Spotting Epidemic Keystones by R0 Sensitivity Analysis: High-Risk Stations in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area.

How can we identify the epidemiologically high-risk communities in a metapopulation network? The network centrality measure, which quantifies the relative importance of each location, is commonly utilized for this purpose. As the disease invasion condition is given from the basic reproductive ratio R0, we have introduced a novel centrality measure based on the sensitivity analysis of this R0 and shown its capability of revealing the characteristics that has been overlooked by the conventional centrality measures. The epidemic dynamics over the commute network of the Tokyo metropolitan area is theoretically analyzed by using this centrality measure. We found that, the impact of countermeasures at the largest station is more than 1,000 times stronger compare to that at the second largest station, even though the population sizes are only around 1.5 times larger. Furthermore, the effect of countermeasures at every station is strongly dependent on the existence and the number of commuters to this largest station. It is well known that the hubs are the most influential nodes, however, our analysis shows that only the largest among the network plays an extraordinary role. Lastly, we also found that, the location that is important for the prevention of disease invasion does not necessarily match the location that is important for reducing the number of infected

Epidemic process over the commute network in a metropolitan area.

An understanding of epidemiological dynamics is important for prevention and control of epidemic outbreaks. However, previous studies tend to focus only on specific areas, indicating that application to another area or intervention strategy requires a similar time-consuming simulation. Here, we study the epidemic dynamics of the disease-spread over a commute network, using the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example, in an attempt to elucidate the general properties of epidemic spread over a commute network that could be used for a prediction in any metropolitan area. The model is formulated on the basis of a metapopulation network in which local populations are interconnected by actual commuter flows in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the spread of infection is simulated by an individual-based model. We find that the probability of a global epidemic as well as the final epidemic sizes in both global and local populations, the timing of the epidemic peak, and the time at which the epidemic reaches a local population are mainly determined by the joint distribution of the local population sizes connected by the commuter flows, but are insensitive to geographical or topological structure of the network. Moreover, there is a strong relation between the population size and the time that the epidemic reaches this local population and we are able to determine the reason for this relation as well as its dependence on the commute network structure and epidemic parameters. This study shows that the model based on the connection between the population size classes is sufficient to predict both global and local epidemic dynamics in metropolitan area. Moreover, the clear relation of the time taken by the epidemic to reach each local population can be used as a novel measure for intervention; this enables efficient intervention strategies in each local population prior to the actual arrival

A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a properly coloured ff-factor in an edge-coloured graph

The main result of this paper is an edge-coloured version of Tutte's $f$-factor theorem. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for an edge-coloured graph $G^c$ to have a properly coloured $f$-factor. We state and prove our result in terms of an auxiliary graph $G_f^c$ which has a 1-factor if and only if $G^c$ has a properly coloured $f$-factor; this is analogous to the "short proof" of the $f$-factor theorem given by Tutte in 1954. An alternative statement, analogous to the original $f$-factor theorem, is also given. We show that our theorem generalises the $f$-factor theorem; that is, the former implies the latter. We consider other properties of edge-coloured graphs, and show that similar results are unlikely for $f$-factors with rainbow components and distance-$d$-coloured $f$-factors, even when $d=2$ and the number of colours used is asymptotically minimal.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figure

Commuter flow data for the Tokyo metropolitan area.

<p>(A) Geographical location of the Tokyo metropolitan area within Kanto region, Japan. The framed rectangle shows the central part of the Tokyo metropolitan area. (B) Distribution of the station sizes on a double-logarithmic plot. Blue line, distribution of home-node stations; red line, distribution of work-node stations. (C) and (D) Geographical distributions of the sizes of home- and work-node stations, respectively, within the central part of the Tokyo metropolitan area. The color indicates the size of the station: black, commuters; blue, commuters; green, commuters; red, commuters. All numbers are from the 139,841 collected questionnaires of UTC. The red-colored stations in the middle of (D) correspond to Tokyo's inner urban area (along the loop of the Yamanote line); the 2 red stations in the lower left of (D) are the Kawasaki and Yokohama stations. The longitude and latitude of each station were acquired from the Station Database [<a href="http://www.ekidata.jp" target="_blank">http://www.ekidata.jp</a>].</p