Simulating the coronal evolution of bipolar active regions to investigate the formation of flux ropes

Funding: S.L.Y. would like to acknowledge STFC for support via the Consolidated Grant SMC1/YST025. D.H.M. would like to thank STFC, the Leverhulme Trust and the ERC under the Synergy Grant: The Whole Sun, grant agreement no. 810218 for financial support. L.M.G. is thankful to the Royal Society for a University Research Fellowship and the Leverhulme Trust.The coronal magnetic field evolution of 20 bipolar active regions (ARs) is simulated from their emergence to decay using the time-dependent nonlinear force-free field method of Mackay, Green, and van Ballegooijen (Astrophys. J. 729, 97, 2011). A time sequence of cleaned photospheric line-of-sight magnetograms, which covers the entire evolution of each AR, is used to drive the simulation. A comparison of the simulated coronal magnetic field with the 171 and 193 Å observations obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), is made for each AR by manual inspection. The results show that it is possible to reproduce the evolution of the main coronal features such as small- and large-scale coronal loops, filaments and sheared structures for 80% of the ARs. Varying the boundary and initial conditions, along with the addition of physical effects such as Ohmic diffusion, hyperdiffusion and a horizontal magnetic field injection at the photosphere, improves the match between the observations and simulated coronal evolution by 20%. The simulations were able to reproduce the build-up to eruption for 50% of the observed eruptions associated with the ARs. The mean unsigned time difference between the eruptions occurring in the observations compared to the time of eruption onset in the simulations was found to be ≈5 hrs. The simulations were particularly successful in capturing the build-up to eruption for all four eruptions that originated from the internal polarity inversion line of the ARs. The technique was less successful in reproducing the onset of eruptions that originated from the periphery of ARs and large-scale coronal structures. For these cases global, rather than local, nonlinear force-free field models must be used. While the technique has shown some success, eruptions that occur in quick succession are difficult to reproduce by this method and future iterations of the model need to address this.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Determining the source and eruption dynamics of a stealth CME using NLFFF modelling and MHD simulations

Funding: S.L.Y. would like to acknowledge STFC for support via the consolidated grant SMC1/YST037 and alsoNERC for funding via the SWIMMR Aviation Risk Modelling (SWARM) Project, grant number NE/V002899/1. P.P.would like to thank the ERC for support via grant No. 647214. D.H.M. would like to thank the STFC for support via consolidated grant ST/N000609/1 and, the Leverhulme trust, and the ERC under the Synergy Grant: The Whole Sun (grant agreement no. 810218) for financial support. P.P. and D.H.M. would like to thank STFC for IAA funding under grant number SMC1-XAS012. L.A.U. was supported by the NSF Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Postdoctoral Research Fellowship Program (Award AGS-1624438).Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that exhibit weak or no eruption signatures in the low corona, known as stealth CMEs, are problematic as upon arrival at Earth they can lead to geomagnetic disturbances that were not predicted by space weather forecasters. Aims. We investigate the origin and eruption of a stealth event that occurred on 2015 January 3 that was responsible for a strong geomagnetic storm upon its arrival at Earth. Methods. To simulate the coronal magnetic field and plasma parameters of the eruption we use a coupled approach. This approach combines an evolutionary nonlinear force-free field model of the global corona with a MHD simulation. Results. The combined simulation approach accurately reproduces the stealth event and suggests that sympathetic eruptions occur. In the combined simulation we found that three flux ropes form and then erupt. The first two flux ropes, which are connected to a large AR complex behind the east limb, erupt first producing two near-simultaneous CMEs. These CMEs are closely followed by a third, weaker flux rope eruption in the simulation that originated between the periphery of AR 12252 and the southern polar coronal hole. The third eruption coincides with a faint coronal dimming, which appears in the SDO/AIA 211 Å observations, that is attributed as the source responsible for the stealth event and later the geomagnetic disturbance at 1 AU. The incorrect interpretation of the stealth event being linked to the occurrence of a single partial halo CME observed by LASCO/C2 is mainly due to the lack of STEREO observations being available at the time of the CMEs. The simulation also shows that the LASCO CME is not a single event but rather two near-simultaneous CMEs. Conclusions. These results show the significance of the coupled data-driven simulation approach in interpreting the eruption and that an operational L5 mission is crucial for space weather forecastingPostprintPeer reviewe

