Group Network Hawkes Process

In this work, we study the event occurrences of individuals interacting in a network. To characterize the dynamic interactions among the individuals, we propose a group network Hawkes process (GNHP) model whose network structure is observed and fixed. In particular, we introduce a latent group structure among individuals to account for the heterogeneous user-specific characteristics. A maximum likelihood approach is proposed to simultaneously cluster individuals in the network and estimate model parameters. A fast EM algorithm is subsequently developed by utilizing the branching representation of the proposed GNHP model. Theoretical properties of the resulting estimators of group memberships and model parameters are investigated under both settings when the number of latent groups $G$ is over-specified or correctly specified. A data-driven criterion that can consistently identify the true $G$ under mild conditions is derived. Extensive simulation studies and an application to a data set collected from Sina Weibo are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.Comment: 35 page

Variations of deep soil moisture under different vegetation types and influencing factors in a watershed of the Loess Plateau, China

Soil moisture in deep soil layers is a relatively stable water resource for vegetation growth in the semi-arid Loess Plateau of China. Characterizing the variations in deep soil moisture and its influencing factors at a moderate watershed scale is important to ensure the sustainability of vegetation restoration efforts. In this study, we focus on analyzing the variations and factors that influence the deep soil moisture (DSM) in 80–500 cm soil layers based on a soil moisture survey of the Ansai watershed in Yan'an in Shanxi Province. Our results can be divided into four main findings. (1) At the watershed scale, higher variations in the DSM occurred at 120–140 and 480–500 cm in the vertical direction. At the comparable depths, the variation in the DSM under native vegetation was much lower than that in human-managed vegetation and introduced vegetation. (2) The DSM in native vegetation and human-managed vegetation was significantly higher than that in introduced vegetation, and different degrees of soil desiccation occurred under all the introduced vegetation types. Caragana korshinskii and black locust caused the most serious desiccation. (3) Taking the DSM conditions of native vegetation as a reference, the DSM in this watershed could be divided into three layers: (i) a rainfall transpiration layer (80–220 cm); (ii) a transition layer (220–400 cm); and (iii) a stable layer (400–500 cm). (4) The factors influencing DSM at the watershed scale varied with vegetation types. The main local controls of the DSM variations were the soil particle composition and mean annual rainfall; human agricultural management measures can alter the soil bulk density, which contributes to higher DSM in farmland and apple orchards. The plant growth conditions, planting density, and litter water holding capacity of introduced vegetation showed significant relationships with the DSM. The results of this study are of practical significance for vegetation restoration strategies, especially for the choice of vegetation types, planting zones, and proper human management measures

Soil Water Storage Changes within Deep Profiles under Introduced Shrubs during the Growing Season: Evidence from Semiarid Loess Plateau, China

Water stored deep in the soil profile is the primary bio-available reservoir for regional vegetation in the semiarid Loess Plateau of China. However, the planting of introduced shrubs over many years as part of the “Grain to Green Program (GGP)” has consistently lead to dried soil in areas with severe water scarcity. Knowledge of soil water storage (SWS) changes within deep profiles in water-deficient regions is critical for the sustainable development of vegetation restoration. Caragana korshinskii K. (CK) and Hippophae rhamnoides L. (HR) are widely planted in the Loess Plateau to control soil erosion. We selected these two shrubs for a study on variations in deep soil water (100–500 cm) and identified the main factors affecting deep soil water storage replenishment (SWSR) during their growing seasons. The results indicated that the mean SWS at 100–500 cm depth under HR was significantly higher than that under CK at both the beginning (352.74 mm for CK and 644.79 mm for HR) and end of the growing season (311.95 mm for CK and 529.05 mm for HR) (p < 0.01). In these ecosystems, SWS was only recharged below 340 cm under CK, which was due to vegetation characteristics. Under HR, however, soil water consumption exceeded recharge throughout the whole 100–500 cm profile. The SWSR at the 100–340 cm depth was mainly affected by sand content, which explained 28% of the variability of SWSR. At the 340–500 cm depth, the variability in SWSR was due to vegetation type. Therefore, expansion of the GGP should pay more attention to both soil water conditions and influencing factors, including appropriate vegetation selection and the altering of the microtopography

“What Kind of a Science is Sustainability Science?” An Evidence-Based Reexamination

