Bayesian Analysis for Hidden Markov Factor Analysis Models

The purpose of this chapter is to provide an introduction to Bayesian approach within a general framework and develop a Bayesian procedure for analyzing multivariate longitudinal data within the hidden Markov factor analysis framework

Hidden Markov latent variable models with multivariate longitudinal data: Hidden Markov Latent Variable Models with Multivariate Longitudinal Data

Cocaine addiction is chronic and persistent, and has become a major social and health problem in many countries. Existing studies have shown that cocaine addicts often undergo episodic periods of addiction to, moderate dependence on, or swearing off cocaine. Given its reversible feature, cocaine use can be formulated as a stochastic process that transits from one state to another, while the impacts of various factors, such as treatment received and individuals’ psychological problems on cocaine use, may vary across states. This paper develops a hidden Markov latent variable model to study multivariate longitudinal data concerning cocaine use from a California Civil Addict Program. The proposed model generalizes conventional latent variable models to allow bidirectional transition between cocaine-addiction states and conventional hidden Markov models to allow latent variables and their dynamic interrelationship. We develop a maximum likelihood approach, along with a Monte Carlo expectation conditional maximization (MCECM) algorithm, to conduct parameter estimation. The asymptotic properties of the parameter estimates and statistics for testing the heterogeneity of model parameters are investigated. The finite sample performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by simulation studies. The application to cocaine use study provides insights into the prevention of cocaine use

Bayesian Feature Extraction for Two-Part Latent Variable Model with Polytomous Manifestations

Semi-continuous data are very common in social sciences and economics. In this paper, a Bayesian variable selection procedure is developed to assess the influence of observed and/or unobserved exogenous factors on semi-continuous data. Our formulation is based on a two-part latent variable model with polytomous responses. We consider two schemes for the penalties of regression coefficients and factor loadings: a Bayesian spike and slab bimodal prior and a Bayesian lasso prior. Within the Bayesian framework, we implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method to conduct posterior inference. To facilitate posterior sampling, we recast the logistic model from Part One as a norm-type mixture model. A Gibbs sampler is designed to draw observations from the posterior. Our empirical results show that with suitable values of hyperparameters, the spike and slab bimodal method slightly outperforms Bayesian lasso in the current analysis. Finally, a real example related to the Chinese Household Financial Survey is analyzed to illustrate application of the methodology