Growth of Velocity Dispersions for Collapsing Spherical Stellar Systems

First, we have ensured that spherical nonrotating collisionless systems collapse with almost retaining spherical configurations during initial contraction phases even if they are allowed to collapse three-dimensionally. Next, on the assumption of spherical symmetry, we examine the evolution of velocity dispersions with collapse for the systems which have uniform or power-law density profiles with Maxwellian velocity distributions by integrating the collisionless Boltzmann equation directly. The results show that as far as the initial contraction phases are concerned, the radial velocity dispersion never grows faster than the tangential velocity dispersion except at small radii where the nearly isothermal nature remains, irrespective of the density profiles and virial ratios. This implies that velocity anisotropy as an initial condition should be a poor indicator for the radial orbit instability. The growing behavior of the velocity dispersions is briefly discussed from the viewpoint that phase space density is conserved in collisionless systems.Comment: 12 pages, including 5 postscript figures. This preprint is also available at http://www.kcua.ac.jp/~fujiwara/e-prints/e-prints.html Submitted to Publ.Astron.Soc.Japa

Microlensing optical depth towards the Galactic bulge from MOA observations during 2000 with Difference Image Analysis

We analyze the data of the gravitational microlensing survey carried out by by the MOA group during 2000 towards the Galactic Bulge (GB). Our observations are designed to detect efficiently high magnification events with faint source stars and short timescale events, by increasing the the sampling rate up to 6 times per night and using Difference Image Analysis (DIA). We detect 28 microlensing candidates in 12 GB fields corresponding to 16 deg^2. We use Monte Carlo simulations to estimate our microlensing event detection efficiency, where we construct the I-band extinction map of our GB fields in order to find dereddened magnitudes. We find a systematic bias and large uncertainty in the measured value of the timescale $t_{\rm Eout}$ in our simulations. They are associated with blending and unresolved sources, and are allowed for in our measurements. We compute an optical depth tau = 2.59_{-0.64}^{+0.84} \times 10^{-6} towards the GB for events with timescales 0.3<t_E<200 days. We consider disk-disk lensing, and obtain an optical depth tau_{bulge} = 3.36_{-0.81}^{+1.11} \times 10^{-6}[0.77/(1-f_{disk})] for the bulge component assuming a 23% stellar contribution from disk stars. These observed optical depths are consistent with previous measurements by the MACHO and OGLE groups, and still higher than those predicted by existing Galactic models. We present the timescale distribution of the observed events, and find there are no significant short events of a few days, in spite of our high detection efficiency for short timescale events down to t_E = 0.3 days. We find that half of all our detected events have high magnification (>10). These events are useful for studies of extra-solar planets.Comment: 65 pages and 30 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ. A systematic bias and uncertainty in the optical depth measurement has been quantified by simulation

Study of variable stars in the MOA data base: long-period red variables in the Large Magellanic Cloud

One hundred and forty six long-period red variable stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) from the three year MOA project database were analysed. A careful periodic analysis was performed on these stars and a catalogue of their magnitudes, colours, periods and amplitudes is presented. We convert our blue and red magnitudes to $K$ band values using 19 oxygen-rich stars. A group of red short-period stars separated from the Mira sequence has been found on a (log P, K) diagram. They are located at the short period side of the Mira sequence consistent with the work of Wood and Sebo (1996). There are two interpretations for such stars; a difference in pulsation mode or a difference in chemical composition. We investigated the properties of these stars together with their colour, amplitude and periodicity. We conclude that they have small amplitudes and less regular variability. They are likely to be higher mode pulsators. A large scatter has been also found on the long period side of the (log P, K) diagram. This is possibly a systematic spread given that the blue band of our photometric system covers both standard B and V bands and affects carbon-rich stars.Comment: 19 pages, 19 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

VERA Observation of the W49N H2O Maser Outburst in 2003 October

We report on a strong outburst of the W49N H2O maser observed with VERA. Single-dish monitoring with VERA 20 m telescopes detected a strong outburst of the maser feature at V_LSR = -30.7 km/s in 2003 October. The outburst had a duration of ~100 days and a peak intensity of 7.9 x 10^4 Jy, being one of the strongest outbursts in W49N observed so far. VLBI observations with the VERA array were also carried out near to the maximum phase of the outburst, and the outburst spot was identified in the VLBI map. While the map was in good agreement with previous studies, showing three major concentrations of maser spots, we found a newly formed arc-like structure in the central maser concentration, which may be a shock front powered by a forming star or a star cluster. The outburst spot was found to be located on the arc-like structure, indicating a possible connection of the present outburst to a shock phenomenon.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures included, to appear in PASJ letter (Vol.56, #3, 2004 June

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation