Simulating the coronal evolution of bipolar active regions to investigate the formation of flux ropes

Funding: S.L.Y. would like to acknowledge STFC for support via the Consolidated Grant SMC1/YST025. D.H.M. would like to thank STFC, the Leverhulme Trust and the ERC under the Synergy Grant: The Whole Sun, grant agreement no. 810218 for financial support. L.M.G. is thankful to the Royal Society for a University Research Fellowship and the Leverhulme Trust.The coronal magnetic field evolution of 20 bipolar active regions (ARs) is simulated from their emergence to decay using the time-dependent nonlinear force-free field method of Mackay, Green, and van Ballegooijen (Astrophys. J. 729, 97, 2011). A time sequence of cleaned photospheric line-of-sight magnetograms, which covers the entire evolution of each AR, is used to drive the simulation. A comparison of the simulated coronal magnetic field with the 171 and 193 Å observations obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), is made for each AR by manual inspection. The results show that it is possible to reproduce the evolution of the main coronal features such as small- and large-scale coronal loops, filaments and sheared structures for 80% of the ARs. Varying the boundary and initial conditions, along with the addition of physical effects such as Ohmic diffusion, hyperdiffusion and a horizontal magnetic field injection at the photosphere, improves the match between the observations and simulated coronal evolution by 20%. The simulations were able to reproduce the build-up to eruption for 50% of the observed eruptions associated with the ARs. The mean unsigned time difference between the eruptions occurring in the observations compared to the time of eruption onset in the simulations was found to be ≈5 hrs. The simulations were particularly successful in capturing the build-up to eruption for all four eruptions that originated from the internal polarity inversion line of the ARs. The technique was less successful in reproducing the onset of eruptions that originated from the periphery of ARs and large-scale coronal structures. For these cases global, rather than local, nonlinear force-free field models must be used. While the technique has shown some success, eruptions that occur in quick succession are difficult to reproduce by this method and future iterations of the model need to address this.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Determining the source and eruption dynamics of a stealth CME using NLFFF modelling and MHD simulations

Funding: S.L.Y. would like to acknowledge STFC for support via the consolidated grant SMC1/YST037 and alsoNERC for funding via the SWIMMR Aviation Risk Modelling (SWARM) Project, grant number NE/V002899/1. P.P.would like to thank the ERC for support via grant No. 647214. D.H.M. would like to thank the STFC for support via consolidated grant ST/N000609/1 and, the Leverhulme trust, and the ERC under the Synergy Grant: The Whole Sun (grant agreement no. 810218) for financial support. P.P. and D.H.M. would like to thank STFC for IAA funding under grant number SMC1-XAS012. L.A.U. was supported by the NSF Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Postdoctoral Research Fellowship Program (Award AGS-1624438).Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that exhibit weak or no eruption signatures in the low corona, known as stealth CMEs, are problematic as upon arrival at Earth they can lead to geomagnetic disturbances that were not predicted by space weather forecasters. Aims. We investigate the origin and eruption of a stealth event that occurred on 2015 January 3 that was responsible for a strong geomagnetic storm upon its arrival at Earth. Methods. To simulate the coronal magnetic field and plasma parameters of the eruption we use a coupled approach. This approach combines an evolutionary nonlinear force-free field model of the global corona with a MHD simulation. Results. The combined simulation approach accurately reproduces the stealth event and suggests that sympathetic eruptions occur. In the combined simulation we found that three flux ropes form and then erupt. The first two flux ropes, which are connected to a large AR complex behind the east limb, erupt first producing two near-simultaneous CMEs. These CMEs are closely followed by a third, weaker flux rope eruption in the simulation that originated between the periphery of AR 12252 and the southern polar coronal hole. The third eruption coincides with a faint coronal dimming, which appears in the SDO/AIA 211 Å observations, that is attributed as the source responsible for the stealth event and later the geomagnetic disturbance at 1 AU. The incorrect interpretation of the stealth event being linked to the occurrence of a single partial halo CME observed by LASCO/C2 is mainly due to the lack of STEREO observations being available at the time of the CMEs. The simulation also shows that the LASCO CME is not a single event but rather two near-simultaneous CMEs. Conclusions. These results show the significance of the coupled data-driven simulation approach in interpreting the eruption and that an operational L5 mission is crucial for space weather forecastingPostprintPeer reviewe

The magnetic field environment of active region 12673 that produced the energetic particle events of September 2017