Sustainability science (SS), rooted in multiple disciplines, has been developing rapidly during the last two decades and become a well-recognized new field of study. However, the “identity” of SS remains unclear. Therefore, this study was intended to help synthesize the key characteristics of SS by revisiting the question raised by the leading sustainability scientist, Robert Kates (2011): “What kind of a science is sustainability science?” Specifically, we reviewed the literature in SS, and developed a synthesis of definitions and core research questions of SS, using multiple methods including change-point detection, word cloud visualization, and content and thematic analyses. Our study has produced several main findings: (1) the development of SS exhibited an S-shaped growth pattern, with an exponential growth phase through to 2012, and a asymptotic development phase afterwards; (2) ten key elements from the existing definitions of SS were identified, of which understanding “human–environment interactions” and “use-inspired” were most prominent; and (3) sixteen core questions in SS were derived from the literature. We further proposed an eight-theme framework of SS to help understand how the sixteen questions are related to each other. We argue that SS is coming of age, but more integrative and concerted efforts are still needed to further consolidate its identity by developing a coherent and rigorous scientific core

Mapping Ecosystem Service Supply–Demand Bundles for an Integrated Analysis of Tradeoffs in an Urban Agglomeration of China

Ecosystem service (ES) bundles are widely used approaches to analyze ES tradeoffs in urban agglomeration. However, few ES bundle studies considered both the supply and demand sided. The objective of this study was to map ES supply–demand bundles to comprehensively analyze the ES tradeoffs in the Yangtze River Delta using cluster analysis, correlation analysis, hotspot analysis, and principal component analysis. We found that: (1) Both the supply and demand of ES are unevenly distributed with highly spatial autocorrelation. (2) There are significant tradeoffs and synergies between ES in terms of supply–supply, demand–demand, and supply–demand. (3) Four ES supply–demand bundle types were identified with distinct ES supply and demand relationships. (4) Land-use types, urban intensity, and climatic factors are the main social-ecological factors that distinguish the four identified clusters. The identified ES supply–demand clusters can support the main functional zoning of the Yangtze River Delta. Our results also suggest that land sharing is a more appropriate approach for the sustainable development of the Yangtze River Delta considering the balance of multiple ES supply and ES demand

Spatial Variations of Soil Moisture under Caragana korshinskii Kom. from Different Precipitation Zones: Field Based Analysis in the Loess Plateau, China

Soil moisture scarcity has become the major limiting factor of vegetation restoration in the Loess Plateau of China. The aim of this study is: (i) to compare the spatial distribution of deep (up to 5 m) soil moisture content (SMC) beneath the introduced shrub Caragana korshinskii Kom. under different precipitation zones in the Loess Plateau and (ii) to investigate the impacts of environmental factors on soil moisture variability. Soil samples were taken under C. korshinskii from three precipitation zones (Semiarid-350, Semiarid-410, Semiarid-470). We found that the highest soil moisture value was in the 0–0.1 m layer with a large coefficient of variation. The soil water storage under different precipitation zones increased following the increase of precipitation (i.e., Semiarid-350 < Semiarid-410 < Semiarid-470), although the degree of SMC variation was different for different precipitation zones. The SMC in the Semiarid-350 zone initially increased with soil depth, and then decreased until it reached the depth of 2.8-m. The SMC in the Semiarid-410 zone showed a decreasing trend from the top soil to 4.2-m depth. The SMC in the Semiarid-470 zone firstly decreased with soil depth, increased, and then decreased until it reached 4.6-m depth. All SMC values then became relatively constant after reaching the 2.8-m, 4.2-m, and 4.6-m depths for Semiarid-350, Semiarid-410, and Semiarid-470, respectively. The low but similar SMC values at the stable layers across the precipitation gradient indicate widespread soil desiccation in this region. Our results suggested that water deficit occurred in all of the three precipitation zones with precipitation, latitude, field capacity, and bulk density as the main environmental variables affecting soil moisture. Considering the correlations between precipitation, SMC and vegetation, appropriate planting density and species selection should be taken into account for introduced vegetation management

Distribution of Shrubland and Grassland Soil Erodibility on the Loess Plateau

Soil erosion is one of the most severe problems facing environments and has increased throughout the 20th century. Soil erodibility (K-factor) is one of the important indicators of land degradation, and many models have been used to estimate K values. Although soil erodibility has been estimated, the comparison of different models and their usage at a regional scale and, in particular, for different land use types, need more research. Four of the most widely distributed land use types were selected to analyze, including introduced and natural grassland, as well as introduced and natural shrubland. Soil particle size, soil organic matter and other relevant soil properties were measured to estimate soil erodibility in the Loess Plateau. The results show that: (1) the erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) model and SHIRAZI model are both suitable for the Loess Plateau, while the SHIRAZI model has the advantage of fewer parameters; (2) introduced grassland has better ability to protect both the 0–5 cm soils and 5–20 cm soils, while the differences between introduced and natural shrubland are not obvious at a catchment scale; (3) the K values of introduced grassland, natural grassland, introduced shrubland and natural shrubland in the 0–5 cm layer vary from 0.008 to 0.037, 0.031 to 0.046, 0.012 to 0.041 and 0.008 to 0.045 (t·hm2·h/(MJ·mm·hm2)), while the values vary from 0.009 to 0.039, 0.032 to 0.046, 0.012 to 0.042 and 0.008 to 0.048 (t·hm2·h/(MJ·mm·hm2)) in the 5–20 cm layer. The areas with a mean multiyear precipitation of 370–440 mm are the most important places for vegetation restoration construction management at a regional scale. A comprehensive balance between water conservation and soil conservation is needed and important when selecting the species used to vegetation restoration. This study provides suggestions for ecological restoration and provides a case study for the estimate of soil erodibility in arid and semiarid areas