Slow Solar Wind Connection Science during Solar Orbiter’s First Close Perihelion Passage

The Slow Solar Wind Connection Solar Orbiter Observing Plan (Slow Wind SOOP) was developed to utilize the extensive suite of remote-sensing and in situ instruments on board the ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter mission to answer significant outstanding questions regarding the origin and formation of the slow solar wind. The Slow Wind SOOP was designed to link remote-sensing and in situ measurements of slow wind originating at open–closed magnetic field boundaries. The SOOP ran just prior to Solar Orbiter’s first close perihelion passage during two remote-sensing windows (RSW1 and RSW2) between 2022 March 3–6 and 2022 March 17–22, while Solar Orbiter was at respective heliocentric distances of 0.55–0.51 and 0.38–0.34 au from the Sun. Coordinated observation campaigns were also conducted by Hinode and IRIS. The magnetic connectivity tool was used, along with low-latency in situ data and full-disk remote-sensing observations, to guide the target pointing of Solar Orbiter. Solar Orbiter targeted an active region complex during RSW1, the boundary of a coronal hole, and the periphery of a decayed active region during RSW2. Postobservation analysis using the magnetic connectivity tool, along with in situ measurements from MAG and SWA/PAS, showed that slow solar wind originating from two out of three of the target regions arrived at the spacecraft with velocities between ∼210 and 600 km s−1. The Slow Wind SOOP, despite presenting many challenges, was very successful, providing a blueprint for planning future observation campaigns that rely on the magnetic connectivity of Solar Orbiter

Home and Online Management and Evaluation of Blood Pressure (HOME BP) using a digital intervention in poorly controlled hypertension: randomised controlled trial

Objective: The HOME BP (Home and Online Management and Evaluation of Blood Pressure) trial aimed to test a digital intervention for hypertension management in primary care by combining self-monitoring of blood pressure with guided self-management. Design: Unmasked randomised controlled trial with automated ascertainment of primary endpoint. Setting: 76 general practices in the United Kingdom. Participants: 622 people with treated but poorly controlled hypertension (>140/90 mm Hg) and access to the internet. Interventions: Participants were randomised by using a minimisation algorithm to self-monitoring of blood pressure with a digital intervention (305 participants) or usual care (routine hypertension care, with appointments and drug changes made at the discretion of the general practitioner; 317 participants). The digital intervention provided feedback of blood pressure results to patients and professionals with optional lifestyle advice and motivational support. Target blood pressure for hypertension, diabetes, and people aged 80 or older followed UK national guidelines. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was the difference in systolic blood pressure (mean of second and third readings) after one year, adjusted for baseline blood pressure, blood pressure target, age, and practice, with multiple imputation for missing values. Results: After one year, data were available from 552 participants (88.6%) with imputation for the remaining 70 participants (11.4%). Mean blood pressure dropped from 151.7/86.4 to 138.4/80.2 mm Hg in the intervention group and from 151.6/85.3 to 141.8/79.8 mm Hg in the usual care group, giving a mean difference in systolic blood pressure of −3.4 mm Hg (95% confidence interval −6.1 to −0.8 mm Hg) and a mean difference in diastolic blood pressure of −0.5 mm Hg (−1.9 to 0.9 mm Hg). Results were comparable in the complete case analysis and adverse effects were similar between groups. Within trial costs showed an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of £11 ($15, €12; 95% confidence interval £6 to £29) per mm Hg reduction. Conclusions: The HOME BP digital intervention for the management of hypertension by using self-monitored blood pressure led to better control of systolic blood pressure after one year than usual care, with low incremental costs. Implementation in primary care will require integration into clinical workflows and consideration of people who are digitally excluded. Trial registration: ISRCTN13790648