Forecasting solar energetic particles (SEPs), and identifying flare/CMEs from active regions (ARs) that will produce SEP events in advance is extremely challenging. We investigate the magnetic field environment of AR 12673, including the AR's magnetic configuration, the surrounding field configuration in the vicinity of the AR, the decay index profile, and the footpoints of Earth-connected magnetic field, around the time of four eruptive events. Two of the eruptive events are SEP-productive (2017 September 4 at 20:00~UT and September 6 at 11:56~UT), while two are not (September 4 at 18:05~UT and September 7 at 14:33~UT). We analysed a range of EUV and white-light coronagraph observations along with potential field extrapolations and find that the CMEs associated with the SEP-productive events either trigger null point reconnection that redirects flare-accelerated particles from the flare site to the Earth-connected field and/or have a significant expansion (and shock formation) into the open Earth-connected field. The rate of change of the decay index with height indicates that the region could produce a fast CME ($v >$ 1500~km~s$^{-1}$), which it did during events two and three. The AR's magnetic field environment, including sites of open magnetic field and null points along with the magnetic field connectivity and propagation direction of the CMEs play an important role in the escape and arrival of SEPs at Earth. Other SEP-productive ARs should be investigated to determine whether their magnetic field environment and CME propagation direction are significant in the escape and arrival of SEPs at Earth.Comment: Accepted in ApJ, 18 pages, 8 Figures, 2 Table

Detection of Stellar-like Abundance Anomalies in the Slow Solar Wind

The elemental composition of the Sun's hot atmosphere, the corona, shows a distinctive pattern that is different from the underlying surface or photosphere. Elements that are easy to ionize in the chromosphere are enhanced in abundance in the corona compared to their photospheric values. A similar pattern of behavior is often observed in the slow-speed (<500 km s−1) solar wind and in solar-like stellar coronae, while a reversed effect is seen in M dwarfs. Studies of the inverse effect have been hampered in the past because only unresolved (point-source) spectroscopic data were available for these stellar targets. Here we report the discovery of several inverse events observed in situ in the slow solar wind using particle-counting techniques. These very rare events all occur during periods of high solar activity that mimic conditions more widespread on M dwarfs. The detections allow a new way of connecting the slow wind to its solar source and are broadly consistent with theoretical models of abundance variations due to chromospheric fast-mode waves with amplitudes of 8–10 km s−1, sufficient to accelerate the solar wind. The results imply that M-dwarf winds are dominated by plasma depleted in easily ionized elements and lend credence to previous spectroscopic measurements

A prospective new diagnostic technique for distinguishing eruptive and noneruptive active regions

This research has received funding from the Science and Technology Facilities Council (UK) through the consolidated grant ST/N000609/1 and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement No. 647214). This work used the DiRAC@Durham facility managed by the Institute for Computational Cosmology on behalf of the STFC DiRAC HPC Facility (www.dirac.ac.uk). The equipment was funded by BEIS capital funding via STFC capital grants ST/P002293/1, ST/R002371/1, and ST/S002502/1, Durham University and STFC operations grant ST/R000832/1. DiRAC is part of the National e-Infrastructure. S.L.Y. would like to acknowledge STFC for support via the Consolidated Grants SMC1/YST025 and SMC1/YST037. D.H.M. would like to thank both the UK STFC and the ERC (Synergy Grant: WHOLE SUN, Grant Agreement No. 810218) for financial support.Active regions are the source of the majority of magnetic flux rope ejections that become coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To identify in advance which active regions will produce an ejection is key for both space weather prediction tools and future science missions such as Solar Orbiter. The aim of this study is to develop a new technique to identify which active regions are more likely to generate magnetic flux rope ejections. The new technique will aim to (i) produce timely space weather warnings and (ii) open the way to a qualified selection of observational targets for space-borne instruments. We use a data-driven nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) model to describe the 3D evolution of the magnetic field of a set of active regions. We determine a metric to distinguish eruptive from noneruptive active regions based on the Lorentz force. Furthermore, using a subset of the observed magnetograms, we run a series of simulations to test whether the time evolution of the metric can be predicted. The identified metric successfully differentiates active regions observed to produce eruptions from the noneruptive ones in our data sample. A meaningful prediction of the metric can be made between 6 and 16 hr in advance. This initial study presents an interesting first step in the prediction of CME onset using only line-of-sight magnetogram observations combined with NLFFF modeling. Future studies will address how to generalize the model such that it can be used in a more operational sense and for a variety of simulation approaches.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The Merging of a Coronal Dimming and the Southern Polar Coronal Hole

