The Predictive Content of Aggregate Analyst Recommendations

Using more than 350,000 sell-side analyst recommendations from January 1994 to August 2006, this paper examines the predictive content of aggregate analyst recommendations. We find that changes in aggregate analyst recommendations forecast future market excess returns after controlling for macroeconomic variables that have been shown to influence market returns. Similarly, changes in industry-aggregated analyst recommendations predict future industry returns. Changes in aggregate analyst recommendations also predict one-quarter-ahead aggregate earnings growth. Overall, our results suggest that analyst recommendations contain market- and industry-level information about future returns and earnings

Aggregate Interference Modeling in Cognitive Radio Networks with Power and Contention Control

In this paper, we present an interference model for cognitive radio (CR) networks employing power control, contention control or hybrid power/contention control schemes. For the first case, a power control scheme is proposed to govern the transmission power of a CR node. For the second one, a contention control scheme at the media access control (MAC) layer, based on carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance (CSMA/CA), is proposed to coordinate the operation of CR nodes with transmission requests. The probability density functions of the interference received at a primary receiver from a CR network are first derived numerically for these two cases. For the hybrid case, where power and contention controls are jointly adopted by a CR node to govern its transmission, the interference is analyzed and compared with that of the first two schemes by simulations. Then, the interference distributions under the first two control schemes are fitted by log-normal distributions with greatly reduced complexity. Moreover, the effect of a hidden primary receiver on the interference experienced at the receiver is investigated. It is demonstrated that both power and contention controls are effective approaches to alleviate the interference caused by CR networks. Some in-depth analysis of the impact of key parameters on the interference of CR networks is given via numerical studies as well.Comment: 24 pages, 8 figures, submitted to IEEE Trans. Communications in July 201

The impact of helminth-induced immunity on infection with bacteria or viruses

Different human and animal pathogens trigger distinct immune responses in their hosts. The infection of bacteria or viruses can trigger type I pro-inflammatory immune responses (e.g., IFN-γ, TNF-α,

Two distinct classes of QTL determine rust resistance in sorghum

Background: Agriculture is facing enormous challenges to feed a growing population in the face of rapidly evolving pests and pathogens. The rusts, in particular, are a major pathogen of cereal crops with the potential to cause large reductions in yield. Improving stable disease resistance is an on-going major and challenging focus for many plant breeding programs, due to the rapidly evolving nature of the pathogen. Sorghum is a major summer cereal crop that is also a host for a rust pathogen which occurs in almost all sorghum growing areas of the world, causing direct and indirect yield losses in sorghum worldwide, however knowledge about its genetic control is still limited. In order to further investigate this issue, QTL and association mapping methods were implemented to study rust resistance in three bi-parental populations and an association mapping set of elite breeding lines in different environments. Results: In total, 64 significant or highly significant QTL and 21 suggestive rust resistance QTL were identified representing 55 unique genomic regions. Comparisons across populations within the current study and with rust QTL identified previously in both sorghum and maize revealed a high degree of correspondence in QTL location. Negative phenotypic correlations were observed between rust, maturity and height, indicating a trend for both early maturing and shorter genotypes to be more susceptible to rust. Conclusions: The significant amount of QTL co-location across traits, in addition to the consistency in the direction of QTL allele effects, has provided evidence to support pleiotropic QTL action across rust, height, maturity and stay-green, supporting the role of carbon stress in susceptibility to rust. Classical rust resistance QTL regions that did not co-locate with height, maturity or stay-green QTL were found to be significantly enriched for the defence-related NBS-encoding gene family, in contrast to the lack of defence-related gene enrichment in multi-trait effect rust resistance QTL. The distinction of disease resistance QTL hot-spots, enriched with defence-related gene families from QTL which impact on development and partitioning, provides plant breeders with knowledge which will allow for fast-tracking varieties with both durable pathogen resistance and appropriate adaptive traits

Spot form of net blotch resistance in barley is under complex genetic control

Key message: Evaluation of resistance toPyrenophora teresf.maculatain barley breeding populations via association mapping revealed a complex genetic architecture comprising a mixture of major and minor effect genes. Abstract: In the search for stable resistance to spot form of net blotch (Pyrenophora teres f. maculata, SFNB), association mapping was conducted on four independent barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) breeding populations comprising a total of 898 unique elite breeding lines from the Northern Region Barley Breeding Program in Australia for discovery of quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing resistance at seedling and adult plant growth stages. A total of 29 significant QTL were validated across multiple breeding populations, with 22 conferring resistance at both seedling and adult plant growth stages. The remaining 7 QTL conferred resistance at either seedling (2 QTL) or adult plant (5 QTL) growth stages only. These 29 QTL represented 24 unique genomic regions, of which five were found to co-locate with previously identified QTL for SFNB. The results indicated that SFNB resistance is controlled by a large number of QTL varying in effect size with large effects QTL on chromosome 7H. A large proportion of the QTL acted in the same direction for both seedling and adult responses, suggesting that phenotypic selection for SFNB resistance performed at either growth stage could achieve adequate levels of resistance. However, the accumulation of specific resistance alleles on several chromosomes must be considered in molecular breeding selection strategies

