36 research outputs found
Time series prediction via aggregation : an oracle bound including numerical cost
We address the problem of forecasting a time series meeting the Causal
Bernoulli Shift model, using a parametric set of predictors. The aggregation
technique provides a predictor with well established and quite satisfying
theoretical properties expressed by an oracle inequality for the prediction
risk. The numerical computation of the aggregated predictor usually relies on a
Markov chain Monte Carlo method whose convergence should be evaluated. In
particular, it is crucial to bound the number of simulations needed to achieve
a numerical precision of the same order as the prediction risk. In this
direction we present a fairly general result which can be seen as an oracle
inequality including the numerical cost of the predictor computation. The
numerical cost appears by letting the oracle inequality depend on the number of
simulations required in the Monte Carlo approximation. Some numerical
experiments are then carried out to support our findings
Interacting Multiple Try Algorithms with Different Proposal Distributions
We propose a new class of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
algorithms designed for increasing the efficiency of a modified multiple-try
Metropolis (MTM) algorithm. The extension with respect to the existing MCMC
literature is twofold. The sampler proposed extends the basic MTM algorithm by
allowing different proposal distributions in the multiple-try generation step.
We exploit the structure of the MTM algorithm with different proposal
distributions to naturally introduce an interacting MTM mechanism (IMTM) that
expands the class of population Monte Carlo methods. We show the validity of
the algorithm and discuss the choice of the selection weights and of the
different proposals. We provide numerical studies which show that the new
algorithm can perform better than the basic MTM algorithm and that the
interaction mechanism allows the IMTM to efficiently explore the state space
An Adaptive Interacting Wang-Landau Algorithm for Automatic Density Exploration
While statisticians are well-accustomed to performing exploratory analysis in
the modeling stage of an analysis, the notion of conducting preliminary
general-purpose exploratory analysis in the Monte Carlo stage (or more
generally, the model-fitting stage) of an analysis is an area which we feel
deserves much further attention. Towards this aim, this paper proposes a
general-purpose algorithm for automatic density exploration. The proposed
exploration algorithm combines and expands upon components from various
adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, with the Wang-Landau algorithm at
its heart. Additionally, the algorithm is run on interacting parallel chains --
a feature which both decreases computational cost as well as stabilizes the
algorithm, improving its ability to explore the density. Performance is studied
in several applications. Through a Bayesian variable selection example, the
authors demonstrate the convergence gains obtained with interacting chains. The
ability of the algorithm's adaptive proposal to induce mode-jumping is
illustrated through a trimodal density and a Bayesian mixture modeling
application. Lastly, through a 2D Ising model, the authors demonstrate the
ability of the algorithm to overcome the high correlations encountered in
spatial models.Comment: 33 pages, 20 figures (the supplementary materials are included as
appendices
Accelerating MCMC Algorithms
Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to simulate from complex
statistical distributions by way of a local exploration of these distributions.
This local feature avoids heavy requests on understanding the nature of the
target, but it also potentially induces a lengthy exploration of this target,
with a requirement on the number of simulations that grows with the dimension
of the problem and with the complexity of the data behind it. Several
techniques are available towards accelerating the convergence of these Monte
Carlo algorithms, either at the exploration level (as in tempering, Hamiltonian
Monte Carlo and partly deterministic methods) or at the exploitation level
(with Rao-Blackwellisation and scalable methods).Comment: This is a survey paper, submitted WIREs Computational Statistics, to
with 6 figure
On Russian Roulette estimates for Bayesian inference with doubly-intractable likelihoods
A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard inference techniques to sample from the posterior, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), cannot be used. Examples include, but are not confined to, massive Gaussian Markov random fields, autologistic models and Exponential random graph models. A number of approximate schemes based on MCMC techniques, Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) or analytic approximations to the posterior have been suggested, and these are reviewed here. Exact MCMC schemes, which can be applied to a subset of doubly-intractable distributions, have also been developed and are described in this paper. As yet, no general method exists which can be applied to all classes of models with doubly-intractable posteriors. In addition, taking inspiration from the Physics literature, we study an alternative method based on representing the intractable likelihood as an infinite series. Unbiased estimates of the likelihood can then be obtained by finite time stochastic truncation of the series via Russian Roulette sampling, although the estimates are not necessarily positive. Results from the Quantum Chromodynamics literature are exploited to allow the use of possibly negative estimates in a pseudo-marginal MCMC scheme such that expectations with respect to the posterior distribution are preserved. The methodology is reviewed on well-known examples such as the parameters in Ising models, the posterior for Fisher-Bingham distributions on the d-Sphere and a largescale Gaussian Markov Random Field model describing the Ozone Column data. This leads to a critical assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology with pointers to ongoing research
On Russian Roulette estimates for Bayesian inference with doubly-intractable likelihoods
A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard inference techniques to sample from the posterior, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), cannot be used. Examples include, but are not confined to, massive Gaussian Markov random fields, autologistic models and Exponential random graph models. A number of approximate schemes based on MCMC techniques, Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) or analytic approximations to the posterior have been suggested, and these are reviewed here. Exact MCMC schemes, which can be applied to a subset of doubly-intractable distributions, have also been developed and are described in this paper. As yet, no general method exists which can be applied to all classes of models with doubly-intractable posteriors. In addition, taking inspiration from the Physics literature, we study an alternative method based on representing the intractable likelihood as an infinite series. Unbiased estimates of the likelihood can then be obtained by finite time stochastic truncation of the series via Russian Roulette sampling, although the estimates are not necessarily positive. Results from the Quantum Chromodynamics literature are exploited to allow the use of possibly negative estimates in a pseudo-marginal MCMC scheme such that expectations with respect to the posterior distribution are preserved. The methodology is reviewed on well-known examples such as the parameters in Ising models, the posterior for Fisher-Bingham distributions on the d-Sphere and a largescale Gaussian Markov Random Field model describing the Ozone Column data. This leads to a critical assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology with pointers to ongoing research