A space weather tool for identifying eruptive active regions

Funding: UK Science and Technology Facilities Council (UK) through the consolidated grant ST/N000609/1 and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement No. 647214); UK STFC via the Consolidated Grant SMC1/YST025 and SMC1/YST037 (S.L.Y.); UK STFC and the ERC (SynergyGrant: WHOLE SUN, Grant Agreement No. 810218) for financial support (DHM).One of the main goals of solar physics is the timely identification of eruptive active regions. Space missions such as Solar Orbiter or future Space Weather forecasting missions would largely benefit from this achievement.Our aim is to produce a relatively simple technique that can provide real time indications or predictions that an active region will produce an eruption. We expand on the theoretical work of Pagano et al.(2019) that was able to distinguish eruptive from non-eruptive active regions.From this we introduce a new operational metric that uses a combination of observed line-of-sight magnetograms, 3D data-driven simulations and the projection of the 3D simulations forward in time. Results show that the new metric correctly distinguishes active regions as eruptive when observable signatures of eruption have been identified and as non-eruptive when there are no observable signatures of eruption. After successfully distinguishing eruptive from non-eruptive active regions we illustrate how this metric may be used in a “real-time” operational sense were three levels of warning are categorised. These categories are: high risk (red), medium risk (amber) and low risk (green) of eruption. Through considering individual cases we find that the separation into eruptive and non-eruptive active regions is more robust the longer the time series of observed magnetograms used to simulate the build up of magnetic stress and free magnetic energy within the active region. Finally, we conclude that this proof of concept study delivers promising results where the ability to categorise the risk of an eruption is a major achievement.PostprintPeer reviewe

Understanding the plasma and magnetic field evolution of a filament using observations and non-linear force-free field modelling : evolution of an intermediate filament

Funding: UK STFC via PhD studentship and the Consolidated Grant SMC1/YST025 (S.L.Y.); STFC and Leverhulme trust (D.H.M.).We present observations and magnetic field models of an intermediate filament present on the Sun in August 2012, associated with a polarity inversion line that extends from AR 11541 in the east into the quiet sun at its western end. A combination of SDO/AIA, SDO/HMI, and GONG Hα data allow us to analyse the structure and evolution of the filament from 2012 August 4 23:00 UT to 2012 August 6 08:00 UT when the filament was in equilibrium. By applying the flux rope insertion method, nonlinear force-free field models of the filament are constructed using SDO/HMI line-of-sight magnetograms as the boundary condition at the two times given above. Guided by observed filament barbs, both modelled flux ropes are split into three sections each with a different value of axial flux to represent the non-uniform photospheric field distribution. The flux in the eastern section of the rope increases by 4x1020 Mx between the two models, which is in good agreement with the amount of flux cancelled along the internal PIL of AR 11541, calculated to be 3.2x1020 Mx. This suggests that flux cancellation builds flux into the filament's magnetic structure. Additionally, the number of field line dips increases between the two models in the locations where flux cancellation, the formation of new filament threads and growth of the filament is observed. This suggests that flux cancellation associated with magnetic reconnection forms concave-up magnetic field that lifts plasma into the filament. During this time, the free magnetic energy in the models increases by 0.2 x 1031 ergs.PostprintPeer reviewe

Slow Solar Wind Connection Science during Solar Orbiter's First Close Perihelion Passage

