Removing border protection on wheat and rice: effects on rural income and food self-sufficiency in China

In this paper, I use the Monash Multi-Country model – a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of China, Australia and the Rest of the World – to analyse the effects of removing border protection on wheat and rice in China. The analysis points to the possibility that removing border protection on wheat and rice may lead to an increase in rural income in China. This is mainly due to the following two factors. First, removing border protection on wheat and rice not only leads to a contraction in agricultural activities, but also leads to an expansion in manufacturing and services activities. Second, on average, rural households in China obtain over half of their income from manufacturing and services activities.CGE modelling, China, rural income, wheat and rice, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty,

关于中澳自由贸易协议潜在优势的分析模型

1. 2002年，为了促进双边贸易和投资，中国和澳大利亚建立了一个经济贸易框架。在这个框架下，一项关于未来中澳自由贸易协定（FTA）的联合可行性研究已经出炉。2. 受澳大利亚外交贸易部委任，莫纳什大学的政策研究中心对关于中澳自由贸易协定所带来的潜在利益进行模型分析，并与来自中国社科院和南开大学的专家共同着手这项研究。3. 在这项研究中，我们从三个方面对自由贸易协定进行模拟：消除商品贸易中的边境保护主义、投资自由化以及消除服务贸易壁垒。分析框架为一个多国家、多部门的可计算的一般均衡模型，即“莫纳什的多国家模型”。在我们的模拟中，假设基于自由贸易协定下的政策调整是于2006年开始贯彻落实的。4. 在模拟FTA下政策调整所带来的冲击方面，我们首先模拟了一个常规发展模式（或称“基准模式”），基准模式描述了在中澳没有签订FTA情况下中国和澳大利亚经济的发展进程。与基准假设相比，其改变程度将被视为FTA下政策调整所带来的效应。译者单位：厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系（361005

关于中澳自由贸易协议潜在优势的分析模型——一份为中澳自由贸易协议可行性研究作准备的独立报告

1.2002年,为了促进双边贸易和投资,中国和澳大利亚建立了一个经济贸易框架。在这个框架下,一项关于未来中澳自由贸易协定(FTA)的联合可行性研究已经出炉。2.受澳大利亚外交贸易部委任,莫纳什大学的政策研究中心对关于中澳自由贸易协定所带来的潜在利益进行模型分析,并与来自中国社科院和南开大学的专家共同着手这项研究。3.在这项研究中,我们从三个方面对自由贸易协定进行模拟:消除商品贸易中的边境保护主义、投资自由化以及消除服务贸易壁垒。分析框架为一个多国家、多部门的可计算的一般均衡模型,即"莫纳什的多国家模型"。在我们的模拟中,假设基于自由贸易协定下的政策调整是于2006年开始贯彻落实的。4.在模拟FTA下政策调整所带来的冲击方面,我们首先模拟了一个常规发展模式(或称"基准模式"),基准模式描述了在中澳没有签订FTA情况下中国和澳大利亚经济的发展进程。与基准假设相比,其改变程度将被视为FTA下政策调整所带来的效应。5.从模型中,我们可以得出这样的结论:FTA使得中澳两国的产出增加并使得福利提高。据估计,FTA将提高中澳两国2006年至2015年期间的实际国内生产总值(GDP)和实际国民生产总值(GNP)的现值(见42页图表7.1),数值如下:澳大利亚实际GDP:180亿美元中国实际GDP:640亿美元澳大利亚实际GNP:220亿美元中国实际GNP:520亿美元6.从2005年至2015年期间的年均增长率方面来讲,FTA估计将使澳大利亚的实际GDP年均增长0.039个百分点,使中国的实际GDP年均增长0.042个百分点。7.两国实际GDP的增长主要归功于不断增加的资本、不断提高的生产率水平和得到优化利用的资源。澳大利亚实际GDP增长的一个潜在的重要因素就是贸易条件的改善。8.通过不断增长的双边贸易和投资,FTA强化了中澳双方的经济合作伙伴关系;就整体而言,它也在世界范围内创造了贸易:由于中澳FTA的签订,世界进口量相较于基线水平也相应增长。9.为了更好地利用资源,两国实现了各部门之间的劳动力调整,这主要是为了消除商品贸易边境保护主义。然而,由于两国之间的互补性,部门间的这种劳动力再分配还是更倾向于促进两国间已发生的自然调整进程。而且,与中澳两国在还没有自由贸易协定时的全球化中已发生的合作相比,这种调整只能属于小规模范畴的调整。10.澳大利亚从自由贸易协定获利最大的产业有谷物、羊毛织品、绒线、矿物和有色金属。中国获利最大的产业则是制造业,特别是纺织品、服装和其它杂项制成品(如玩具和体育用品等);而两国的服务部门则都能从FTA中获益。11.如果2006年至2010年期间,政策调整能够逐步实施,则至2015年FTA所带来的长期效应将和在2006年完全贯彻执行FTA的效果没有区别。然而,越早实施FTA将会使两国更早获益,而相比较而言,如果采取不急不愠的措施,那么其导致实际GDP和实际GNP获益的现值将减少