Linear and non-linear dynamics of ecosystem services supply, demand, and mismatches across a rapidly urbanizing region

Achieving the sustainability of coupled human-nature systems requires matching the ecosystem services (ES) provided by nature to the needs of society. However, most of the current studies on ES supply–demand relationships focus on spatial mismatches and rarely consider their temporal dynamics. In this study, the year-by-year dynamics (2001–2020) of 12 ESs at multiple spatial scales were investigated by using space–time interaction (STI) analysis, fuzzy C-mean clustering, and emerging hotspot analysis. We found that (1) three forms of temporal dynamics of ES indicators can be identified, including linear dynamics, fluctuating dynamics, and regime shift dynamics. (2) Temporal dynamic patterns of the same ES were not consistent across all counties, showing great spatial heterogeneity. The temporal dynamics of each ES type at each county were spatially explicitly clustered into linear dynamics, fluctuating dynamics, and regime shift dynamics with different means. (3) The ES supply–demand relationships can shift between supply–demand balance, excess supply, and excess demand when the temporal dynamics of ES supply do not match with that of ES demand. Our results suggest that temporal dynamic analysis in ecological restoration effectiveness assessment can help to avoid erroneous results compared to considering only pre- and post-policy ES changes. The identified emerging hotspots of excess supply and excess demand can help decision-makers more accurately identify priority locations for management

Analysis of Multi-Scale Changes in Arable Land and Scale Effects of the Driving Factors in the Loess Areas in Northern Shaanxi, China

In this study, statistical data on the national economic and social development, including the year-end actual area of arable land, the crop yield per unit area and 10 factors, were obtained for the period between 1980 and 2010 and used to analyze the factors driving changes in the arable land of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi, China. The following areas of arable land, which represent different spatial scales, were investigated: the Baota District, the city of Yan’an, and the Northern Shaanxi region. The scale effects of the factors driving the changes to the arable land were analyzed using a canonical correlation analysis and a principal component analysis. Because it was difficult to quantify the impact of the national government policies on the arable land changes, the contributions of the national government policies to the changes in arable land were analyzed qualitatively. The primary conclusions of the study were as follows: between 1980 and 2010, the arable land area decreased. The trends of the year-end actual arable land proportion of the total area in the northern Shaanxi region and Yan’an City were broadly consistent, whereas the proportion in the Baota District had no obvious similarity with the northern Shaanxi region and Yan’an City. Remarkably different factors were shown to influence the changes in the arable land at different scales. Environmental factors exerted a greater effect for smaller scale arable land areas (the Baota District). The effect of socio-economic development was a major driving factor for the changes in the arable land area at the city and regional scales. At smaller scales, population change, urbanization and socio-economic development affected the crop yield per unit area either directly or indirectly. Socio-economic development and the modernization of agricultural technology had a greater effect on the crop yield per unit area at the large-scales. Furthermore, the qualitative analysis indicated that government policies had a more significant impact on the large-scale arable land areas

Identification of Key Areas for Ecosystem Restoration Based on Ecological Security Pattern

Ecosystem degradation and conversion are leading to a widespread reduction in the provision of ecosystem services. It is crucial for the governance of regional land spaces to rapidly identify key areas for ecosystem restoration. Herein, we combined the InVEST Habitat Quality Model with the granularity inverse method to identify ecological sources in Jiashi county, China, based on the “source-corridor” ecological security pattern paradigm. The minimum cumulative resistance model and circuit theory were adopted to diagnose the ecological “pinch points”, barrier points, break points, and key restoration areas for land space. Our results show that: (1) the area of the ecological source and the total length of the ecological corridor were identified as 1331.13 km2 and 316.30 km, respectively; (2) there were 164 key ecological “pinch points” and 69 key ecological barrier points in Jiashi county, with areas of 15.13 km2 and 14.57 km2, respectively. Based on the above ecological security pattern, recovery strategies are put forward to improve regional ecosystem health. This study describes the best practices which can be used to guide the planning and implementation of ecosystem restoration at the local landscape scale