Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province

In December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease (later named as COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China and, later on, detected in other parts of China. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures, estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical model.; A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is proposed. COVID-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province, including the cumulative confirmed cases, the cumulative deaths, newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020, were archived from the National Health Commission of China (NHCC). We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and estimate the control reproduction number (R; c; ), as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio- R; e; (t), of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province.; The estimation outcomes indicate that R; c; is 3.36 (95% CI: 3.20-3.64) and R; e; (t) has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020, which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 transmission. Moreover, our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected, and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or outbreaks. By calculating the effective reproduction ratio, we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30% of the normal level by April, 2020.; To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly, it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures, including travel restriction, quarantine of entry, contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation and reduction of contact, like wearing masks, keeping social distance, etc. People should be fully aware of the real-time epidemic situation and keep sufficient personal protection until April. If all the above conditions are met, the outbreak is expected to be ended by April in the mainland of China apart from Hubei province

Methods used to study the oligomeric structure of G protein-coupled receptors

G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs), which constitute the largest family of cell surface receptors, were originally thought to function as monomers, but are now recognized as being able to act in a wide range of oligomeric states and indeed, it is known that the oligomerization state of a GPCR can modulate its pharmacology and function. A number of experimental techniques have been devised to study GPCR oligomerization including those based upon traditional biochemistry such as blue-native polyacrylamide gel-electrophoresis (BN-PAGE), co-immunoprecipitation and protein-fragment complementation assays, those based upon resonance energy transfer, fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET), time-resolved FRET, FRET spectrometry and bioluminescence resonance energy transfer (BRET). Those based upon microscopy such as fluorescence recovery after photo-bleaching (FRAP), total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy (TIRF), spatial intensity distribution analysis (SpIDA) and various single molecule imaging techniques. Finally with the solution of a growing number of crystal structures, X-ray crystallography must be acknowledged as an important source of discovery in this field. A different, but in many ways complementary approach to the use of more traditional experimental techniques, are those involving computational methods which possess obvious merit in the study of the dynamics of oligomer formation and function. Here we summarize the latest developments which have been made in the methods used to study GPCR oligomerization and give an overview of their application

Cell phone–based health education messaging improves health literacy

Background: The ubiquity of cell phones, which allow for short message service (SMS), provides new and innovative opportunities for disease prevention and health education.Objective: To explore the use of cell phone–based health education SMS to improve the health literacy of community residents in China.Methods: A multi-stage random sampling method was used to select representative study communities and participants ≥ 18 years old. Intervention participants were sent health education SMSs once a week for 1 year and controls were sent conventional, basic health education measures. Health literacy levels of the residents before and after the intervention were evaluated between intervention and control groups.Results: Public health literacy scores increased 1.5 points, from 61.8 to 63.3, after SMS intervention for 1 year (P<0.01); the increase was greater for males than females (2.01 vs. 1.03; P<0.01) and for Shenzhen local residents than non permanent residents (2.56 vs. 1.14; P<0.01). The frequency of high health literacy scores was greater for the intervention than control group (22.03% to 30.93% vs. 22.07% to 20.82%). With health literacy as a cost-effective index, the cost-effectiveness per intervention was 0.54.Conclusion: SMS may be a useful tool for improving health literacy.Keywords: Health literacy, intervention, community residents, cell phone, short message servic