Labour Market Reform, Rural Migration and Income Inequality in China -A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis Labour Market Reform, Rural Migration and Income Inequality in China --A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract: Using a dynamic CGE model this paper explores the effects of reform of the household registration (hukou) system in China on economic growth and rural -urban income equality over the period 2010 to 2020. It addresses the specific questions whether reform of the household registration system together with the removal of other institutional barriers to rural labour mobility can accelerate rural labour mobility, and whether the enhanced labour mobility can improve the efficiency of the allocation of labour with the result of increasing labour productivity and reducing rural-urban income inequality

Effects of Reducing Tariffs and Endogenous Productivity Growth

In this study, the effects of China’s WTO commitments of reducing tariff and nontariff barriers are analysed using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of China. In particular, this study draws the attention of policy makers to a different regional employment outcome when trade-liberalisation induced productivity improvements are taken into account. Trade-liberalisation induced productivity improvements occur when local producers survive import competition by seeking (most likely importing) input-saving technologies and production practice. Such endogenous productivity improvements, based on empirical estimates, are endogenously represented in the model

Removing border protection on wheat and rice: effects on rural income and food self-sufficiency in China

In this paper, I use the Monash Multi-Country model – a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of China, Australia and the Rest of the World – to analyse the effects of removing border protection on wheat and rice in China. The analysis points to the possibility that removing border protection on wheat and rice may lead to an increase in rural income in China. This is mainly due to the following two factors. First, removing border protection on wheat and rice not only leads to a contraction in agricultural activities, but also leads to an expansion in manufacturing and services activities. Second, on average, rural households in China obtain over half of their income from manufacturing and services activities

The Monash-Multi-Country (MMC) Model and the Investment Liberalisation in China's Oil Industry

Computable general equilibrium models have been widely applied in analysing the effects of removing tariffs. However, not nearly as much effort has been devoted to their application on investment liberalisation that is increasingly an integral part of trade liberalisation agreements. The Monash-Multi-Country (MMC) model is developed to meet such policy needs. The MMC model is an advanced dynamic CGE model with bilateral investment flows between countries/regions modelled explicitly at an industry level. This paper describes the model structure and data of the MMC model. Its application is illustrated by a simulation of a potential investment liberalisation in China’s oil industry. The MMC model has been used to analyse the effects of a bilateral free trade agreement between Australia and China

The MONASH-Multi-Country (MMC) Model and the Investment Liberalisation in China's Oil Industry

Computable general equilibrium models have been widely applied in analysing the effects of removing tariffs. However, not nearly as much effort has been devoted to their application on investment liberalisation that is increasingly an integral part of trade liberalisation agreements. The Monash-Multi-Country (MMC) model is developed to meet such policy needs. The MMC model is an advanced dynamic CGE model with bilateral investment flows between countries/regions modelled explicitly at an industry level. This paper describes the model structure and data of the MMC model. Its application is illustrated by a simulation of a potential investment liberalisation in China's oil industry.China, oil industry, investment liberalisation, CGE modelling