The El Niño – La Niña cycle and recent trends in supply and demand of net primary productivity in African drylands

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2016. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climatic Change 138 (2016): 111-125, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1730-1.Inter-annual climatic variability over a large portion of sub-Saharan Africa is under the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Extreme variability in climate is a threat to rural livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, yet the role of ENSO in the balance between supply and demand of net primary productivity (NPP) over this region is unclear. Here, we analyze the impact of ENSO on this balance in a spatially explicit framework using gridded population data from the WorldPop project, satellite-derived data on NPP supply, and statistical data from the United Nations. Our analyses demonstrate that between 2000 and 2013 fluctuations in the supply of NPP associated with moderate ENSO events average ±2.8 g C m-2 yr-1 across sub-Saharan drylands. The greatest sensitivity is in arid Southern Africa where a +1oC change in the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature index is associated with a mean change in NPP supply of -6.6 g C m-2 yr-1. Concurrently, the population-driven trend in NPP demand averages 3.5 g C m-2 yr-1 over the entire region with densely populated urban areas exhibiting the highest mean demand for NPP. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for the role ENSO plays in modulating the balance between supply and demand of NPP in sub-Saharan drylands. An important implication of these findings is that increase in NPP demand for socio-economic metabolism must be taken into account within the context of climate-modulated supplyFunding for this project was provided by the Swedish National Space Board (contract no. 100/11 to J.A.). A.M.A. received support from the Royal Physiographic Society in Lund and the Lund University Center for Studies of Carbon Cycle and Climate Interactions (LUCCI). C.C.U. was supported by NSF grant OCE-1203892.2017-07-0

Towards a bridging concept for undesirable resilience in social-ecological systems

Resilience is a cross-disciplinary concept that is relevant for understanding the sustainability of the social and environmental conditions in which we live. Most research normatively focuses on building or strengthening resilience, despite growing recognition of the importance of breaking the resilience of, and thus transforming, unsustainable social-ecological systems. Undesirable resilience (cf. lock-ins, social-ecological traps), however, is not only less explored in the academic literature, but its understanding is also more fragmented across different disciplines. This disparity can inhibit collaboration among researchers exploring interdependent challenges in sustainability sciences. In this article, we propose that the term lock-in may contribute to a common understanding of undesirable resilience across scientific fields

Climate and Food Production: Understanding Vulnerability from Past Trends in Africa’s Sudan-Sahel

Just how influential is rainfall on agricultural production in the Sudan-Sahel of Africa? And, is there evidence that support for small-scale farming can reduce the vulnerability of crop yields to rainfall in these sensitive agro-ecological zones? These questions are explored based on a case study from Cameroon’s Sudan-Sahel region. Climate data for 20 years and crop production data for six major food crops for the same years are used to find patterns of correlation over this time period. Results show a distinction of three periods of climatic influence of agriculture: one period before 1989, another between 1990 and 1999 and the last from 2000 to 2004. The analysis reveals that, while important in setting the enabling biophysical environment for food crop cultivation, the influence of rainfall in agriculture can be diluted by proactive policies that support food production. Proactive policies also reduce the impact of agriculturally relevant climatic shocks, such as droughts on food crop yields over the time-series. These findings emphasize the extent of vulnerability of food crop production to rainfall variations among small-holder farmers in these agro-ecological zones and reinforce the call for the proactive engagement of relevant institutions and support services in assisting the efforts of small-scale food producers in Africa’s Sudan-Sahel. The implications of climate variability on agriculture are discussed within the context of food security with particular reference to Africa’s Sudan-Sahel

Opening the door to social equity : local and participatory approaches to transportation planning in Montreal

