a large precomputed training set and can be trained with only a single observation; (2) it produces high-fidelity posterior distributions in excellent agreement with sampling-based retrievals; (3) it requires up to 75% fewer forward model calls to converge to the same result; and (4) this approach allows formal Bayesian model selection. We discuss the computational efficiencies of Diff-τ in relation to TauREx3's nominal forward model and provide a “lessons learned” account of developing radiative transfer models in differentiable languages. Our proposed framework contributes toward the latest development of neural network–powered atmospheric retrieval. Its flexibility and significant reduction in forward model calls required for convergence holds the potential to be an important addition to the retrieval tool box for large and complex data sets along with sampling-based approaches

Hubble WFC3 Spectroscopy of the Habitable-zone Super-Earth LHS 1140 b

Atmospheric characterisation of temperate, rocky planets is the holy grail of exoplanet studies. These worlds are at the limits of our capabilities with current instrumentation in transmission spectroscopy and challenge our state-of-the-art statistical techniques. Here we present the transmission spectrum of the temperate Super-Earth LHS 1140b using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) G141 grism data of this habitable zone (T$_{\rm{eq}}$ = 235 K) Super-Earth (R = 1.7 $R_\oplus$), shows tentative evidence of water. However, the signal-to-noise ratio, and thus the significance of the detection, is low and stellar contamination models can cause modulation over the spectral band probed. We attempt to correct for contamination using these models and find that, while many still lead to evidence for water, some could provide reasonable fits to the data without the need for molecular absorption although most of these cause also features in the visible ground-based data which are nonphysical. Future observations with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) would be capable of confirming, or refuting, this atmospheric detection.Comment: Accepted for publication in AJ on 30th October 202

ESA-Ariel Data Challenge NeurIPS 2022: Inferring Physical Properties of Exoplanets From Next-Generation Telescopes

The study of extra-solar planets, or simply, exoplanets, planets outside our own Solar System, is fundamentally a grand quest to understand our place in the Universe. Discoveries in the last two decades have re-defined our understanding of planets, and helped us comprehend the uniqueness of our very own Earth. In recent years the focus has shifted from planet detection to planet characterisation, where key planetary properties are inferred from telescope observations using Monte Carlo-based methods. However, the efficiency of sampling-based methodologies is put under strain by the high-resolution observational data from next generation telescopes, such as the James Webb Space Telescope and the Ariel Space Mission. We are delighted to announce the acceptance of the Ariel ML Data Challenge 2022 as part of the NeurIPS competition track. The goal of this challenge is to identify a reliable and scalable method to perform planetary characterisation. Depending on the chosen track, participants are tasked to provide either quartile estimates or the approximate distribution of key planetary properties. To this end, a synthetic spectroscopic dataset has been generated from the official simulators for the ESA Ariel Space Mission. The aims of the competition are three-fold. 1) To offer a challenging application for comparing and advancing conditional density estimation methods. 2) To provide a valuable contribution towards reliable and efficient analysis of spectroscopic data, enabling astronomers to build a better picture of planetary demographics, and 3) To promote the interaction between ML and exoplanetary science. The competition is open from 15th June and will run until early October, participants of all skill levels are more than welcomed

Exploring the Ability of Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 G141 to Uncover Trends in Populations of Exoplanet Atmospheres through a Homogeneous Transmission Survey of 70 Gaseous Planets

We present analysis of the atmospheres of 70 gaseous extrasolar planets via transit spectroscopy with Hubble’s Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3). For over half of these, we statistically detect spectral modulation that our retrievals attribute to molecular species. Among these, we use Bayesian hierarchical modeling to search for chemical trends with bulk parameters. We use the extracted water abundance to infer the atmospheric metallicity and compare it to the planet’s mass. We also run chemical equilibrium retrievals, fitting for the atmospheric metallicity directly. However, although previous studies have found evidence of a mass–metallicity trend, we find no such relation within our data. For the hotter planets within our sample, we find evidence for thermal dissociation of dihydrogen and water via the H− opacity. We suggest that the general lack of trends seen across this population study could be due to (i) the insufficient spectral coverage offered by the Hubble Space Telescope’s WFC3 G141 band, (ii) the lack of a simple trend across the whole population, (iii) the essentially random nature of the target selection for this study, or (iv) a combination of all the above. We set out how we can learn from this vast data set going forward in an attempt to ensure comparative planetology can be undertaken in the future with facilities such as the JWST, Twinkle, and Ariel. We conclude that a wider simultaneous spectral coverage is required as well as a more structured approach to target selection

Exploring the Ability of HST WFC3 G141 to Uncover Trends in Populations of Exoplanet Atmospheres Through a Homogeneous Transmission Survey of 70 Gaseous Planets

We present the analysis of the atmospheres of 70 gaseous extrasolar planets via transit spectroscopy with Hubble's Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3). For over half of these, we statistically detect spectral modulation which our retrievals attribute to molecular species. Among these, we use Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling to search for chemical trends with bulk parameters. We use the extracted water abundance to infer the atmospheric metallicity and compare it to the planet's mass. We also run chemical equilibrium retrievals, fitting for the atmospheric metallicity directly. However, although previous studies have found evidence of a mass-metallicity trend, we find no such relation within our data. For the hotter planets within our sample, we find evidence for thermal dissociation of dihydrogen and water via the H$^-$ opacity. We suggest that the general lack of trends seen across this population study could be due to i) the insufficient spectral coverage offered by HST WFC3 G141, ii) the lack of a simple trend across the whole population, iii) the essentially random nature of the target selection for this study or iv) a combination of all the above. We set out how we can learn from this vast dataset going forward in an attempt to ensure comparative planetology can be undertaken in the future with facilities such as JWST, Twinkle and Ariel. We conclude that a wider simultaneous spectral coverage is required as well as a more structured approach to target selection.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

Lessons learned from the 1st Ariel Machine Learning Challenge: Correcting transiting exoplanet light curves for stellar spots

The last decade has witnessed a rapid growth of the field of exoplanet discovery and characterisation. However, several big challenges remain, many of which could be addressed using machine learning methodology. For instance, the most prolific method for detecting exoplanets and inferring several of their characteristics, transit photometry, is very sensitive to the presence of stellar spots. The current practice in the literature is to identify the effects of spots visually and correct for them manually or discard the affected data. This paper explores a first step towards fully automating the efficient and precise derivation of transit depths from transit light curves in the presence of stellar spots. The primary focus of the paper is to present in detail a diverse arsenal of methods for doing so. The methods and results we present were obtained in the context of the 1st Machine Learning Challenge organized for the European Space Agency’s upcoming Ariel mission. We first present the problem, the simulated Ariel-like data and outline the Challenge while identifying best practices for organizing similar challenges in the future. Finally, we present the solutions obtained by the top-5 winning teams, provide their code and discuss their implications. Successful solutions either construct highly non-linear (w.r.t. the raw data) models with minimal preprocessing –deep neural networks and ensemble methods– or amount to obtaining meaningful statistics from the light curves, constructing linear models on which yields comparably good predictive performance