The Party\u27s Over: The Role of Earnings Guidance in Resolving Sentiment-Driven Overvaluation

This paper shows that an important link between investor sentiment and firm overvaluation is optimistic earnings expectations, and that management earnings guidance helps resolve sentiment-driven overvaluation. Using previously identified firm characteristics, we find that most of the negative returns to uncertain firms in months following high-sentiment periods fall within the three-day window around the issuance of management earnings guidance. Comparisons of guidance months to nonguidance months show that guidance issuance affects the magnitude and not just the daily distribution of negative returns. There is also some evidence of negative returns around earnings announcements for firms that previously issued guidance, suggesting that guidance does not entirely correct optimistic earnings expectations. To provide additional insight into the strength of the guidance effect, we show that the market reacts more strongly to surprises, particularly negative surprises, following high-sentiment periods. Finally, firms with higher transient institutional ownership are less likely to guide, and their guidance is less likely to contain bad news following high-sentiment periods, indicating that managers with a short-term focus are hesitant to correct optimistic market expectations

Capital Market Consequences of Managers' Voluntary Disclosure Styles

This paper studies the capital market consequences of managers establishing an individual forecasting style. Using a manager-firm matched panel dataset, I examine whether and when manager-specific credibility matters. If managers\u27 forecasting styles affect their perceived credibility, then the stock price reaction to forecast news should increase with managers\u27 prior forecasting accuracy. Consistent with this prediction, I find that the stock price reaction to management forecast news is stronger when information uncertainty is high and when the manager has a history of issuing more accurate forecasts, indicating that individual managers benefit from establishing a personal disclosure reputation

Structure-based classification of tauopathies

Ordered assembly of tau protein into filaments characterizes multiple neurodegenerative diseases, which are called tauopathies. We previously reported that by electron cryo-microscopy (cryo-EM), tau filament structures from Alzheimer’s disease (1,2), Pick’s disease (3), chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) (4) and corticobasal degeneration (CBD) (5) are distinct. Here we show that the structures of tau filaments from progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) define a novel three-layered fold. Moreover, the tau filament structures from globular glial tauopathy (GGT) are similar to those from PSP. The tau filament fold of argyrophilic grain disease (AGD) differs from the above and resembles the four-layered CBD fold. The AGD fold is also observed in aging-related tau astrogliopathy (ARTAG). Tau protofilament structures from inherited cases with mutations +3 or +16 in intron 10 of MAPT, the microtubule-associated protein tau gene, are also identical to those from AGD, suggesting that relative overproduction of four-repeat tau can give rise to the AGD fold. Finally, tau filament structures from cases of familial British dementia (FBD) and familial Danish dementia (FDD) are the same as those from Alzheimer’s disease and primary age-related tauopathy (PART). These findings suggest a hierarchical classification of tauopathies based on their filament folds, which complements clinical diagnosis and neuropathology, and allows identification of new entities, as we show for a case diagnosed as PSP, but with filament structures that are intermediate between those of GGT and PSP

Polymorphisms in the Estrogen Receptor 1 and Vitamin C and Matrix Metalloproteinase Gene Families Are Associated with Susceptibility to Lymphoma

BACKGROUND: Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is the fifth most common cancer in the U.S. and few causes have been identified. Genetic association studies may help identify environmental risk factors and enhance our understanding of disease mechanisms. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 768 coding and haplotype tagging SNPs in 146 genes were examined using Illumina GoldenGate technology in a large population-based case-control study of NHL in the San Francisco Bay Area (1,292 cases 1,375 controls are included here). Statistical analyses were restricted to HIV- participants of white non-Hispanic origin. Genes involved in steroidogenesis, immune function, cell signaling, sunlight exposure, xenobiotic metabolism/oxidative stress, energy balance, and uptake and metabolism of cholesterol, folate and vitamin C were investigated. Sixteen SNPs in eight pathways and nine haplotypes were associated with NHL after correction for multiple testing at the adjusted q<0.10 level. Eight SNPs were tested in an independent case-control study of lymphoma in Germany (494 NHL cases and 494 matched controls). Novel associations with common variants in estrogen receptor 1 (ESR1) and in the vitamin C receptor and matrix metalloproteinase gene families were observed. Four ESR1 SNPs were associated with follicular lymphoma (FL) in the U.S. study, with rs3020314 remaining associated with reduced risk of FL after multiple testing adjustments [odds ratio (OR) = 0.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.23-0.77) and replication in the German study (OR = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.06-0.94). Several SNPs and haplotypes in the matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP3) and MMP9 genes and in the vitamin C receptor genes, solute carrier family 23 member 1 (SLC23A1) and SLC23A2, showed associations with NHL risk. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings suggest a role for estrogen, vitamin C and matrix metalloproteinases in the pathogenesis of NHL that will require further validation