We report on the merging between the southern polar coronal hole and an adjacent coronal dimming induced by a coronal mass ejection on 2022 March 18, resulting in the merged region persisting for at least 72 hr. We use remote sensing data from multiple co-observing spacecraft to understand the physical processes during this merging event. The evolution of the merger is examined using Extreme-UltraViolet (EUV) images obtained from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory and Extreme Ultraviolet Imager, which is on board the Solar Orbiter spacecraft. The plasma dynamics are quantified using spectroscopic data obtained from the EUV Imaging Spectrometer on board Hinode. The photospheric magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager are used to derive the magnetic field properties. To our knowledge, this work is the first spectroscopical analysis of the merging of two open-field structures. We find that the coronal hole and the coronal dimming become indistinguishable after the merging. The upflow speeds inside the coronal dimming become more similar to that of a coronal hole, with a mixture of plasma upflows and downflows observable after the merging. The brightening of the bright points and the appearance of coronal jets inside the merged region further imply ongoing reconnection processes. We propose that component reconnection between the coronal hole and coronal dimming fields plays an important role during this merging event because the footpoint switching resulting from the reconnection allows the coronal dimming to intrude onto the boundary of the southern polar coronal hole

An internet-based intervention with brief nurse support to manage obesity in primary care (POWeR+): a pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial

Background The obesity epidemic has major public health consequences. Expert dietetic and behavioural counselling with intensive follow-up is effective, but resource requirements severely restrict widespread implementation in primary care, where most patients are managed. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an internet-based behavioural intervention (POWeR+) combined with brief practice nurse support in primary care. Methods We did this pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial at 56 primary care practices in central and south England. Eligible adults aged 18 years or older with a BMI of 30 kg/m2 or more (or ≥28 kg/m2 with hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, or diabetes) registered online with POWeR+—a 24 session, web-based, weight management intervention lasting 6 months. After registration, the website automatically randomly assigned patients (1:1:1), via computer-generated random numbers, to receive evidence-based dietetic advice to swap foods for similar, but healthier, choices and increase fruit and vegetable intake, in addition to 6 monthly nurse follow-up (control group); web-based intervention and face-to-face nurse support (POWeR+Face-to-face [POWeR+F]; up to seven nurse contacts over 6 months); or web-based intervention and remote nurse support (POWeR+Remote [POWeR+R]; up to five emails or brief phone calls over 6 months). Participants and investigators were masked to group allocation at the point of randomisation; masking of participants was not possible after randomisation. The primary outcome was weight loss averaged over 12 months. We did a secondary analysis of weight to measure maintenance of 5% weight loss at months 6 and 12. We modelled the cost-effectiveness of each intervention. We did analysis by intention to treat, with multiple imputation for missing data. This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN21244703. Findings Between Jan 30, 2013, and March 20, 2014, 818 participants were randomly assigned to the control group (n=279), the POWeR+F group (n=269), or the POWeR+R group (n=270). Weight loss averaged over 12 months was recorded in 666 (81%) participants. The control group lost almost 3 kg over 12 months (crude mean weight: baseline 104·38 kg [SD 21·11; n=279], 6 months 101·91 kg [19·35; n=136], 12 months 101·74 kg [19·57; n=227]). The primary imputed analysis showed that compared with the control group, patients in the POWeR+F group achieved an additional weight reduction of 1·5 kg (95% CI 0·6–2·4; p=0·001) averaged over 12 months, and patients in the POWeR+R group achieved an additional 1·3 kg (0·34–2·2; p=0·007). 21% of patients in the control group had maintained a clinically important 5% weight reduction at month 12, compared with 29% of patients in the POWeR+F group (risk ratio 1·56, 0·96–2·51; p=0·070) and 32% of patients in the POWeR+R group (1·82, 1·31–2·74; p=0·004). The incremental overall cost to the health service per kg weight lost with the POWeR+ interventions versus the control strategy was £18 (95% CI −129 to 195) for POWeR+F and –£25 (−268 to 157) for POWeR+R; the probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of £100 per kg lost was 88% and 98%, respectively. No adverse events were reported. Interpretation Weight loss can be maintained in some individuals by use of novel written material with occasional brief nurse follow-up. However, more people can maintain clinically important weight reductions with a web-based behavioural program and brief remote follow-up, with no increase in health service costs. Future research should assess the extent to which clinically important weight loss can be maintained beyond 1 year