Purpose: Transportation systems play a key role in providing individuals with a diversity of means to access their desired destinations and have significant impacts on their quality of life. The social perspective of mobility is, however, marginalized in the current model of transportation planning and significant changes are called for. This study aims to identify the barriers and opportunities of local participatory approaches to trigger changes in transportation planning in Montreal, drawing on the concept of social learning. Methods: A case study approach is selected and the participatory processes of two Local Transportation Plans (LTPs) are analysed. Data is collected through document analysis and semi-structured interviews with local transport planners and representatives of community groups. A qualitative content analysis is conducted to assess the outcomes of public participation, the quality of the processes and the perspectives of participants. Results: The results highlight the narrow contribution of the participation of local communities and community groups in the development of LTPs. Furthermore, the participatory process assessed in this research allows for a limited integration of social aspects in the planning process. The main barriers lie in the broader planning context and the organizational structure at the borough level as well as the lack of expertise of the community groups. Nevertheless, LTPs provide a window of opportunity for addressing transport-related social aspects. Conclusion: In order to take advantage of this opportunity and foster social learning towards the desired changes, the process requires the inclusion of clear social equity goals at the metropolitan level. Furthermore, the presence of a skilled facilitator is key to support the integration of diverse perspectives on transportation planning. It is also essential to provide community groups with resources to meaningfully participate in the process, thereby promoting social equity. In sum, LTPs have the potential to further include the social dimension of transport, but further steps are required to foster an equitable and sustainable transportation system. This research is of relevance to researchers and planners wishing to better understand the challenges associated with participatory processes and social equity in transport planning

Explaining Agricultural Yield Gaps in Cameroon

Popular Abstract in Swedish Ökad livsmedelsproduktion utgör ett viktigt steg för att uppnå livsmedelssäkerhet i Kamerun. Under det senaste halvseklet har ökningen av produktionen i huvudsak uppnåtts genom ökad uppodling. Till följd av ökad konkurrens om marken från jordbruket och andra sektorer är dessa möjligheter till ökad produktion, för att möta landets växande efterfråga nu begränsad. Alternativet är att öka avkastningen på den mark som redan odlas. Frågan som ställs i denna avhandling är därför hur mycket avkastningen kan öka? Dessutom är det nödvändigt att förstå vad de huvudsakliga hindren är för att minska klyftan mellan verklig och potentiell avkastning. I avhandlingen används en kombination av kvantitativa och kvalitativa metoder för att utforska dessa frågor. Resultaten visar att det finns stora skillnader mellan existerande och potentiell avkastning på viktiga livsmedelsgrödor i Kamerun. Skillnaderna beror främst på agronomiska snarare än biofysiska faktorer. Resultaten visar även att småskaliga jordbrukare har god kunskap om orsakerna till både avkastningsgapen och den låga jordbruksproduktionen i allmänhet. De småskaliga jordbrukarna är utsatta för chocker som översvämningar och torka. Rätt institutionellt och strukturellt stöd skulle kunna lindra konsekvenserna av dessa för livsmedelsproduktionen och avkastningen. En viktig förutsättning för att minska avkastningsgapet är bättre växtnäringsplanering för att återställa jordarnas sjunkande produktivitet. Med tanke på nuvarande socio-ekonomiska och miljömässiga förhållanden, kan det ökande beroendet av oorganisk gödning inte anses vara en lämplig strategi. En hållbar intensifiering med betoning på ekologiskt jordbruk erbjuder betydande fördelar i att överbrygga avkastningsgapet. Statligt stöd är en förutsättning för att att genomföra och upprätthålla ett sådant jordbrukssystem. Det finns också behov av att förändra den socio-ekonomiska kontexten för småskaliga jordbruksmetoder där könsrelaterade skillnader i tillgång till produktionsresurser minskas, och där jordbrukare ingår som viktiga intressenter i de beslutsprocesser som berör jordbruket

Explaining low yields and low food production in Cameroon : A farmers' perspective

