Analyse statistique du lien entre les variables d'aléa et les dommages par submersion

International audienceUne base de données de niveau de dommages consécutif à la submersion couvrant les 60 dernières années et focalisée sur la Grande Plage de Biarritz a été récemment élaborée. Cette base repose sur l'analyse d'archives et de documents de presse locaux. Parallèlement, une base de données de variables d'aléas couvrant la même période a également été constituée. Elle utilise des simulations numériques pour les vagues et une analyse harmonique pour les niveaux d'eau, validées par les observations disponibles sur site. Dans le présent article, nous détaillons l'analyse du lien statistique existant entre les deux bases de données. L'objectif est de trouver quelles variables d'aléa ou combinaison de variables expliquent le mieux l'occurrence de la submersion de la Grande Plage et la survenue de dommage. Les résultats préliminaires montrent que le couple flux maximum d'énergie des vagues et niveau d'eau maximum durant l'événement expliquent très bien les dommages répertoriés sur cette plage spécifique

Search for gravitational waves associated with the August 2006 timing glitch of the Vela pulsar

The physical mechanisms responsible for pulsar timing glitches are thought to excite quasinormal mode oscillations in their parent neutron star that couple to gravitational-wave emission. In August 2006, a timing glitch was observed in the radio emission of PSR B0833-45, the Vela pulsar. At the time of the glitch, the two colocated Hanford gravitational-wave detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational wave observatory (LIGO) were operational and taking data as part of the fifth LIGO science run (S5). We present the first direct search for the gravitational-wave emission associated with oscillations of the fundamental quadrupole mode excited by a pulsar timing glitch. No gravitational-wave detection candidate was found. We place Bayesian 90% confidence upper limits of 6.3 x 10^(-21) to 1.4 x 10^(-20) on the peak intrinsic strain amplitude of gravitational-wave ring-down signals, depending on which spherical harmonic mode is excited. The corresponding range of energy upper limits is 5.0 x 10^(-44) to 1.3 x 10^(-45) erg

A tapering window for time-domain templates and simulated signals in the detection of gravitational waves from coalescing compact binaries

Inspiral signals from binary black holes, in particular those with masses in the range 10M_\odot \lsim M \lsim 1000 M_\odot, may last for only a few cycles within a detector's most sensitive frequency band. The spectrum of a square-windowed time-domain signal could contain unwanted power that can cause problems in gravitational wave data analysis, particularly when the waveforms are of short duration. There may be leakage of power into frequency bins where no such power is expected, causing an excess of false alarms. We present a method of tapering the time-domain waveforms that significantly reduces unwanted leakage of power, leading to a spectrum that agrees very well with that of a long duration signal. Our tapered window also decreases the false alarms caused by instrumental and environmental transients that are picked up by templates with spurious signal power. The suppression of background is an important goal in noise-dominated searches and can lead to an improvement in the detection efficiency of the search algorithms

The next detectors for gravitational wave astronomy

This paper focuses on the next detectors for gravitational wave astronomy which will be required after the current ground based detectors have completed their initial observations, and probably achieved the first direct detection of gravitational waves. The next detectors will need to have greater sensitivity, while also enabling the world array of detectors to have improved angular resolution to allow localisation of signal sources. Sect. 1 of this paper begins by reviewing proposals for the next ground based detectors, and presents an analysis of the sensitivity of an 8 km armlength detector, which is proposed as a safe and cost-effective means to attain a 4-fold improvement in sensitivity. The scientific benefits of creating a pair of such detectors in China and Australia is emphasised. Sect. 2 of this paper discusses the high performance suspension systems for test masses that will be an essential component for future detectors, while sect. 3 discusses solutions to the problem of Newtonian noise which arise from fluctuations in gravity gradient forces acting on test masses. Such gravitational perturbations cannot be shielded, and set limits to low frequency sensitivity unless measured and suppressed. Sects. 4 and 5 address critical operational technologies that will be ongoing issues in future detectors. Sect. 4 addresses the design of thermal compensation systems needed in all high optical power interferometers operating at room temperature. Parametric instability control is addressed in sect. 5. Only recently proven to occur in Advanced LIGO, parametric instability phenomenon brings both risks and opportunities for future detectors. The path to future enhancements of detectors will come from quantum measurement technologies. Sect. 6 focuses on the use of optomechanical devices for obtaining enhanced sensitivity, while sect. 7 reviews a range of quantum measurement options

Connecting Numerical Relativity and Data Analysis of Gravitational Wave Detectors