In-medium relativistic kinetic theory and nucleon-meson systems

Within the $\sigma-\omega$ model of coupled nucleon-meson systems, a generalized relativistic Lenard--Balescu--equation is presented resulting from a relativistic random phase approximation (RRPA). This provides a systematic derivation of relativistic transport equations in the frame of nonequilibrium Green's function technique including medium effects as well as flucuation effects. It contains all possible processes due to one meson exchange and special attention is kept to the off--shell character of the particles. As a new feature of many particle effects, processes are possible which can be interpreted as particle creation and annihilation due to in-medium one meson exchange. In-medium cross sections are obtained from the generalized derivation of collision integrals, which possess complete crossing symmetries.Comment: See nucl-th/9310032 for revised version which the authors incompetently resubmitted rather than correctly replacing thi

Gel stent versus trabeculectomy: The randomized, multicenter, Gold-Standard Pathway Study (GPS) of effectiveness and safety at 12 months

PURPOSE: To compare effectiveness and safety of the gel stent to trabeculectomy in open-angle glaucoma (OAG). DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, multicenter, noninferiority study. METHODS: Patients with OAG and intraocular pressure (IOP) 15 to 44 mm Hg on topical IOP-lowering medication were randomized 2:1 to gel stent implantation or trabeculectomy. Primary end point (surgical success): percentage of patients at month 12 achieving ≥20% IOP reduction from baseline without medication increase, clinical hypotony, vision loss to counting fingers, or secondary surgical intervention (SSI) in a noninferiority test with 24% margins. Secondary end points (month 12) included mean IOP and medication count, postoperative intervention rate, visual recovery, and patient-reported outcomes (PROs). Safety end points included adverse events (AEs). RESULTS: At month 12, the gel stent was statistically noninferior to trabeculectomy (between-treatment difference [Δ], -6.1%; 95% CI, -22.9%, 10.8%); 62.1% and 68.2% achieved the primary end point, respectively (P=.487); mean IOP and medication count reductions from baseline were significant (P\u3c.001); and the IOP change-related Δ (2.8 mm Hg) favored trabeculectomy (P=.024). The gel stent resulted in fewer eyes requiring in-office postoperative interventions (P=.024 after excluding laser suture lysis), faster visual recovery (P≤.048), and greater 6-month improvements in visual function problems (ie, PROs; P≤.022). The most common AEs were reduced visual acuity at any time (gel stent, 38.9%; trabeculectomy, 54.5%) and hypotony (IOP \u3c6 mm Hg at any time) (gel stent, 23.2%; trabeculectomy, 50.0%). CONCLUSIONS: At month 12, the gel stent was statistically noninferior to trabeculectomy, per the percentage of patients achieving ≥20% IOP reduction from baseline without medication increase, clinical hypotony, vision loss to counting fingers, or SSI. Trabeculectomy achieved a statistically lower mean IOP, numerically lower failure rate, and numerically lower need for supplemental medications. The gel stent resulted in fewer postoperative interventions, better visual recovery, and fewer AEs

Modified Quark-Meson Coupling Model for Nuclear Matter

The quark-meson coupling model for nuclear matter, which describes nuclear matter as non-overlapping MIT bags bound by the self-consistent exchange of scalar and vector mesons, is modified by introducing medium modification of the bag constant. We model the density dependence of the bag constant in two different ways: one invokes a direct coupling of the bag constant to the scalar meson field, and the other relates the bag constant to the in-medium nucleon mass. Both models feature a decreasing bag constant with increasing density. We find that when the bag constant is significantly reduced in nuclear medium with respect to its free-space value, large canceling isoscalar Lorentz scalar and vector potentials for the nucleon in nuclear matter emerge naturally. Such potentials are comparable to those suggested by relativistic nuclear phenomenology and finite-density QCD sum rules. This suggests that the reduction of bag constant in nuclear medium may play an important role in low- and medium-energy nuclear physics.Comment: Part of the text is reordered, revised version to appear in Phys. Rev. C. 19 pages, ReVTeX, 4 figures embedde