While a bottom-up approach to identifying problems affecting food production among small-scale farmers has been urged as an appropriate means of finding sustainable solutions, few studies have determined the practical process of doing so and measured the outcomes of such an approach. This paper uses information gained mainly through focus groups with small-scale farmers and semi-structured interviews, to identify farmers' perceptions of reasons behind low yields and low agricultural production in three communities of Cameroon's North West region. Three biophysical factors are identified as the main reasons of low production: the long and more frequent dry spells and late start of the start of the rainy season. Three socio-economic reasons are identified as most important: land scarcity, money to invest in agriculture and labour scarcity. Farmers rank their reasons based on the importance to their agricultural production in their local area. Some of the important claims made by farmers are tested using field data and statistical analysis. These include the claims that: (1) the rainy season is increasingly starting later than it used to; and (2) the length of dry spells are increasingly longer than they used to be. The results of these statistical tests are significant, showing that farmers' knowledge of some of the local problems affecting their activities can serve as an important input into formal research and policy design. Peoples' understanding of a problem affects the way they will act on it-in terms of searching for solutions and implementing change. Farmers can therefore provide useful insights on why they think there are large yield gaps within their local production environments. The current agricultural development policy of the Cameroon government is advocating greater public-private engagement and can benefit from farmers' inputs and opinions in the design of relevant policies. In the same light, nonlocal based researchers and research institutions can draw on farmers' knowledge to create and accumulate knowledge on sustainable solutions to problems of low yields and low food production in Cameroon

Climate change and the future heat stress challenges among smallholder farmers in East Africa

Agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa remains dependent on high inputs of human labor, a situation associated with direct exposure to daylight heat during critical periods of the agricultural calendar. We ask the question: how is the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) going to be distributed in the future, and how will this affect the ability of smallholder farmers to perform agricultural activities? Data from general circulation models are used to estimate the distribution of WBGT in 2000, 2050 and 2100, and for high activity periods in the agricultural calendar. The distribution of WBGT is divided into recommended maximum WBGT exposure levels (°C) at different work intensities, and rest/work ratios for an average acclimatized worker wearing light clothing (ISO, 18). High WBGTs are observed during the two periods of the East African. In February to March, eastern and coastal regions of Kenya and Tanzania witness high WBGT values-some necessitating up to 75% rest/hour work intensities in 2050 and 2100. In August to September, eastern and northern Kenya and north and central Uganda are vulnerable to high WBGT values. Designing policies to address this key challenge is a critical element in adaptation methods to address the impact of climate change

Predicting suitable habitats of the African cherry (Prunus africana) under climate change in Tanzania

Prunus africana is a fast-growing, evergreen canopy tree with several medicinal, household, and agroforestry uses, as well as ecological value for over 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This species is under immense pressure from human activity, compounding its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Predicting suitable habitats for P. africana under changing climate is essential for conservation monitoring and planning. This study intends to predict the impact of climate change on the suitable habitats for the vulnerable P. africana in Tanzania. We used maximum entropy modeling to predict future habitat distribution based on the representative concentration pathways scenario 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-century 2050 and late-century 2070. Species occurrence records and environmental variables were used as a dependent variable and predictor variables respectively. The model performance was excellent with the area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) values of 0.96 and 0.85 respectively. The mean annual temperature (51.7%) and terrain ruggedness. index (31.6%) are the most important variables in predicting the current and future habitat distribution for P. africana. Our results show a decrease in suitable habitats for P. africana under all future representative concentration pathways scenario when compared with current distributions. These results have policy implications for over 22 countries of sub-Saharan Africa that are facing problems associated with the sustainability of this species. Institutional, policy, and conservation management approaches are proposed to support sustainable practices in favor of P. africana

Community resilience to natural disasters in the informal settlements in Mwanza City, Tanzania

The impacts of natural disasters on communities living in hazard prone areas are wide ranging and complex. In Mwanza, steep slopes, rocky hills and river valleys are inhabited by society's poorest people. These areas are prone to natural disasters. Residents have accumulated coping mechanisms for disaster risks and impact reduction. We combine spatial data, household surveys and data from focus groups to identify and rank areas based on their exposure to major disasters. We also examine household and communal mitigation efforts in relation to these disasters. Most areas of the city are exposed to at least one of the natural disasters studied. Pre- and post-disaster risk reduction measures are influenced by the site of homesteads and the socioeconomic situation of households. Current resilience measures are skewed towards the development of physical infrastructure. The challenge of reducing disaster risks in Mwanza involves recognizing the role of non-infrastructure based factors that promote urban resilience to natural disasters