Investigating Remote-sensing Techniques to Reveal Stealth Coronal Mass Ejections

Eruptions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun are usually associated with a number of signatures that can be identified in solar disc imagery. However, there are cases in which a CME that is well observed in coronagraph data is missing a clear low-coronal counterpart. These events have received attention during recent years, mainly as a result of the increased availability of multi-point observations, and are now known as 'stealth CMEs'. In this work, we analyse examples of stealth CMEs featuring various levels of ambiguity. All the selected case studies produced a large-scale CME detected by coronagraphs and were observed from at least one secondary viewpoint, enabling a priori knowledge of their approximate source region. To each event, we apply several image processing and geometric techniques with the aim to evaluate whether such methods can provide additional information compared to the study of "normal" intensity images. We are able to identify at least weak eruptive signatures for all events upon careful investigation of remote-sensing data, noting that differently processed images may be needed to properly interpret and analyse elusive observations. We also find that the effectiveness of geometric techniques strongly depends on the CME propagation direction with respect to the observers and the relative spacecraft separation. Being able to observe and therefore forecast stealth CMEs is of great importance in the context of space weather, since such events are occasionally the solar counterparts of so-called 'problem geomagnetic storms'.Comment: 26 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Science

Understanding the Plasma and Magnetic Field Evolution of a Filament Using Observations and Nonlinear Force-free Field Modeling

We present observations and magnetic field models of an intermediate filament present on the Sun in 2012 August, associated with a polarit inversion line that extends from AR 11541 in the east into the quiet Su at its western end. A combination of Solar Dynamics Observator (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly, SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Image (HMI), and Global Oscillation Network Group Hα data allow us to analyz the structure and evolution of the filament from 2012 August 4 23:00 U to 2012 August 6 08:00 UT when the filament was in equilibrium. B applying the flux rope insertion method, nonlinear force-free fiel models of the filament are constructed using SDO/HMI line-of-sigh magnetograms as the boundary condition at the two times given above Guided by observed filament barbs, both modeled flux ropes are spli into three sections each with a different value of axial flux t represent the nonuniform photospheric field distribution. The flux i the eastern section of the rope increases by 4 × 1020 M between the two models, which is in good agreement with the amount o flux canceled along the internal PIL of AR 11541, calculated to be 3.2 1020 Mx. This suggests that flux cancellation builds flu into the filament’s magnetic structure. Additionally, the number o field line dips increases between the two models in the locations wher flux cancellation, the formation of new filament threads, and growth o the filament is observed. This suggests that flux cancellatio associated with magnetic reconnection forms concave-up magnetic fiel that lifts plasma into the filament. During this time, the free magneti energy in the models increases by 0.2 × 1031 erg

Annual variations in the near-Earth solar wind

Earth’s orbit and rotation produces systematic variations in geomagnetic activity, most notably via the changing orientation of the dayside magnetospheric magnetic field with respect to the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF). Aside from these geometric effects, it is generally assumed that the solar wind in near-Earth is uniformly sampled. But systematic changes in the intrinsic solar wind conditions in near-Earth space could arise due to the annual variations in Earth heliocentric distance and heliographic latitude. In this study, we use 24 years of Advanced Composition Explorer data to investigate the annual variations in the scalar properties of the solar wind, namely the solar wind proton density, the radial solar wind speed and the HMF intensity. All parameters do show some degree of systematic annual variation, with amplitudes of around 10 to 20%. For HMF intensity, the variation is in phase with the Earth’s heliocentric distance variation, and scaling observations for distance largely explains the observed variation. For proton density and solar wind speed, however, the phase of the annual variation is inconsistent with Earth’s heliocentric distance. Instead, we attribute the variations in speed and density to Earth’s heliographic latitude variation and systematic sampling of higher speed solar wind at higher latitudes. Indeed, these annual variations are most strongly ordered at solar minimum. Conversely, combining scalar solar wind parameters to produce estimates of dynamic pressure and potential power input to the magnetosphere results in solar maximum exhibiting a greater annual variation, with an amplitude of around 40%. This suggests Earth’s position in the heliosphere makes a significant contribution to annual variations in space weather, in addition to the already well-studied geometric effects