Bayesian Evidence against Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum in tension cosmology

Current cosmological constraints on the scalar spectral index of primordial fluctuations $n_{\rm s}$ in the $\Lambda$CDM model have excluded the minimal scale-invariant Harrison-Zel'dovich model ($n_{\rm s}=1$; hereafter HZ) at high significance, providing support for inflation. In recent years, however, some tensions have emerged between different cosmological datasets that, if not due to systematics, could indicate the presence of new physics beyond the $\Lambda$CDM model. In the light of these developments, we evaluate the Bayesian evidence against HZ in different data combinations and model extensions. Considering only the Planck temperature data, we find inconclusive evidence against HZ when including variations in the neutrino number $N_{\rm eff}$ and/or the Helium abundance $Y_{\rm He}$. Adding the Planck polarization data, on the other hand, yields strong evidence against HZ in the extensions we considered. Perhaps most interestingly, Planck temperature data combined with local measurements of the Hubble constant give as the most probable model an HZ spectrum, with additional neutrinos. However, with the inclusion of polarisation, standard $\Lambda$CDM is once again preferred, but the HZ model with extra neutrinos is not strongly disfavored. The possibility of fully ruling out the HZ spectrum is therefore ultimately connected with the solution to current tensions between cosmological datasets. If these tensions are confirmed by future data, then new physical mechanisms could be at work and an HZ spectrum could still offer a valid alternative.Comment: 14 pages, 1 figur

CMB lensing reconstruction in the presence of diffuse polarized foregrounds

Comment: 22 pages, 24 figures; With a moderate revision of the original version, as published in JCA

Measuring primordial gravitational waves from CMB B-modes in cosmologies with generalized expansion histories

We evaluate our capability to constrain the abundance of primordial tensor perturbations in cosmologies with generalized expansion histories in the epoch of cosmic acceleration. Forthcoming satellite and sub-orbital experiments probing polarization in the CMB are expected to measure the B-mode power in CMB polarization, coming from PGWs on the degree scale, as well as gravitational lensing on arcmin scales; the latter is the main competitor for the measurement of PGWs, and is directly affected by the underlying expansion history, determined by the presence of a DE component. In particular, we consider early DE possible scenarios, in which the expansion history is substantially modified at the epoch in which the CMB lensing is most relevant. We show that the introduction of a parametrized DE may induce a variation as large as 30% in the ratio of the power of lensing and PGWs on the degree scale. We find that adopting the nominal specifications of upcoming satellite measurements the constraining power on PGWs is weakened by the inclusion of the extra degrees of freedom, resulting in a reduction of about 10% of the upper limits on r in fiducial models with no GWs, as well as a comparable increase in the error bars in models with non-zero r. Moreover, we find that the inclusion of sub-orbital CMB experiments, capable of mapping the B-mode power up to the angular scales affected by lensing, can restore the forecasted performances with a cosmological constant. Finally, we show how the combination of CMB data with Type Ia SNe, BAO and Hubble constant allows to constrain simultaneously r and the DE quantities in the parametrization we consider, consisting of present abundance and first redshift derivative of the energy density. We compare this study with results obtained using the forecasted lensing potential measurement precision from CMB satellite observations, finding consistent results.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication by JCAP. Modified version after the referee's comment

No evidence for extensions to the standard cosmological model

CITATION: Heavens, A., et al. 2017. No evidence for extensions to the standard cosmological model. Physical Review Letters, 119(10):1-5, doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.119.101301.The original publication is available at https://journals.aps.org/prlWe compute the Bayesian evidence for models considered in the main analysis of Planck cosmic microwave background data. By utilizing carefully defined nearest-neighbor distances in parameter space, we reuse the Monte Carlo Markov chains already produced for parameter inference to compute Bayes factors B for many different model-data set combinations. The standard 6-parameter flat cold dark matter model with a cosmological constant (ΛCDM) is favored over all other models considered, with curvature being mildly favored only when cosmic microwave background lensing is not included. Many alternative models are strongly disfavored by the data, including primordial correlated isocurvature models (lnB=−7.8), nonzero scalar-to-tensor ratio (lnB=−4.3), running of the spectral index (lnB=−4.7), curvature (lnB=−3.6), nonstandard numbers of neutrinos (lnB=−3.1), nonstandard neutrino masses (lnB=−3.2), nonstandard lensing potential (lnB=−4.6), evolving dark energy (lnB=−3.2), sterile neutrinos (lnB=−6.9), and extra sterile neutrinos with a nonzero scalar-to-tensor ratio (lnB=−10.8). Other models are less strongly disfavored with respect to flat ΛCDM. As with all analyses based on Bayesian evidence, the final numbers depend on the widths of the parameter priors. We adopt the priors used in the Planck analysis, while performing a prior sensitivity analysis. Our quantitative conclusion is that extensions beyond the standard cosmological model are disfavored by Planck data. Only when newer Hubble constant measurements are included does ΛCDM become disfavored, and only mildly, compared with a dynamical dark energy model (lnB∼+2).Publisher's versio