Gravitational waves deliver information in exquisite detail about astrophysical phenomena, among them the collision of two black holes, a system completely invisible to the eyes of electromagnetic telescopes. Models that predict gravitational wave signals from likely sources are crucial for the success of this endeavor. Modeling binary black hole sources of gravitational radiation requires solving the Eintein equations of General Relativity using powerful computer hardware and sophisticated numerical algorithms. This proceeding presents where we are in understanding ground-based gravitational waves resulting from the merger of black holes and the implications of these sources for the advent of gravitational-wave astronomy.Comment: Appeared in the Proceedings of 2014 Sant Cugat Forum on Astrophysics. Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings, ed. C.Sopuerta (Berlin: Springer-Verlag

R-process enrichment from a single event in an ancient dwarf galaxy

Elements heavier than zinc are synthesized through the (r)apid and (s)low neutron-capture processes. The main site of production of the r-process elements (such as europium) has been debated for nearly 60 years. Initial studies of chemical abundance trends in old Milky Way halo stars suggested continual r-process production, in sites like core-collapse supernovae. But evidence from the local Universe favors r-process production mainly during rare events, such as neutron star mergers. The appearance of a europium abundance plateau in some dwarf spheroidal galaxies has been suggested as evidence for rare r-process enrichment in the early Universe, but only under the assumption of no gas accretion into the dwarf galaxies. Cosmologically motivated gas accretion favors continual r-process enrichment in these systems. Furthermore, the universal r-process pattern has not been cleanly identified in dwarf spheroidals. The smaller, chemically simpler, and more ancient ultra-faint dwarf galaxies assembled shortly after the first stars formed, and are ideal systems with which to study nucleosynthesis events such as the r-process. Reticulum II is one such galaxy. The abundances of non-neutron-capture elements in this galaxy (and others like it) are similar to those of other old stars. Here, we report that seven of nine stars in Reticulum II observed with high-resolution spectroscopy show strong enhancements in heavy neutron-capture elements, with abundances that follow the universal r-process pattern above barium. The enhancement in this "r-process galaxy" is 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than that detected in any other ultra-faint dwarf galaxy. This implies that a single rare event produced the r-process material in Reticulum II. The r-process yield and event rate are incompatible with ordinary core-collapse supernovae, but consistent with other possible sites, such as neutron star mergers.Comment: Published in Nature, 21 Mar 2016: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature1742

Astronomy and astrophysics with gravitational waves in the Advanced Detector Era

With the advanced gravitational wave detectors coming on line in the next 5 years, we expect to make the first detections of gravitational waves from astrophysical sources, and study the properties of the waves themselves as tests of General Relativity. In addition, these gravitational waves will be powerful tools for the study of their astrophysical sources and source populations. They carry information that is quite complementary to what can be learned from electromagnetic or neutrino observations, probing the central gravitational engines that power the electromagnetic emissions. Preparations are being made to enable near-simultaneous observations of both gravitational wave and electromagnetic observations of transient sources, using low-latency search pipelines and rapid sky localization. We will review the many opportunities for multi-messenger astronomy and astrophysics with gravitational waves enabled by the advanced detectors, and the preparations that are being made to quickly and fully exploit them.Comment: 10 pages, no figures. Submitted to the proceedings of the 9th Edoardo Amaldi Conference on Gravitational Waves, and the 2011 Numerical Relativity - Data Analysis (NRDA) meeting, held 10-15 July 2011 in Cardiff, Wales, UK, July 10-15 2011 (Special issue of CQG). Updated in response to CQG referees and CQG proofs. Accepted by CQ

Quantum-Dense Metrology

Quantum metrology utilizes entanglement for improving the sensitivity of measurements. Up to now the focus has been on the measurement of just one out of two non-commuting observables. Here we demonstrate a laser interferometer that provides information about two non-commuting observables, with uncertainties below that of the meter's quantum ground state. Our experiment is a proof-of-principle of quantum dense metrology, and uses the additional information to distinguish between the actual phase signal and a parasitic signal due to scattered and frequency shifted photons. Our approach can be readily applied to improve squeezed-light enhanced gravitational-wave detectors at non-quantum noise limited detection frequencies in terms of a sub shot-noise veto-channel.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures; includes supplementary material

Business experience and start-up size: buying more lottery tickets next time around?

This paper explores the determinants of start-up size by focusing on a cohort of 6247 businesses that started trading in 2004, using a unique dataset on customer records at Barclays Bank. Quantile regressions show that prior business experience is significantly related with start-up size, as are a number of other variables such as age, education and bank account activity. Quantile treatment effects (QTE) estimates show similar results, with the effect of business experience on (log) start-up size being roughly constant across the quantiles. Prior personal business experience leads to an increase in expected start-up size of about 50%. Instrumental variable QTE estimates are even higher, although there are concerns about the validity of the instrument