The Slow Solar Wind Connection Solar Orbiter Observing Plan (Slow Wind SOOP) was developed to utilize the extensive suite of remote-sensing and in situ instruments on board the ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter mission to answer significant outstanding questions regarding the origin and formation of the slow solar wind. The Slow Wind SOOP was designed to link remote-sensing and in situ measurements of slow wind originating at open-closed magnetic field boundaries. The SOOP ran just prior to Solar Orbiter's first close perihelion passage during two remote-sensing windows (RSW1 and RSW2) between 2022 March 3-6 and 2022 March 17-22, while Solar Orbiter was at respective heliocentric distances of 0.55-0.51 and 0.38-0.34 au from the Sun. Coordinated observation campaigns were also conducted by Hinode and IRIS. The magnetic connectivity tool was used, along with low-latency in situ data and full-disk remote-sensing observations, to guide the target pointing of Solar Orbiter. Solar Orbiter targeted an active region complex during RSW1, the boundary of a coronal hole, and the periphery of a decayed active region during RSW2. Postobservation analysis using the magnetic connectivity tool, along with in situ measurements from MAG and SWA/PAS, showed that slow solar wind originating from two out of three of the target regions arrived at the spacecraft with velocities between & SIM;210 and 600 km s(-1). The Slow Wind SOOP, despite presenting many challenges, was very successful, providing a blueprint for planning future observation campaigns that rely on the magnetic connectivity of Solar Orbiter.ISSN:1538-4365ISSN:0067-004

Observational Evidence of S-web Source of the Slow Solar Wind

From 2022 March 18 to 21, NOAA Active Region (AR) 12967 was tracked simultaneously by Solar Orbiter at 0.35 au and Hinode/EIS at Earth. During this period, strong blueshifted plasma upflows were observed along a thin, dark corridor of open magnetic field originating at the AR’s leading polarity and continuing toward the southern extension of the northern polar coronal hole. A potential field source surface model shows large lateral expansion of the open magnetic field along the corridor. Squashing factor Q-maps of the large-scale topology further confirm super-radial expansion in support of the S-web theory for the slow wind. The thin corridor of upflows is identified as the source region of a slow solar wind stream characterized by ∼300 km s−1 velocities, low proton temperatures of ∼5 eV, extremely high density >100 cm−3, and a short interval of moderate Alfvénicity accompanied by switchback events. When the connectivity changes from the corridor to the eastern side of the AR, the in situ plasma parameters of the slow solar wind indicate a distinctly different source region. These observations provide strong evidence that the narrow open-field corridors, forming part of the S-web, produce some extreme properties in their associated solar wind streams.ISSN:0004-637XISSN:2041-821

Slow Solar Wind Connection Science during Solar Orbiter’s First Close Perihelion Passage

The Slow Solar Wind Connection Solar Orbiter Observing Plan (Slow Wind SOOP) was developed to utilize the extensive suite of remote-sensing and in situ instruments on board the ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter mission to answer significant outstanding questions regarding the origin and formation of the slow solar wind. The Slow Wind SOOP was designed to link remote-sensing and in situ measurements of slow wind originating at open–closed magnetic field boundaries. The SOOP ran just prior to Solar Orbiter’s first close perihelion passage during two remote-sensing windows (RSW1 and RSW2) between 2022 March 3–6 and 2022 March 17–22, while Solar Orbiter was at respective heliocentric distances of 0.55–0.51 and 0.38–0.34 au from the Sun. Coordinated observation campaigns were also conducted by Hinode and IRIS. The magnetic connectivity tool was used, along with low-latency in situ data and full-disk remote-sensing observations, to guide the target pointing of Solar Orbiter. Solar Orbiter targeted an active region complex during RSW1, the boundary of a coronal hole, and the periphery of a decayed active region during RSW2. Postobservation analysis using the magnetic connectivity tool, along with in situ measurements from MAG and SWA/PAS, showed that slow solar wind originating from two out of three of the target regions arrived at the spacecraft with velocities between ∼210 and 600 km s ^−1 . The Slow Wind SOOP, despite presenting many challenges, was very successful, providing a blueprint for planning future observation campaigns that rely on the magnetic connectivity of Solar Orbiter