An economic way of reducing health, environmental, and other pressures of urban traffic: a decision analysis on trip aggregation

BACKGROUND: Traffic congestion is rapidly becoming the most important obstacle to urban development. In addition, traffic creates major health, environmental, and economical problems. Nonetheless, automobiles are crucial for the functions of the modern society. Most proposals for sustainable traffic solutions face major political opposition, economical consequences, or technical problems. METHODS: We performed a decision analysis in a poorly studied area, trip aggregation, and studied decisions from the perspective of two different stakeholders, the passenger and society. We modelled the impact and potential of composite traffic, a hypothetical large-scale demand-responsive public transport system for the Helsinki metropolitan area, where a centralised system would collect the information on all trip demands online, would merge the trips with the same origin and destination into public vehicles with eight or four seats, and then would transmit the trip instructions to the passengers' mobile phones. RESULTS: We show here that in an urban area with one million inhabitants, trip aggregation could reduce the health, environmental, and other detrimental impacts of car traffic typically by 50–70%, and if implemented could attract about half of the car passengers, and within a broad operational range would require no public subsidies. CONCLUSION: Composite traffic provides new degrees of freedom in urban decision-making in identifying novel solutions to the problems of urban traffic

Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM_2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful assessment, while complicated lag estimates can be omitted without this having any major effect on the results.</p

Turning 16 : documentation

Some text in FrenchTurning sixteen is an eight-part television series that takes viewers around the world to discover the values and concerns of today's youth

Turning 16 : India; episode 7

Narrator: M. CamachoFrench version available in IDRC Digital Library: Avoir 16 ans : Inde; épisode

Turning 16 : Egypt; episode 4

Narrator: M. CamachoFrench version available in IDRC Digital Library: Avoir 16 ans : Egypte; épisode

Avoir 16 ans : conclusion; épisode 8

Narrateur: G. CharlesVersion anglaise disponible dans la Bibliothèque numérique du CRDI : Turning 16 : conclusion; episode

Avoir 16 ans : Egypte; épisode 4

Narrateur: G. CharlesVersion anglaise disponible dans la Bibliothèque numérique du CRDI : Turning 16 : Egypt; episode