Policy compass: FCM-based policy impact evaluation using public open data

This paper presents how Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique can be applied by a policy maker to support the policy impact evaluation using the example of Policy Compass, an EU research project. The practical usage example on interest rate policy shows the potential of FCMs as a policy impact modelling tool. Through the provision of a more intuitive and easier means of using open data based on FCM techniques, the Policy Compass project can play a critical role for both policy maker and lay public to evaluate the policy impact and prepare for future policy making

L2L_2 boosting in kernel regression

In this paper, we investigate the theoretical and empirical properties of $L_2$ boosting with kernel regression estimates as weak learners. We show that each step of $L_2$ boosting reduces the bias of the estimate by two orders of magnitude, while it does not deteriorate the order of the variance. We illustrate the theoretical findings by some simulated examples. Also, we demonstrate that $L_2$ boosting is superior to the use of higher-order kernels, which is a well-known method of reducing the bias of the kernel estimate.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/08-BEJ160 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Generalised additive dependency inflated models including aggregated covariates

Let us assume that X, Y and U are observed and that the conditional mean of U given X and Y can be expressed via an additive dependency of X, λ(X)Y and X + Y for some unspecified function . This structured regression model can be transferred to a hazard model or a density model when applied on some appropriate grid, and has important forecasting applications via structured marker dependent hazards models or structured density models including age-period-cohort relationships. The structured regression model is also important when the severity of the dependent variable has a complicated dependency on waiting times X, Y and the total waiting time X+Y . In case the conditional mean of U approximates a density, the regression model can be used to analyse the age-period-cohort model, also when exposure data are not available. In case the conditional mean of U approximates a marker dependent hazard, the regression model introduces new relevant age-period-cohort time scale interdependencies in understanding longevity. A direct use of the regression relationship introduced in this paper is the estimation of the severity of outstanding liabilities in non-life insurance companies. The technical approach taken is to use B-splines to capture the underlying one-dimensional unspecified functions. It is shown via finite sample simulation studies and an application for forecasting future asbestos related deaths in the UK that the B-spline approach works well in practice. Special consideration has been given to ensure identifiability of all models considered

Pseudo-binary phase diagram for Zr-based in situ ß phase composites

The pseudo-binary (quasi-equilibrium) phase diagram for Zr-based bulk metallic glasses with crystalline in situ precipitates (ß phase) has been constructed from high-temperature phase information and chemical composition analysis. The phase evolution was detected in situ by high-energy synchrotron x-ray diffraction followed by Rietveld analysis of the data for volume fraction estimation. The phase diagram delineates phase fields and allows the control of phase fractions. Combined with related previous work by the authors, this diagram offers a unique opportunity to control both the morphology and volume of the dendritic ß phase precipitates to enhance the properties of the composites

Effect of sintering temperature under high pressure in the uperconductivity for MgB2

We report the effect of the sintering temperature on the superconductivity of MgB2 pellets prepared under a high pressure of 3 GPa. The superconducting properties of the non-heated MgB2 in this high pressure were poor. However, as the sintering temperature increased, the superconducting properties were vastly enhanced, which was shown by the narrow transition width for the resistivity and the low-field magnetizations. This shows that heat treatment under high pressure is essential to improve superconducting properties. These changes were found to be closely related to changes in the surface morphology observed using scanning electron microscopy.Comment: 3 Pages including 3 figure

Gravitating monopoles in SU(3) gauge theory

We consider the Einstein-Yang-Mills-Higgs equations for an SU(3) gauge group in a spherically symmetric ansatz. Several properties of the gravitating monopole solutions are obtained an compared with their SU(2) counterpart.Comment: 7 pages, Latex, 3 figure

Seed-specific overexpression of the pyruvate transporter BASS2 increases oil content in Arabidopsis seeds

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Scaling and memory in the return intervals of energy dissipation rate in three-dimensional fully developed turbulence

We study the statistical properties of return intervals $r$ between successive energy dissipation rates above a certain threshold $Q$ in three-dimensional fully developed turbulence. We find that the distribution function $P_Q(r)$ scales with the mean return interval $R_Q$ as $P_Q(r)=R_Q^{-1}f(r/R_Q)$ except for $r=1$, where the scaling function $f(x)$ has two power-law regimes. The return intervals are short-term and long-term correlated and possess multifractal nature. The Hurst index of the return intervals decays exponentially against $R_Q$, predicting that rare extreme events with $R_Q\to\infty$ are also long-term correlated with the Hurst index $H_\infty=0.639$.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

New heat treatment to prepare high quality polycrystalline and single crystal MgB2 in single process

We report here on a new heat treatment to prepare both dense polycrystalline and single crystal MgB2 high quality samples in one single process. Resistivity measurements for polycrystalline part of the sample gives a residual resistivity ratio RRR=16.6 and a very low normal state resistivity rho(40K)= 0.28 microOhmcm. Both SEM and SQUID study on polycrystals reveal the high quality, dense character and well coupling of grain boundaries. On the other hand, the high quality single crystals have a unique shape that resembles the hexagonal crystal structure. SQUID measurements reveals very weak flux pinning character implying our single crystals to be very clean. In this study, we conclude that heat treatment is playing a major rule on the characteristics of both polycrystalline and single crystal MgB2. Samples are thoroughly characterized by x-ray, resistivity, dc SQUID and SEM