Community dynamics generates complex epidemiology through self-induced amplification and suppression

The development of quantitative models of outbreaks is key to their eventual control, from human and computer viruses through to social (and antisocial) activities. Standard epidemiological models can reproduce many general features of outbreaks. Unfortunately, the large temporal fluctuations which often dominate real-world data are thought to require more complicated, system-specific models involving super-spreaders, specific social network topologies and rewirings, and birth-death processes. However we show here that these large fluctuations have a generic explanation in terms of underlying community dynamics. Communities increasing (or decreasing) in size, act as instantaneous amplifiers (or suppressors) yielding a complex temporal evolution whose features vary dramatically according to the relative timescales of the community dynamics. We uncover, and provide an analytic theory for, a novel epidemiological phase transition driven by the population's response to an outbreak. An imminent epidemic will be suppressed if individual communities start to break up more frequently or join together less frequently, but will be amplified if the reverse is true

A New Measurement Method of Relative Volume Wear Ratio Based on Discharge Debris Composition Analysis in Micro-EDM

In microelectrical discharge machining (micro-EDM) milling process, due to the unavoidability of electrode wear, selection of electrode with high electrical erosion resistance and accurate electrode compensation is entitled to be conducted to ensure high precision and high quality. The RVWR is used as criterion for electrode wear characteristics and is fundamental to achieve accurate electrode compensation; however, it is hardly measured accurately with conventional methods. In this paper, firstly, the error of RVWR measured by conventional measurement method is analyzed. Thereafter, for accurately measuring RVWR, a new measurement method is proposed based on electrical debris composition analysis. The RVWR of widely used tungsten, molybdenum, and copper electrode in machining different materials is measured, respectively, and the optimum electrode is selected based on the measuring results. Finally, microgrooves on different materials are machined with tungsten electrode, and the experiment results show that the microstructures have good bottom surface profiles, which indicates that the proposed method is effective to precisely measure the RVWR and guarantee accurate electrode compensation in micro-EDM process

Human group formation in online guilds and offline gangs driven by common team dynamic

Quantifying human group dynamics represents a unique challenge. Unlike animals and other biological systems, humans form groups in both real (offline) and virtual (online) spaces -- from potentially dangerous street gangs populated mostly by disaffected male youths, through to the massive global guilds in online role-playing games for which membership currently exceeds tens of millions of people from all possible backgrounds, age-groups and genders. We have compiled and analyzed data for these two seemingly unrelated offline and online human activities, and have uncovered an unexpected quantitative link between them. Although their overall dynamics differ visibly, we find that a common team-based model can accurately reproduce the quantitative features of each simply by adjusting the average tolerance level and attribute range for each population. By contrast, we find no evidence to support a version of the model based on like-seeking-like (i.e. kinship or `homophily')

二項分類法のための粒子群最適化に基づくパラメータ推定とその応用

早大学位記番号:新7059早稲田大

Synchronization of two discrete Ginzburg–Landau equations using local coupling

Abstract: The identical synchronization of two discrete Ginzbug-Landau equations using local coupling is proved in the theory. It is based on the theory of infinite dimensional dynamical system. It is proved that the two discrete Ginzburg-Landau equations have absorbing sets and attractors. The analytic expression of Lyapunov exponent is obtained and the results are consistent with the V.Parlitz's numerical results. Discrete partial differential equation under local coupling is a new type of complex network